Chris Perry Teeters On The Edge of A Black Swan Event

[Bill Call]

Chris Perry's article in the most recent Observer offers a lot to think about:

http://lakewoodobserver.com/read/2012/0 ... everything

This caught my eye:

"Change is coming to Lakewood, but how much and in what form will often come from outside forces". Obvious, simple, and very insightful.

On Wednesday I found myself driving around Cuyahoga County delivering odds and ends to job sites and applying for permits. As I drove through Berea, North Olmsted and Parma I noticed a lot of neighborhoods in distress, a lot of vacant store fronts and a lot of houses that have seen better days. I was reminded again that Lakewood is in much better shape than many surrounding communities and in a better position to prosper.

Except....

As Chris pointed out: " The fact that we have.. flat-lined as a regional population=base ...while at the same time paved over 25% more land... is a blow to our regional sustainablilty".

The real question is: Even if Lakewood does everything right how can we compete in a region with declining population when regional and governing institutions are doing their best to empty the central core?

[ryan costa]

mostly,...if gasoline goes up to at least 5 bucks a gallon. and this does not also cause permanent and catastrophic economic collapse.

[Jim O'Bryan]

Ryan

Well it is headed there, for no other reason that to let America know Barack Obama is not
who we want in as president. Well not if we want cheap gas.


Bill

This has become a hot topic around breakfast tables I am at as of the incident on Waterbury.

Yesterday I saw our County Executive saying the same thing as when he removed
backyard pick up from Lakewood. To paraphrase, "We need a regional 9/11 dispatch unit.
We can do it far cheaper from a region than cities can on their own." Which I am sure at
some point, but like trash collection, not unless you spread it out over 10 years.

Also on Feagler they were talking about Westlake and Cleveland Water. Currently Westlake
has enough funds to actually resurface the streets it is updating sewer and water lines.
It was pointed out that this is more preferable than the way other cities handle things where
they decided what street to do then Cleveland Water comes in digs up the new street and
installs pipes when they can. Not only is there no working together, but Cleveland Water
cannot possible handle fixing pipe at the same time as many cities are resurfacing. That
because Cleveland Water handles so many "poorer cities" it cannot financially handle what
is needed for the region. So Westlake goes it on their own, Solon, Independence, goes it
on their own, and the rest of us are left kissing the anchor on the Titanic, so to speak.

Lakewood loses in every aspect of regionalism I have seen rolled out. Yet Lakewood, and
our leaders seem eager to sign the regional pack. It is suicide.

Cleveland, CLE +, and Team Neo are working hard with our tax dollars to bring
opportunities to Cleveland. And failing for over a decade to do so. Well let's be honest,
they have brought in some, and have had great moments like trying to convince the
owner of "Bat Boy" to move to Cleveland. Yes that is right not the creator, but the guy
that bought it when the Weekly World NEws folded. Think of how that would have turned
Cleveland around! But damn, Team Neo, even with our tax dollars could not deliver, Bat
Boy stayed in NYC.*


But back to the point. LAKEWOOD has no means of attracting business to Lakewood from
outside of the region, but luck, the grace of god, and maybe some word of mouth. We
have no program to attract residents from anywhere, except programs to bring refugees
and criminals in. So the only hope we have is to get what comes to the "region" and attract
them to live here or work here. So in fact Lakewood is competing with every city in the
region for the table scraps. So to sign into a non-compete deal with the region is suicide.
To buy into the regional agenda is suicide. To close our eyes to the discussion is suicide.
It is time for Lakewood to get proactive and break out of this regional nightmare, and say
as many of the wealthier communities have said, "No thanks, we are not leaving the area,
we just do not need to get dragged down by the failure of others. We prefer home rule.

We must make sure, Lakewood stays out as long as possible. After all we can always join,
but we have enough going on here, to say not yet. Go regional and continue to be the
"dumping ground" their words not mine, of those in serious need of services, police,
etc. Or break out, and say no more.

FWIW

* It is known that during the discussion Lakewood as a place for his office, or residence
was NEVER brought up. Though two people from Lakewood were at the table! Of course
one thought the entire thing was a farce.


.

[Bill Call]

Yesterday I saw our County Executive saying the same thing as when he removed
backyard pick up from Lakewood. To paraphrase, "We need a regional 9/11 dispatch unit.
We can do it far cheaper from a region than cities can on their own." Which I am sure at
some point, but like trash collection, not unless you spread it out over 10 years.

Also on Feagler they were talking about Westlake and Cleveland Water. Currently Westlake
has enough funds to actually resurface the streets it is updating sewer and water lines.
It was pointed out that this is more preferable than the way other cities handle things ....

The Plain Dealer is pushing for regionalization of the 911 dispatch units. I suppose there might be some minor savings for some communties but no one knows. Last year a report was issued on the proposed regionalization of Fire Departments. The report conlcuded there wouldn't be any real savings. Damn the report full speed ahead!

Our leadership is pushing for regionalization because they can't think of anything else. It never occurs to them that maybe what we need is to provide a low cost, business friendly environment.

What are they doing instead?

Building a convention center. The convention business around the country is a money loser and its only getting worse. We were sold on the new Cleveland convention center because it was part of the new Medical Mart. The Medical Mart still hasn't attracted any tenants.

Building a casino. There is so little confidence in the ability of the casino to attract out of towners that downtown hotels are sold for pennies on the dollar and converted to apartment buildings. Those apartment buildings wouldn't built without millions in taxpayer subsidies.

Those taxpayer subsidized apartment buildings compete with non subsidized apartment buildings on the Gold Coast in Lakewood. Millions in development dollars are being spent to move people three miles down the road. Is that regionalization in action?

If you want regionalization how about this:

Regionalize colleges in Cuyahoga County. Why have Tri-C and Cleveland State? Why not just one big college?

Regionalize the arts. Why have Playhouse Square when you have Beck Center? Why all those little theaters competing for dollars? Why not just one big theater?

Regionalize the foundations. Why have the Gund Foundation and the Cleveland Foundation why not just one foundation?

Oh.... I almost for got to beat the dead horse. How can we trust the institutions of Cuyahoga County with more power when our current institutions like Tri-C locate their new buildings in Medina and Lorain Counties?

Yeah.. and what about our regional water department? You know the one so poorly managed they still can't figure out how to bill their customers?

But wait!!!!

Wasn't it just a few months ago that we were told that there are 10,000 jobs in Cuyahoga County going begging because no one is qualified to do them? Now, that sounds like a job for a regional institution like Tri-C or Cleveland State. If that story is true then someone knows where those jobs are and what skills are needed. If they know that then all those experts at Tri-c and CSU should know how to provide that training. Why don't they give it a try? Isn't that the business they are in? How hard can it be?

So... A regional project we can all agree on. The regional educational insitutions seek out the companies that need those 10,000 workers and provide the training those workers need. If they successfully complete that project we can then consider other regional solutions.

I almost forgot!!

Life is so good I have two dead horses to beat. Since our regional institutions think it a good idea to relocate Cleveland's homeless to Lakewood why not a Regional Homeless Resettlement Program? Crocker Park, Bay Village, Avon Lake! A REGIONAL SOLUTION TO A REGIONAL PROBLEM!!!

[Stan Austin]

Bill---you know, sometimes you make sense!
My personal hobby horse is RTA and how its Euclid Corridor was the nail in the coffin to downtown. But that's too big of a topic for the moment.
Stan

[Jim O'Bryan]

Bill---you know, sometimes you make sense!
My personal hobby horse is RTA and how its Euclid Corridor was the nail in the coffin to downtown. But that's too big of a topic for the moment.
Stan

Stan

You cannot blame that all on RTA. There were many players in that. As I drive down Euclid
now it seems almost criminal. Starving businesses out of business to buy their property for
pennies on the dollar. Hundreds fo for profit businesses forced out for many non-profits.

What is even crazier is there is really only one bus going up and down Euclid, and that does
not service residents. The residential lines have been pushed back to Chester and Carnegie.

Accident? No, a highly orchestrated gentrification process to benefit a few at the expense
of many.

.

[Betsy Voinovich]

What happened on Euclid does seem despicable, and right out there for everybody to see. The question is what can be done about it? Or alerting those who are supposed to serve the public, that the public is not pleased? We don't get to vote on this stuff. Only on candidates.

The City of Lakewood was not able to stop a church from importing an apartmentful of young people guaranteed to raise crime levels and bring gang activity to Lakewood--
though hopefully this is not the case for each young adult in the Hidden Village re-entry program. We didn't get to vote on that? Does that qualify as a Black Swan Event?

So we know about this, about regionalism, etc about the fact that the State might be trying to implement traffic light changes in Lakewood that might be dangerous to us, and we talk about it. What do we do about it?

Betsy Voinovich

[Jim O'Bryan]

What happened on Euclid does seem despicable, and right out there for everybody to see. The question is what can be done about it? Or alerting those who are supposed to serve the public, that the public is not pleased? We don't get to vote on this stuff. Only on candidates.

Betsy, at the end of the day, all we have is vote, and protest. In Lakewood we have seen a
full schedule for years of "public committees" to study problems come in with preconceived
ideas, and then put on a charade to make the committees believe they picked it. I prefer to
give people back their lives stop the charade and let politicians make the decisions, and be
voted in or out on those ideas and actions. It would not be a very fluid government to give
us lowly voters and residents too much say in the day to day running of a city. Besides this
city like America right now seems to be 47 for, 47 against on damn near anything.

The City of Lakewood was not able to stop a church from importing an apartmentful of young people guaranteed to raise crime levels and bring gang activity to Lakewood--
though hopefully this is not the case for each young adult in the Hidden Village re-entry program. We didn't get to vote on that? Does that qualify as a Black Swan Event?

Two things on this. We did not get to vote on this. If you want to vote on who gets to
move into a city, you need to go to a gated community. Ugggh! What we want is to make
sure that no part of the Lakewood Community thinks that Hidden Village was a good idea.
When you look at this in-depth, you see that at some point someone's livelihood depended
on what happens. That a department, or program would receive grants or other funding for
taking on the program. This is true for about 65% of these programs. This is why I ask,
"Are we bringing this on ourselves?"

When it was discovered just how bad of an idea Hidden Village was, Mayor Tom George
was already on it. Not because of the program, but because the place was unsafe for that
type of business. I have spoken to many of the people involved and at no point was
anything ever discussed outside the safety of the place. But that did not matter, the owner
secured a damn good civil rights lawyer Avery Friedman, to represent their interest in a
civil case, blaming the city of Lakewood with "Racism." When you think at all going on with
this, that call is about the most unfair I have ever seen levied against this city. The effects
could be devastating, both in finances and in "brand." That can harm a city for decades.
To this day you will not get a comment out of any of the players as we are still in court.

So we know about this, about regionalism, etc about the fact that the State might be trying to implement traffic light changes in Lakewood that might be dangerous to us, and we talk about it. What do we do about it?

Detroit is a state route. In the end it will do what it wants. One reason Detroit Ave. is nice
is that it is a state route, so they help to "maintain it." Of course the downside is it is a
state route, and in the end, "they maintain it and control it." This is where protest works
and conversation and awareness. I was hoping by this time Councilman Juris would have
posted the "State Study" that recommended taking down this lights, so that we can better
understand the corner, the state has painted us into. Until I read the actual study, it is just
guesswork. I remember the traffic study for The WestEnd Development, which reported that
the area could easily handle 10X the traffic, was done on a Saturday morning at 10am
during a blizzard. In fact it was not a study of Detroit or the area at all, but a study of
the Detroit Extension and three driveways leading out of the apartments. So the study that
was always put forward as "proof" Detroit Ave could handle 10x the traffic, really meant,
"that Detroit Ave could handle 10x the traffic coming out of apartment driveways at 10am
during a blizzard with 10" of snow."

NEVER TRUST A STUDY UNTIL YOU READ IT!
Studies are generally underwritten by people trying to accomplish something.

FWIW


.

[Chris Perry]

Bill,

Thanks for taking an interest in my article and using it to launch this thread.

Good to know that some people take some curiosity into what I have to say….

Jim,

I don’t have the history that you do in Cuyahoga County and it’s ever-increasing pursuit of a regionalism agenda and it’s regionalism-privatization cheerleaders that dominate the conversation within the Plain Dealer. But like you and as others that have expressed here, in principal, I’m opposed to and wary of the flawed concept of regionalism, with the exception on a regional land-use planning/regulatory approach to better level the development or re-development playing field. I fear that on many fronts, regionalism may be a façade for privatization schemes. But in the realm of urban planning, it has proven to be beneficial as several urban areas have adopted the practice of urban growth boundaries that encompass many separate municipalities within those boundaries to foster more sustainable investment towards the inner-rings and city center while still allowing for people’s ability to vote with their feet to choose which local government, local culture, personal values or which school district best suits their needs.

With the role of a regional planning governance body properly established and empowered, its role would serve to benefit places like Lakewood and not to override localities in the name of regional collaboration, but to enable all of them to compete on a level playing field. One way to do this is to stop subsidizing development in the outer suburbs and instead require that all new houses, malls, office buildings, and other development projects pay for the roads, sewers, and utilities that serve them – thereby limiting developer and corporate welfare in which the taxpayer subsidizes their business model and sprawl. This is what is in place in Oregon, and it has proven very effective, in practice, to force many developers and financial institutions to look for and seek-out projects in and near the urban core, to the benefit of those regions and resulting in a more focused and effective urban renewal effort – not crass gentrification, rather mixed-income, higher-density and mixed-use livability.

[Bill Call]

With the role of a regional planning governance body properly established and empowered, its role would serve to benefit places like Lakewood and not to override localities in the name of regional collaboration, but to enable all of them to compete on a level playing field.

You have more confidence in central planning than I. To a large extent the problems of Cuyahoga County are caused by the central planners and government activism. It doesn't help that the people elected to office from Southern Ohio fight hard to get government investment and State jobs. Our elected representatives don't seem to care much.

My favorite example is the Nelsonville bypass to nowhere:

http://www.cleveland.com/rotunda/index. ... trick.html

The Nelsonville by pass is one year ahead of schedule:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omldcPNRfkg

Meanwhile a simple thing like building a pedestrian tunnel is behind schedule and over budget:

http://blog.cleveland.com/metro/2011/11 ... ounci.html

[Bill Call]

mostly,...if gasoline goes up to at least 5 bucks a gallon. and this does not also cause permanent and catastrophic economic collapse.

It's a little depressing to think that Lakewoods future solvency is dependent upon a bad economy. What can Cuyahoga County do to prosper in a good economy? Are widening freeways and moving Tri-C and Cleveland State to Medina County enough?

Should freeways be wider? Should the Cleveland Art Musuem locate a branch in Lorain County? Should we spend more taxpayer money to move people from apartments on Lakewood's Gold Coast to taxpayer subisidized apartments in new downtown apartment buildings that use to be taxpayer subsidized hotels?

A plethora of choices.

[michael gill]

Bill, I think it's less about proposing new construction than it is about the way we look at cities, and the fact that when it comes to cities and the construction industry, we completely forget what our parents taught us about cleaning up after ourselves.

Our cities take out the garbage, but we completely forget about the fact that in a region with a population that's stagnant at best, every new thing we build creates vacancy somewhere. We've got too many houses, offices, and retail spaces, and we keep building more without cleaning up. Therefore we spread out, dilute our resources, create greater tax burden, create ugliness and opportunity for crime.

For some reason more than 30 people in the past few days have gone back to a blog post I put up on this subject more than six months ago. Anyone out there who keeps a blog knows that's kind of unusual. The post is about my idea for "equal respect for people and ducks" when it comes to the environment we live in. Maybe it's just about the cute picture of a duck. But I don't know.

In brief: federal and state wetland legislation requires that if a developer plans to destroy a wetland, he has to do penance by repairing wetlands that had been wrecked by development somewhere else. Why do we not look after the human living environment the same way? I mentioned this to Councilman Anderson, and he suggested that the issue was that ducks have better lobbyists.

But really: Vacancy rates being what they are, with four times as many vacant and abandoned houses in Cleveland than the city has homeless people, can't we please stop making more of a mess before we clean up the stuff we're not using anymore? That, rather than the (public and private) silver bullet developments we've historically looked to for help reviving cities--is the kind of thing I think we need to make cities more competitive. Let's clean up our mess.

Here's the post.

http://gyroscopethattakesyouplaces.word ... and-ducks/

[Bill Call]

by development somewhere else. Why do we not look after the human living environment the same way? I mentioned this to Councilman Anderson, and he suggested that the issue was that ducks have better lobbyists.

Here's the post.

http://gyroscopethattakesyouplaces.word ... and-ducks/

Excellent post. The "official" media likes to think it has a monopoly on good reporting and insiteful commentary but it doesn't.

It's a bit ironic that people coming from different ideological perspectives can agree on so much.

The first rule in the "Rules Of Holes" is to stop digging when you are in so far you can't get out. Here in Cuyahoga County we keep digging.

Case in point: One of the few bright job spots in the economy is in the medical field. Lakewood has a hospital that is an important economic driver in the City. The Clinic is in the process of closing its Clague Road facility and expanding its facility on Columbia. The updated building will have state of the art operating rooms and treatment centers.

We are set to lose what remains of the hospital and people just sit and watch it happen.

[Jim O'Bryan]

But really: Vacancy rates being what they are, with four times as many vacant and abandoned houses in Cleveland than the city has homeless people, can't we please stop making more of a mess before we clean up the stuff we're not using anymore? That, rather than the (public and private) silver bullet developments we've historically looked to for help reviving cities--is the kind of thing I think we need to make cities more competitive. Let's clean up our mess.

Here's the post.

http://gyroscopethattakesyouplaces.word ... and-ducks/

Michael

My fear, and I have seen nothing to ease it is... If you goal is to manage decline and you
are successful, all you have done is decline.

While your comment makes sense, in an "open market" approach the truth is far different,
and you know it. Lakewood has/had a golden period of time where we could demand more
and we should or could have. Property, is location, location, location. People want to live in
a clean safe city, that is enjoyable. We had that, we have always had that, but then back in
the Cain days, the push was "Economic Development Will Save Lakewood!" A large portion
of the movers and shakers in this city decided, "Burgers are Better than people" Well at
least those people. When you dig down to examine why that is being put forth it borders
on insanity. BUT, what is important here is that all efforts were put into Downtown, into
storefronts, and Lakewood City Hall took their eye off the ball, and the city's crown jewels,
the homes and residents.

There is no reason that Lakewood, rated best suburb two years in a row one of the coolest
places to visit in all of America, cannot fill 20,000 living units. The only way that this
happens is by benign neglect. The way you frame it is, "Lakewood at best can get our
6.5%* of percent of Cleveland. So with less homes, my house will get rented. What we
should be thinking is how do we get 13% and a waiting list to get in. Don;t get me wrong
if I was in East Cleveland or Garfield, I would be pro regionalism, tear down those nasty
homes, give me urban farming by the blocks. But Lakewood should be playing a pretty
strong hand, instead of folding and calling it a day.
.


.

[michael gill]

Jim, I don't think requiring developers to clean up a brownfield before building on a greenfield is "managing decline." It's just cleaning up the mess. It's just responsible.

I'm not simply talking about knocking down houses, or about banking the land. I'm talking about requiring that anyone who wants to build something new be required to help clean up the superfluity of empty space the construction industry has created.

You look at this in terms of Lakewood vs. everywhere else. I'm talking abut the superfluity of buildings that plague every rust belt city, and the fact that new construction only adds to the problem, unless it is tied to cleaning up the mess.
In Lakewood, you really can't build something new without demolishing something old. Lakewood already follows this rule. Anyone building on brownfields already follows this rule. But construction still continues on what used to be farmland.

I agree that Lakewood has a great location and generally great assets, and I agree that those assets could draw people to fill 28,000 housing units. But I don't kid myself that the current set of 28,000 units are--every last one of them--attractive enough to do their part.

We both know there are lots of rickety little houses with slanted floors and water in the basement that are cost-prohibitive to repair.

This is my 21st century take on the code of Hammurabi. An acre for an acre. Clean up the mess our speculative construction industry has created. Equal respect for people and ducks. Demand it now.