Lakewood: Its Place on the Liberal - Conservative Continuum

[Kenneth Warren]

Where is Lakewood located on the conservative - liberal/ red - blue/ south - north /white black ideological continuum?

A new study by the Bay Area Center for Voting Research ranks the nation’s 237 cities with populations of more than 100,000 in two categories...most politically conservative and liberal.

The report is worth reading and considering in terms of Lakewood's demographics, self-selecting populations, where the city is going on the ideological spectrum and the broader relationship to the geography disinvestment occuring around fresh water shed midwestern cities with high African American populations.

BACVR researchers examined voting patterns.

Perhaps Ed Herman's percentage of the vote in Lakewood could give us a sense of where Lakewood might be placed on the continuum.

In addition, the upcoming Council race will also give some measure of where the city might be on the ideological spectrum.

Perhaps this research paper provides a framework for gauging Lakewood's politics.

"The registered voters of the largest twenty cities in the United States cast votes for liberal candidates 67.31% of the time on average, with 37.59% choosing conservative candidates as seen in the chart below."

Has anyone been tracking voting patterns?

The researchers regard race as a primary marker in the ideological spectrum.

"The list of America’s most liberal cities is dominated by cities with large African American populations that are concentrated in the Northeast, Midwest and California. Conversely, the study found that the staunchest conservative cities are clustered in the South and interior West and have extremely low numbers of African American residents.

“Detroit and Provo epitomize America’s political, economic and racial polarization,â€Â￾ said Jason Alderman a BACVR director. “As the most conservative city in America, Provo is overwhelmingly white and solidly middle class. This is in stark contrast to Detroit, which is impoverished, black and the most liberal.â€Â￾

Here are some excerpts from the report, which I organized by theme:

RACE

"Cities with predominantly large African American populations ended up as the most liberal cities in America, while the cities with the largest Caucasian populations wound up as the most conservative. These strong correlations seem to indicate that African American votes continue to support primarily liberal candidates. A survey of income and economic status indicates that poorer and less educated than average regions also tend to vote for liberal candidates at a higher rate than their conservative counterparts, indicating that liberal candidates may be ahead in capturing those with concerns about the state of government run social programs and poverty.


MARRIAGE RATES

Another major correlation appears between marriage rate and the tendency to vote for conservative candidates, as liberal cities appeared to have more single voters than conservative cities with marriage rates at or above the national average. This data indicates that family centered voters surprisingly voted more for conservative candidates, demonstrating the success of conservative candidates to appear as the more moral, family oriented candidates in a way that did not appeal as much to single voters. Population size also seems to have a significant effect, with larger urban environments tending to favor liberal candidates by a wider margin than those with smaller population sizes, demonstrating the success of liberal candidates in large metropolitan areas where concerns about social programs and poverty spoken of against the incumbent Bush administration were most salient. Suburban or mid-sized cities were on the whole more conservative and split in the 2004 presidential election, with conservative candidates receiving more votes in these areas than from their urban counterparts. These demographic issues indicate that racial makeup, income rates, regional location, marital status, and population size all combine to affect the propensity of American cities to vote on either side of the ideological spectrum.

SEXUAL ORIENTATION

In the top liberal cities 39.1 percent of males are married and 33.5 percent of females are married. This is significantly lower than the national average which has marriage rates at 56.7 percent for males and 52.1 percent for females. This may be as the result of the large number of gays and lesbians who are unable to legally marry and are more likely to live in predominantly liberal cities where the social and political climate is more accepting of their sexual orientation. Since many GLBT voters traditionally vote for liberal candidates as well, this may explain both why these cities continue to vote for liberal candidates and why the marriage gap is so much larger in these cities. This information becomes even more interesting when examining the top conservative cities and their marriage rates. For these cities, the average marriage rate is 57.4 percent for men and 53.2 percent for women. .....

The average marriage rates for conservative cities are higher than the national average and significantly higher than the averages of the liberal cities. This shows that religious individuals and those with more traditional values are indeed more drawn to conservative candidates. Conservative cities such as Hialeah, Florida, Gilbert, Arizona and Peoria, Arizona helped increase the overall average by possessing extremely high marriage rates.....

ORGANIZED LABOR IN THE MIDWEST

The twenty-five most liberal cities in the United States share much different characteristics than their conservative counterpartsâ€â€￾many have large African American populations, large portions of the populations are single, many are larger cities located in urban environments, and lower average levels of income and education are prevalent. The top twenty-five liberal cities come mostly from the traditionally liberal Northeast and West coast, with a surprising number of cities near the top coming from the Midwest. This confirms that the Northeast and West coast continue to be liberal strongholds in America, but also indicates that the Midwest is beginning to shift closer to the liberal end of the spectrum.
Detroit, Michigan tops the list of the twenty-five most liberal cities in the United States. Unlike Provo, Detroit is a large metropolitan center with a population of 951,270. As the center of America’s auto industry Detroit is an industrial unionized environment where more than a quarter of the population is below the poverty line and contains a large African American population, which in turn all contributed to its support for liberal candidates. Liberal candidates garnered 93.96% of the vote in Detroit while conservative candidates held onto amere 6.04% of the vote. Other cities with over 90% liberal votes include: Gary, Indiana; Berkeley, California; the District of Columbia and Oakland, California. The other top liberal cities in the top twenty-five range from 78% to 90% votes for liberal candidates. Conservative candidates got from 6% to 22 % of the vote in the liberal cities."



America's Most Liberal Cities

1 - - Detroit, Michigan
2 - - Gary, Indiana
3 - - Berkeley, California
4 - - District of Columbia
5 - - Oakland. California
6 - - Inglewood, California
7 - - Newark, New Jersey
8 - - Cambridge, Massachusetts
9 - - San Francisco, California
10- - Flint, Michigan
11- - Cleveland, Ohio
12- - Hartford, Connecticut
13- - Paterson, New Jersey
14- - Baltimore, Maryland
15- - New Haven, Connecticut
16- - Seattle, Washington
17- - Chicago, Illinois
18- - Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
19- - Birmingham, Alabama
20- - St. Louis, Missouri
21- - New York, New York
22- - Providence, Rhode Island
23- - Minneapolis, Minnesota
24- - Boston, Massachusetts
25- - Buffalo, New York
26- - New Orleans, Louisiana
27- - Ann Arbor, Michigan
28- - Jersey City, New Jersey
29- - Portland, Oregon
30- - Daly City, California
31- - Atlanta, Georgia
32- - Dallas, Texas
33- - Hayward, California
34- - Madison, Wisconsin
35- - Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
36- - St. Paul, Minnesota
37- - Los Angeles, California
38- - Rochester, New York
39- - Memphis, Tennessee
40- - Milwaukee, Wisconsin
41- - Vallejo, California
42- - Dayton, Ohio
43- - Bridgeport, Connecticut
44- - Springfield, Massachusetts
45- - Syracuse, New York
46- - Jackson, Mississippi
47- - Jackson, Mississippi
48- - Akron, Ohio
49- - Denver, Colorado
50- - Richmond, Virginia
51- - El Monte, California
52- - Pasadena, California
53- - Toledo, Ohio
54- - Eugene, Oregon
55- - Elizabeth, New Jersey
56- - Cincinnati, Ohio
57- - Santa Rosa, California
58- - Worcester, Massachusetts
59- - Kansas City, Missouri
60- - Kansas City, Kansas
61- - Durham, North Carolina
62- - Sunnyvale, California
63- - Alexandria, Virginia
64- - Fremont, California
65- - Tallahassee, Florida
66- - Pomona, California
67- - Lansing, Michigan
68- - Erie, Pennsylvania
69- - Savannah, Georgia
70- - Long Beach, California
71- - Sacramento, California
72- - Greensboro, North Carolina
73- - Hollywood, Florida
74- - San Jose, California
75- - Norwalk, California
76- - Lowell, Massachusetts
77- - Aurora, Colorado
78- - Columbus, Ohio
79- - Concord, California
80- - Norfolk, Virginia
81- - Salinas, California
82- - Columbia, South Carolina
83- - South Bend, Indiana
84- - North Las Vegas, Nevada
85- - Oxnard, California
86- - Fort Lauderdale, Florida
87- - Portsmouth, Virginia
88- - Raleigh, North Carolina
89- - Pembroke Pines, Florida
90- - Burbank, California
91- - Glendale, California
92- - Stamford, Connecticut
93- - Austin, Texas
94- - Virginia Beach, Virginia
95- - Salt Lake City, Utah
96- - Tacoma, Washington
97- - Des Moines, Iowa
98- - Athens, Georgia
99- - Bellevue, Washington
100 - Hampton, Virginia
101 - Brownsville, Texas
102 - Little Rock, Arkansas
103 - West Covina, California
104 - Orlando, Florida
105 - St Petersburg, Florida
106 - Downey, California
107 - Fontana, California
108 - Tampa, Florida
109 - San Bernadino, California
110 - Augusta, Georgia
111 - Beaumont, Texas
112 - Stockton, California
113 - Aurora, Illinois
114 - Warren, Michigan
115 - Laredo, Texas
116 - El Paso, Texas
117 - Grand Rapids, Michigan
118 - Coral Springs, Florida
119 - San Diego, California
120 - Miami, Florida
121 - Nashville-Davidson, Tennessee
122 - Santa Ana, California
123 - Joliet, Illinois
124 - Rockford, Illinois
125 - Charlotte, North Carolina
126 - Tempe, Arizona
127 - Yonkers, New York
128 - Fayetteville, North Carolina
129 - Cedar Rapids, Iowa
130 - Reno, Nevada
131 - Fort Collins, Colorado
132 - Pueblo, Colorado
133 - Las Vegas, Nevada
134 - San Buenaventura, California
135 - Moreno Valley, California
136 - Tucson, Arizona
137 - Ontario, California
138 - Huntsville, Alabama
139 - Newport News, Virginia
140 - Salem, Oregon
141 - Peoria, Illinois
142 - Knoxville, Tennessee
143 - Spokane, Washington
144 - Winston-Salem, North Carolina
145 - Albuquerque, New Mexico
146 - Honolulu, Hawaii
147 - Columbus, Georgia
148 - Grand Prairie, Texas
149 - Chattanooga, Tennessee
150 - Green Bay, Wisconsin
151 - Louisville, Kentucky
152 - Waterbury, Connecticut
153 - Lakewood, Colorado
154 - Montgomery, Alabama
155 - Indianapolis, Indiana
156 - Shreveport, Louisiana
157 - Independence, Missouri
158 - Westminster, Colorado
159 - Manchester, New Hampshire
160 - Chula Vista, California
161 - Palmdale, California
162 - Sterling Heights, Michigan
163 - Fort Worth, Texas
164 - Topeka, Kansas
165 - Vancouver, Washington
166 - Fresno, California
167 - Mobile, Alabama
168 - Riverside, California
169 - Irvine, California
170 - Lexington-Fayette, Kentucky
171 - Torrance, California
172 - Phoenix, Arizona
173 - McAllen, Texas
174 - Arvada, Colorado
175 - San Antonio, Texas
176 - Henderson, Nevada
177 - Houston, Texas
178 - Springfield, Illinois
179 - Evansville, Indiana
180 - Livonia, Michigan
181 - Baton Rouge, Louisiana
182 - Irving, Texas
183 - Omaha, Nebraska
184 - Boise City, Idaho
185 - Thousand Oaks, California
186 - Mesquite, Texas
187 - Lincoln, Nebraska
188 - Sioux Falls, South Dakota
189 - Modesto, California
190 - Costa Mesa, California
191 - Oceanside, California
192 - Naperville, Illinois
193 - Fort Wayne, Indiana
194 - Springfield, Missouri
195 - Chesapeake, Virginia
196 - Pasadena, Texas
197 - Waco, Texas
198 - Jacksonville, Florida
199 - Chandler, Arizona
200 - Anaheim, California
201 - Clarksville, Tennessee
202 - Carrollton, Texas
203 - Corpus Christi, Texas
204 - Scottsdale, Arizona
205 - Fullerton, California
206 - Santa Clarita, California
207 - Glendale, Arizona
208 - Wichita, Kansas
209 - Garland, Texas
210 - Rancho Cucamonga, California
211 - Tulsa, Oklahoma
212 - Lancaster, California
213 - Huntington Beach, California
214 - Overland Park, Kansas
215 - Anchorage, Alaska
216 - Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
217 - Clearwater, Florida
218 - Corona, California
219 - Simi Valley, California
220 - West Valley City, Utah
221 - Garden Grove, California
222 - Cape Coral, Florida
223 - Arlington, Texas
224 - Allentown, Pennsylvania
225 - Peoria, Arizona
226 - Escondido, California
227 - Mesa, Arizona
228 - Orange, California
229 - Lafayette, Louisiana
230 - Bakersfield, California
231 - Colorado Springs, Colorado
232 - Gilbert, Arizona
233 - Plano, Texas
234 - Hialeah, Florida
235 - Abilene, Texas
236 - Lubbock, Texas
237 - Provo, Utah

for more see:

http://www.votingresearch.org/Reports.html

Kenneth Warren

[Stephen Calhoun]

Elsewhere on the deck I have made an inquiry about what people know about the status of the antiwar movement and anti-war sentiment in Lakewood. (I’m hoping Slife and I will tackle the issue of Lakewood attitudes about the war in Iraq.)

In the aftermath of the election in 2004, I tracked closely, (since it is a longstanding pet interest,) the interpretation of why people voted the way they do. There really are two distinct kinds of interepretation. First is the ‘interested’ and biased sort. It elucidates not facts about voting patterns, rather it purposes its interpretation for political reasons. In other words, it spins the results. A good example of this is the strictly red/blue winner-take-all data that supposes that a geographic ‘majority’ is no different than a numerical majority.

Later, as better data comes to the fore, there is the second kind of interpretation, for which disinterested analysis in the mode of social science results in more scientific understanding. (At its most scientific it isn’t immune from bias, but, the inherent biases are clearly identified and taken into account in the research model.)

With respect to demographic analysis of the nature of a community’s flux and plurality of ‘belief systems’ (political or other kinds,) of course we come to very rich and highly elaborate pictures of multiplicity.

As it is with this approach, the broad picture of the election results, for example, draws the map in shades of red-purple-blue.

A map of Lakewood would similarly configure an estimation of beliefs in terms of gradiations. Based in voting results a purple-oriented map might be drawn from ward (?) results.



This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Text and images may be freely distributed. We would appreciate hearing from you if you wish to make use of our work.

Cartographic depictions of voting patterns:
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

Wikipedia: red state - blue state divide
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_states

***

My intuitive, (and biased,) sense of first seeing the election map elaborated in finer gradiations (by county) is that in many ways the bluest areas track accurately the centers of gravity of the anti-Viet Nam war movement some 30-35 years ago. There are reasons, if this is a fair enough hypothesis, that this unusual correspondance is accurate. It might even be more accurate to suggest that the reddest areas today track areas which 35 years ago were the least likely to be anti-war and 'counter-cultural'.

[Paul Beegan]

In response to the discussion evaluating Lakewood as politically liberal or conservative...Though I do not have any of the wonderful supporting data, my sense is that Lakewood is truly a microcosm of our country and has a very diverse political cross section. And I think we vote issues more than politics.

On national issues, I think Lakewood citizens can easily side on issues disregarding the economics. For example, opposing the use of Eminent Domain is actually a conservative value and Smart Growth is a liberal value. I see both my liberal and conservative friends jumping the fences on both these issues. Driving the streets in November 2004 I saw an equal number of Bush and Kerry yard signs. Similarly, I think Lakewood has an equal share of Iraq war supporters and non-supporters.

Local issues are more complex and I think gain support across party lines based on the success of divorcing the issue from its economic impact. For example, a tax increase for schools or the library or the metroparks. I'm not sure Lakewood citizens have a real understanding of the economics behind the issues but think schools, the library, and the metroparks are good things and so vote in support for them.

Understanding how economics and issues are tied together is very important. We live in a city with rising costs for municipal services and a declining tax base. Conservative or liberal, how we face this issue together will define the politics of our city.

If anyone can find out, I would be very interested in learning more about the politics of Ann Arbor, Michigan. I think Lakewood, though not a college town, is similar in size and diversity.