Smelling Salts Please

[Jim O'Bryan]

Just curious.

Gasoline up in price, with no end in sight. Now many see the end to oil in the next ten years.

Economy/Retail - Flat, even Walmart is starting to worry as they had almost no bump over the holidays.

Retail/Online up another 35%.

National Debt growing.

Interest Rates going up for at least the next 8 quarters.

Why on earth are some still talking retail sales areas, and Crocker Park like areas?

Just curious.





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[Mark Crnolatas]

Well, it seems like there is 2 choices. Keep on keeping on, or give up and move somewhere else on the planet.

I once had a manager, Joseph B. Zito, in Las Vegas. He managed some big names, and alot of unknowns also. He had a belief that the less he knew about the rest of the world and it's negative-ism, the better off he was.

He kept building his own millions, and never bothered with world affairs.
When I left his management, he was worth scads of millions, and he and his family enjoyed the success he carved for himself, and those he cared about.

I get in some down moods sometimes. I'll notice that the reason, most of the time I get IN those down moods, are from the negative talk around me, or watching the news too much, rather than concentrate on my own world.

We have a great community here. What Iran does, or who is the next president of the U.S. really has no effect on what we all do here in our city.
Not if we choose to believe that route, as Joe Zito does.

Jim, you seem to have a vision of how you'd like to see Lakewood. It's darn good too, as I see it. OUR city, not anywhere else. I'm sure you have triggers that make you feel down at times . But, you've put yourself in a position where some people are looking to YOUR positive thinking, YOUR "lets go to it" isms, as you've established by publishing the L.O.

So what if gas goes up. We'll find solutions. So what if Walmart has a bad time. What effect does Walmart have on Bella Dubby, or any other small business in our city. Maybe indirectly, some, but directly?
I had some relatives that made a fortune during the great depression, in the '20s and all legally.
They're long gone but it did happen, in spite of what everyone around them said and did, and predicted.

Interest rates...can anyone GUARANTEE, without a doubt that they WILL go up for the next 8 quarters or more and have direct effect on us? No one can guarantee what's going to happen in the next 10 seconds, let alone 8 or more quarters.

After the pathetic way I've felt over the last few days, I got over it, for the most part. How? I started with redisovering some basics in my own home, and in my part of the universe. I made a few mistakes but I also did a few good things.

So, from the street level, I'm saying screw Walmart and screw all those other negative news type things and let's keep on keeping on. If we sit on our hands, so to speak, and for some reason none of those things happen, the world would have passed us by.

The L.O is, in my opinion, a growing positive influence on our city. Can it change it over night to Utopia? No, but if it chips away at what we all talk about on here, if we just get to know each other a little bit more, if we can drop some of the facades and whether on here, or over coffee, we can say, hey, at least we all have the same goal, to preserve and/or make our city the place we want to continue to live in, and be HAPPY in, and enjoy what we have here or can improve upon here, then we've done a LOT that all the bad news in the world can't touch.

So, while the world turns, and society is doing it's thing, however good or bad we think it's going, or someone elsee says it's going, it's our self-initiated "job" to keep our collective minds IN our city, and continue on the course this project called the L.O. , published, inspired and pushed by Jim O., in the direction it's been going. It seems to have been doing the right things so far. The many people who contribute to it, in varying degrees and ways, can take a look at the world and voice opinions if it makes anyone feel better by doing so, but I'd say the priority should remain focused in OUR part of the world, called Lakewood, Ohio. This is a good thing we have going, this place we live in. This project Jim O. started, called the L.O. is also a very good thing. I doubt anyone would want to say either are not.


Mark Allan Crnolatas
"A society or group of people exist soley in it's ability to maintain an atmosphere of peace and civility. It's failure is directly relative to the degree of the lack of these conditions".

[Joseph Milan]

Gas prices up? People have been trying to get drilling in Alaska for a decade.
This would help lower prices if it ever passes by increasing supply.

While the retail does appear flat, I wouldn't make that statement until all gift card purchases from Christmas have been made.

On line sales up is not a bad thing, and is another factor that hurts some of the retail sales, as some retail numbers are "same store purchases", etc.

Some economist say a national debt growing is not a bad thing. I disagree. Something has to be done about this.

I don't believe interest rates will be going up the next 8 quarters. The Fed minutes from their last meeting said one more hike and that's it for the foreseeable future. Neither you nor I can make this prediction one way or the other.

If a new retail area came here, I believe, depending on it's location, the entire city if not more would embrace it.

Joe

[Jim O'Bryan]

Mark

I appreciate the kind words.

But I really need to set some things right.

My vision of Lakewood is not necesarly the right vision of Lakewood it is just my vision. I am but one resident, one vote in the hollar.

The Lakewood Observer was not started by me. I am just the lucky guy that gets sued when we screw up. Someone had to own the paper legally, no one else was nuts enough to do it. The last thing I ever wanted was it to be Jim's paper.

The Lakewood observer was started by Ken Warren, Steve Davis and myself at lunch at Wu's restaurant on Madison over lunch. That afternoon, DL Meckes and Stephen Calhoun were brought on board and have dedicated way too much time to keep this going.

Not to get mushy, but everyone connected with the board, the paper, the parties, the discussion has as much ownership in my eyes.

The reason I started this thread was I have seen some amazing plans for the city over the past 6 months. Many cannot even be talked about because they are in rough stages. Others like Savannah Farris' need to be discussed. They are very powerful dreams for Lakewood and the paper is dedicated to amplifying these dreams.

Again thanks for the kind words, and I agree. We cannot elect the president of Iraq, but together we can make Lakewood a better place. This is where I have dedicated my actions here.


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[Jim O'Bryan]

Gas prices up? People have been trying to get drilling in Alaska for a decade.
This would help lower prices if it ever passes by increasing supply.

Joe, what do you really know of ANWAR? I had the pleasure of working for BP Exploration for 4 years. If you want to know about Alaska, BP is a good place to start. ANWAR could only sustain the USA for three months top. The quantity of oil there is about 10% of what was on the North Slope. Now as a realist I know that sooner or later ALL oil in the world will have to be drilled, pumped, boiled and used. It is simply a fact. But doesn't it make better strategic sense to CAP all American wells until the rest of the world sells theirs off. Than to let ours go now?

While the retail does appear flat, I wouldn't make that statement until all gift card purchases from Christmas have been made.

Joe gift cards are paid for at the time of purchase. Companies make more profit when people do not use them. The boost the news speaks of is when I take back one gift and buy somewhere else or take Grandma's dollar in the envelope off to buy something. the projection is dismal. But we do not need to wait. We know where the job market is, the human debt is, and where we are headed. You me and Mark are all in the same boat.

On line sales up is not a bad thing, and is another factor that hurts some of the retail sales, as some retail numbers are "same store purchases", etc.

On-line sales is a great thing. Limited use of energy sources, and local businesses can sell nationally or internationally.

Some economist say a national debt growing is not a bad thing. I disagree. Something has to be done about this.

Joe simple math will tell us the truth. If $.67 of every tax dollar goes to the interest, then that debt has got to be reduced to manageable levels. This is yet another reason why the surplus is gone. This is what I find so amazing with those that support that GWB needs to borrow and spend like a drunken sailor. It is insane.

I would be interested to see if any of the economists think we should only make our minimum payment on our credit cards?!

I don't believe interest rates will be going up the next 8 quarters. The Fed minutes from their last meeting said one more hike and that's it for the foreseeable future. Neither you nor I can make this prediction one way or the other.

No, but we can take the word of Alan Greenspan can't we? Although he is gone the people that run the Fed are the same. Greenspan was nothing more than the public face for the privately owned company that prints and loans us money.

If a new retail area came here, I believe, depending on it's location, the entire city if not more would embrace it.

I agree, but would they buy there? Or would it be like Crocker Park and Legacy Village. A place to go and walk and window shop. Look at their numbers.

In my simple mind, Grow Lakewood nearly nailed it. Offices not retail. Offices bring in people, people who shop at lunch, and some stay and live here. You show me someone that moves next to a mall, and I will show you someone with a shopping and a credit problem. But they missed, for obvious reason, something else that brings people to cities, and these people stay and spend money there. BIG ASS apartments/condos. Then let them order online, because they will fill the supermarkets, restaurants and entertainment in and around the city.

As I often say. This is not rocket science. The math only gets tough when you go to the fringe, with wild schemes that "might." help. The only thing that is a proven winner in Lakewood is overlooked? Why?

Lakewood should be looking for solutions that last 30 years, not 5!

Thanks for kicking it.


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[kate parker]

especially for you, ohhhbryan

http://www.ncpa.org/pub/bg/bg159/

now quit looking so glum

[Jim O'Bryan]

Kate


I feel much better now. NOT!

The report merely underlines what I am talking about, and then fluffs it off to conservation, new techniques, etc. Typical fluff to cover the problem.

Some more facts. To my knowledge, nothing has ever been built that doesn't cost more in energy to build than it creates. Oil/Coal is by far the best item ever found to recreate energy/heat/power etc. So that as oil runs down, the rush to find other energy sources will actually speed up the depletion of gas/oil/coal.

Many of the sources cited refuse to add one small factor into the equation. Cost of recovery. In 1984 BP and other oil companies started to rely on "propents" to get oil out of the ground.

Propents are small BB like items that are forced into OLD/DEAD wells under tremendous heat and pressure. These balls force apart the layers of rock more oil is hiding in. They then pump out this sludge, and process it. How ever they now have to remove the BBs, and the water, before they can even get to the oil. This causes a tremendous drain and cost on the entire system.

Let's look at Alaska, or the StatOil Fields or the Gulf of Mexico or Saudi Arabia. These systems need a place to generate VERY HOT steam and a place to store the propents(not sure if they are reusable). FRESH WATER. Well out in the Gulf, in the desert, and in the frozen tundra this becomes a problem. But if we throw money at it, it is solvable, But the cost is so great that it takes the StatOil Fields, Oil Rock in Colorado, and The Black Sands of Canada out of play right now at the current cost of oil. The same is true for that Pennsylvania Sweet Crude we keep hearing about.

Now don't get me wrong, I am all for saving American resources. Even if it means buying oil for more now from foreign sources. To me it just makes sense.

But in 5 years maybe 10 the cost of oil will cripple most who need it. The citizens of the world. Right now there is much talk about artificially pricing oil out of the reach of most consumers to "save" more for business down the road.

So even after reading the report. It too would agree that oil is finite, that there are ways to get more but they cost way to much, and that some of the forecasts could be true, but we have energy saving ways in the works that might help, but will be very expensive.

Thanks for the note and the link. But I'll trust BP notes over these.


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[Lynn Farris]

If we would have listened to President Carter, we wouldn't be in the pickle we are today. He started us on the right trend of alternative energy resources. Did you know he even put solar energy collectors on the White House? But Reagan took them off.

Solar Energy is not a total solution for Cleveland, but it is for much of the south/southwest - where it works amazingly well. In fact they are now making it look like roof tile or putting it in paint! In Cleveland, wind power is a better idea. We were just in Costa Rica and they sell power to power all of Nicaragua and 60% of Costa Rica by Wind. Then they use volcanic power for the remaining 40%. They pump water down the tubes and the steam that is generated is used for power. Pretty cool eh? Geo thermal energy is a great idea that needs to be made more cost effective.

We are looking for a diesel car that we can convert to biodiesel. (Don's project

We do need to change and this change can make us leaders in new energy fields in the world. I'm just concerned that we have an oil man in the White House who only sees oil as an energy source.

[Mark Crnolatas]

The problem seems to be the consumers. WE, the People.
Back to a example I cited on another post. During the last heat of the energy topics all over the media, people were still buying gas hog SUVs like they were popcorn. I saw that with my own eyes.

Let me fantasize a moment. If anyone in power, in the U.S government, TODAY said, "ok from next January 1, 2007, NO one in the U.S. will be allowed to purchase a gasoline-only vehicle. It MUST either be a hybrid or alternative fuel vehicle"...there would be more verbal bloodshed than any topic in man's history. The ACLU would be filing 24/7, the gasoline companies would be telling horror stories about lack of jobs will destroy our country, on and on and on.

Need proof? Just take a walk around my Joe Average Income area of Lakewood and ask the SUV, Luxury car and truck owners.

Why should we be concerned about finite oil, with consumers in our society who refuse to back down on those purchases? The car companies say that SUV purchases are down. That may be, but take a look around Lakewood.

By the way, we are ignoring deep ocean drilling, which was talked about in the Carter administration, since 70% of the earth is covered in water, therefore so are the natural resources under it . Costs can be handled one way or another but thats for another topic.

Back to the consumers. I mentioned on that post how a neighbor had that day brought home his new SUV gas guzzler.
Yesterday, 2 more new SUVs showed up in my area. Both large and immense gas-eaters. Somehow I doubt they care about oil resources.
Count the ones driving past, as we drive around. Do they care?

I think that is the primary problem at this point.

I think step 1 is society has to back off the "it's my right to drive an 8 mile a gallon vehicle so back off" type of attitude. As long as there is the demand for them, the big biz people will provide them, and the oil companies will do what they want to do to provide the oil for the gas companies etc etc etc etc etc etc . whew.


Mark Allan Crnolatas
"A society or group of people exist soley in it's ability to maintain an atmosphere of peace and civility. It's failure is directly relative to the degree of the lack of these conditions".

[Jim O'Bryan]

Mark

All good points, especially the who cares about people out of work I'm saving a $.10 at Walmart attitude that is so pervasive in the USA today.

But let's not forget the TAX CREDIT given by the US government to those that buy trucks over 2 tons! This was the biggest boom to the SUV industry.

Deep water drilling is still being pushed ahead but there are some major environmental problems. The biggest is securing the platforms so that the pipes don;t break and cause a nightmare.

At the same time ANWAR and other ideas. BP had back in the early 90s been able to side drill over two miles. At the time one of the many ideas was to side drill ANWAR. This concept was also used by Iraq, when they started to side drill Kuwait's oil reserves. (This should have been a hint that Iraq was running low on oil.)

My wife's Mini get 37 to the gallon, and easily fits four people of my size, two suitcases and an overnight bag. Where the SUVs might fit more, but are much less safe, dependable, or sensible.

For some reason my hippy brothers and sisters gave up VWs for SUVs to drive in by themselves on the way to the Dutch owned store to buy "dolphin safe" tuna for junior.

It is crazy.


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[Joseph Milan]

[quote="Jim O'Bryan]
Joe, what do you really know of ANWAR?
[/quote]
Sorry about the Alaska/ANWAR mix up. I know that not only ANWAR but also off shore drilling including in Lake Erie has been denied for environmental reasons while people continue to complain about high gas prices. If you don't like ANWAR drilling, don't complain about high gas prices.

[quote="Jim O'Bryan]
Joe gift cards are paid for at the time of purchase.
[/quote]
But they are not included in the GDP until they are actually used. Furthermore, companies post them as a credit until they are used. Once the care is used, it is considered as a sale.

[quote="Jim O'Bryan]
No, but we can take the word of Alan Greenspan can't we? Although he is gone the people that run the Fed are the same. Greenspan was nothing more than the public face for the privately owned company that prints and loans us money.
[/quote]

If you look at Mr. Greenspan's words, the Fed is only (again) considering one more rate hike. The Stock markets all shot up when hearing this last week. The S&P index is at a 4 1/2 year high. Where are you getting information saying 8 rate hikes are being considered in the near future?


[quote="Jim O'Bryan]
In my simple mind, Grow Lakewood nearly nailed it. Offices not retail. Offices bring in people, people who shop at lunch, and some stay and live here.
[/quote]
I still say we need a good mix of office/retail/ and residential. Bring in only offices and people will complain about a service only economy.

Joe

[Jim O'Bryan]

Sorry about the Alaska/ANWAR mix up. I know that not only ANWAR but also off shore drilling including in Lake Erie has been denied for environmental reasons while people continue to complain about high gas prices. If you don't like ANWAR drilling, don't complain about high gas prices.

I am not against ANWAR drilling. To me it is like taxes. It is enevtable. But why not do it at the high end and and save our oil for when the rest of the world runs out. Again drilling in Lake Erie is problematic for a variety of reason. Biggest: thrid largest supply of fresh water in the world! Water is the new oil.

But they are not included in the GDP until they are actually used. Furthermore, companies post them as a credit until they are used. Once the care is used, it is considered as a sale.

So then Walmart and the US has nothing to worry about?! As soon as these cards come in, it will shoot up like a roacket! First I am not sure of this, second where do the profits kand while we wait?

If you look at Mr. Greenspan's words, the Fed is only (again) considering one more rate hike. The Stock markets all shot up when hearing this last week. The S&P index is at a 4 1/2 year high. Where are you getting information saying 8 rate hikes are being considered in the near future?

Again I will go back and to be correct I believe the number would be 6 not eight. It was about a half year ago where he mentioned that it would be a 1/4% hike for the next 8 meetings.

I still say we need a good mix of office/retail/ and residential. Bring in only offices and people will complain about a service only economy.

I less worried about compaints than what will actually work especially long term. I am not against economic development, but it should be thoughtful. I am not sure it always is. Grow Lakewood crunched the numbers and they said offices make more sense than retail. Now I couldn't help but notice some other things were missing in the report.


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[Dana Baker]

Mr. Crnolatas,

point number one:

We just purchased a car-based SUV. Not only does it get the same gas milage as our almost a decade old Civic, but I can safely drive it on our usually unplowed street this winter. Last winter we had over $800.00 of damage done to our car in part because an obnoxious neighbor plowed his driveway's snow into a drift at the bottom of our driveway. That won't be a problem this year.

point number two:

According to organizations such as Consumer Reports, hybrids aren't really all they're hyped to be. Not to mention that the higher purchase and maintenence prices aren't really offset by the gas savings unless the gas prices go up to around $4 a gallon and stay there. Hybrids are a nice start, but mandating them merely puts hardship on people who are having a hard time getting a car in the first place. Not those buying Durangos, but those who just want a basic car that will get them from point A to point B, like a Civic, or some other small, cheap car. There were several articles about this online last fall.

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Alternative energy, such as Wind Power are far more feasable than solar power, although even that technology is better than it was 30 years ago. (My father worked for Ohio Edison for a while, back in the day.) I would love to see some Windmills along Lake Erie, however, I don't know enough about them to have a reliable, informed opinion about them. Will they produce as much power as the plants we have now? will that power be reliable? will it expand to meet our expanding needs? It's not like people are going to be needing less energy, people keep having babies. The more people, the more energy needed in our technological society. Will that energy be as cheap as the energy we purchase now, or will it cost more? Will it cost less?

I've found that both "liberals" and "conservatives" are unwilling to really look for the answers. most who consider themselves "liberal" tend to say "mandate hybids!" without really looking into cost-effectiveness, and those who call themselves "conservative" support screwing the consumer to benefit big business.

[Mark Crnolatas]

It's Mark, we're not that formal here, are we? Mr. Crnolatas is my dad.

Anyway, I'm not attacking each person who buys an SUV. My point is that the truck based SUV's in general do get lower gas mileage than an average sedan or compact car. If everyone in the U.S., by the stroke of a magic wand suddenly all drove Hummer H2s, I'd say we'd be using gasoline a LOT more than we are now. If by the next stroke of the wand, we're all driving Honda Insights, at 60 mpg, we'd be using a LOT LESS gasoline than we do now ( http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lists/gasmileage/ ) .

Yes those are extremes but it's just the point I'm trying to make about the consumers, me included as a whole. We as a country could change the energy demand by what we all buy, but in general, it's not in us to do. We've proved that after the phony '70s gas crisis. We were fast to abandon all the alternative energy options that were talked all over the media, big business, and government, 24/7 while that lasted.

By the way, I was on the road, then, and I can name at least 30 people who I was on the road with, as we passed tons of oil wells that were just idle, out west. That whole thing was such a sick scam it was pathetic. We even talked to some people out west about it, and they even TOLD us, their rigs could produce oil but they chose not to turn them back on. Can we spell "forced price gouging"?

Real world contact with real world people tends to bring out facts a lot more than a whole building full of books written by so called "experts" who never were "there", I've found as a rule.

Mark Allan Crnolatas
"A society or group of people exist soley in it's ability to maintain an atmosphere of peace and civility. It's failure is directly relative to the degree of the lack of these conditions".

[Jim O'Bryan]

Dana

Unlike Mark I am willing to go toe to toe with you one your SUV. There is no way that your Honda, if tuned with properly inflated tires get as bad as mileage as does you SUV. I am willing to bet at least a 10 mpg difference. It is not possible. Rework the numbers. What kind of SUV is it?

Now go to consumers report, your reference material and read that SUVs are much less safe than a car in almost every category, except side impact from another SUV. The Mini is the safest car in the country, only vehicle to get flying marks in every category. Let's also look at cost to repair!!!

Now I am not saying you do not need a SUV, you might. I know people that need extended cab vans for work. But safe and economy is not a good argument it is false.

Hybrids - The batteries are some of the most toxic items in the world. They are being dumped into third world countries, and polluting their lives. Throw in the cost, and energy needed to make them. I think we can all do better.

Wind - Right now the Federal government has wind indicators on the Crib. The jury is still out on if there is enough wind to make it worthwhile. We already know with the best solar panels, we do not get enough solar energy to pay them off. However there are some things we can do to save energy at home and in cars. Taping windows, heated floors, and over inflated tires to start.

Sorry, I am sure the SUV is nice, but what kind is it, and let's crunch the numbers.

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