Job loss and worse

[Jim O'Bryan]

Today the job loss rate was again over 500,000 jobs, which gives America a job loss for the last three months of over 1.5 million jobs.

Economist on TV are saying years before any recovery is actually felt. Suzie Orman, has been a little more realistic saying 2015 before the country is "comfortable."

The good news.

We live in one of the most affordable cities and regions in America.


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[Stephen Eisel]

It seems to be cyclical ...

Unemployment

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/UNRATE.txt




Oil

http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/ ... _Table.asp

[Jim O'Bryan]

[quote="Stephen Eisel"]It seems to be cyclical ...

Stephen

I would say we are on the back of the bell curve for both.

No real oil discoveries in over a decade, and no real manufacturing base to pull us out of the job loss.

FWIW


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[Stephen Eisel]

But a lot of technology jobs have been created

[Jim O'Bryan]

But a lot of technology jobs have been created

Stephen

I do not think it can really cross over. I will admit that many tech jobs have been created but the overall job loss is staggering. What do those tech jobs translate to? I am not sure I know. Do you?

On the green technology front Germany and Japan is kicking our butt. On cell phone, Scandinavia is kicking our butt. On flat screen technology, Japan is shredding us. On programing India, Israel is cleaning up along with medical technology.

What "job" will pull us out of this depression?


.

[Stephen Eisel]

Do you?

no.... feverishly searching for stats

[Jim O'Bryan]

Do you?

no.... feverishly searching for stats

I almost called you last night. Bill Moyer was doing a show about the loss of manufacturing. Of course it was slanted as they had the head of the United Steel Workers on, and a tad more dramatic. But looking through the bias and emotion it was a fascinating look at the fall out.

They have not posted it yet but it will be at:
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/podcast.xml

It was fascinating as they spoke of the people that buy technology and the bottom end. Factory workers, family of factory workers, etc. How many kids worked their way through college ion the 50s and 60s as factory workers, or workers in many of the small companies that support manufacturing. Now kids coming out of school carry massive debts. No one works their way through college anymore.

That with money tightening up, less going to college, less tech people for tech jobs. They were actually looking at one or two complete generations without college because of the job loss and money tightening. Which kills us in technology as a participant. It also makes it tougher for us to buy into new technology.

Of course the reality is slightly different. This was the view of one stream of the economy and American work force. But it is surely one of the strong roots of the past, that has all but disappeared. Have we grown a new root in technology? I do not know. I do know that it is far easier for a start up company in India to grab 30 programmers and crank out a product, than start a steel mill.

Many of us as we sit around the table, the same group that forecasted this blip in the economy, and designed the VAL. See this at not even bottoming for a couple years. By the time we reach that bottom, it will surely take at least 4-5 times longer to get back out of it. That is a solid 10-20 years of very tough to tough times ahead for a majority of Americans.

So the question will be, will the economic package shorten that span, or merely control the bleeding and immediate pain?

FWIW

PS - A quick I told you so. Had we actually been able to get community currency going when Ken Warren first started speaking of it. Had the city and merchants actually bought into it. Had some members kept to plan. The city would be at least twice as wealthy as it is now, possibly 4 times wealthier, and we would have a major college up next to Birdtown. But we were assured by many, that the idea was stupid, and evil.

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[Bill Call]

So the question will be, will the economic package shorten that span, or merely control the bleeding and immediate pain?

Obama's plan will lengthen the span and increase the bleeding.

Uncertainty about tax rates, deficits, regulations and future government behaviour have frozen economic activity. Organizations and institutions and individuals who have the plans, the money and the will to invest are holding back.

Obama's economic plan (and, sigh, George Bush's) is to print money and air drop it into communities. Economically it never works. Politically it works wonders.

[Dustin James]

Of course the reality is slightly different. This was the view of one stream of the economy and American work force. But it is surely one of the strong roots of the past, that has all but disappeared. Have we grown a new root in technology? I do not know. I do know that it is far easier for a start up company in India to grab 30 programmers and crank out a product, than start a steel mill.

Hey Jim,

Could this be apples and oranges? Maybe, maybe not. Manufacturing was always a proud part of NE Ohio. Call me an optimist, but programming is just another type of skill. Trust me, the programmers in India are pulled out of farming and thrown into cram-courses for technology. They don't argue, because it means their family might have a chance. They are very nice people. But they do not have what used to be called the American spirit (before it became politically incorrect for daring to imply that we were actually okay to be proud of our heritage). OR maybe they do, maybe the pride is in achievement and getting there.

Not preaching, but education is the only way to transition. We are living proof. Were we hit with a magic technology stick? Is it soooh special that someone in a factory doing a specific set of tasks could not be trained on? I doubt it highly. Your idea of a college near Birdtown surely could not rest on some kind of local currency? How about the currency of ideas? Innovation and "can do"? Don't give up. Even a trade oriented school could do wonders. Look at the combined talents of the Deck for your adjunct professors to start... just sayin'

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[ryan costa]

So the question will be, will the economic package shorten that span, or merely control the bleeding and immediate pain?

Obama's plan will lengthen the span and increase the bleeding.

Uncertainty about tax rates, deficits, regulations and future government behaviour have frozen economic activity. Organizations and institutions and individuals who have the plans, the money and the will to invest are holding back.

Obama's economic plan (and, sigh, George Bush's) is to print money and air drop it into communities. Economically it never works. Politically it works wonders.

so far Bush's plan is to print money and special courier right into the hands of the most innovative banks and investment houses of the 1980s and 1990s. Soon credit card companies will be declaring themselves some kind of "bank" coerced by liberal legislation into granting credit cards.

Why was manufacturing a much larger employer and sector of the economy in the 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s, and early 1970s?

progressive income taxes were much higher. Corporate income taxes were much higher. Capital gain taxes were much higher. Union membership was much higher.

If you follow the graphs, the economy performed much better for a much greater portion of the population when all of those measures were higher, at least most of the time.

why did manufacturing continue to decrease as progressive income taxes were lowered? Why did manufacturing continue to decrease as corporate income taxes fell? Why did manufacturing continue to decrease as an employment sector as capital gains taxes decreased?

Why does healthcare continue to become more expensive as management knowledge gets more specialized and more advanced?

Why is college much more expense as a ratio to median wages or average wages? Why is K-12 education much more expensive as a ratio to median wages or average wages?

[Will Brown]

I've never been comfortable with the economists who arbitrarily distinguish between manufacturing jobs and service jobs.

Are the engineers and designers who plan a new car in a service or manufacturing position? The workers who build the new car are, it seems, clearly in manufacturing positions. What about the drivers who deliver the new cars to the dealers? What about the sales force that sells the cars? What about the mechanics who service the new cars? What about the tech rep who answers your questions when you call and ask how to turn off the radio in your new car?

In the high-tech area (not that I think cars are low-tech) are the engineers who write a new program in manufacturing or service? Are the tech reps who man the phones in service or manufacturing (I think manufacturing, because I wouldn't buy a product without good support)?

I think the distinction should be between repetitive jobs, and jobs which require more thinking. When I was young, you could make a good living as a welder; today, most of the welding is done by machines, which do it better and quicker than people. Yet we let our kids go through school thinking that they will be able to make a good living as a welder! A very few of them may, but most of them will not.

I think some countries, and India is one of them, recognized that the future was in technology, and that a good education in math a science was the key to success for the individual, and they pushed their kids to develop their skill in those areas, while we didn't. If you visit an American university today and go into the science or math department, you had better be prepared to deal with accents, because most of the people with credentials to get into those fields are coming from overseas.

That makes one wonder what we will do with those of our citizens who lack the ability to achieve a technically competent education. Not a pretty picture in a country where even floor care is handled by machines. In the hospital I spend too much time in, even deliveries are handled by robots, and you have to be alert to scramble out of their path as they work their route.

As to dealing with our current economic situation, I decided to do my patriotic duty and spend my cost of living increase. Alas, virtually everything I have looked at, from computers to televisions to a new sportcoat, turns out to be imported.

[Stephen Eisel]

Why was manufacturing a much larger employer and sector of the economy in the 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s, and early 1970s?

changes in the dynamics of the world economy.. The US became more of service oriented society and shipped a large percentage of manufacturing jobs abroad.. more profit for the manufacturers... cheap labor... The World as a whole has seen a decrease in manufacturing jobs since the 1980's.. technology and automation...

[Stephen Eisel]

progressive income taxes were much higher. Corporate income taxes were much higher. Capital gain taxes were much higher. Union membership was much higher.

If you follow the graphs, the economy performed much better for a much greater portion of the population when all of those measures were higher, at least most of the time.

http://www.truthandpolitics.org/top-rates.php

http://www.ctj.org/pdf/regcg.pdf

http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/02corate.pdf

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2001/feb2001/afl-f26.shtml

Union membership fell to 16.3 million, down from 16.5 million in 1999 and a peak of 22.2 million workers in 1975. The number of union members in the US today is the same as it was in 1952, although the workforce has more than doubled over the past five decades—from 50 million to 121 million. The decline in 2000—following a small increase in 1999—resumes a trend that has seen a yearly decline in union membership for 15 of the last 20 years.