The Observation Deck

...return of the inner ring.

If you scratch out a calculation of the difference between driving a sixty mile round trip to work in a 15mpg guzzler and a twenty mile round trip in a 30mpg compact car, the difference in monetary overhead is obvious.

Although employment is widely distributed in NEO, living close to work offers a premium as far as overhead goes that over time may begin to amplify the advantages of living closer to the work site.

I'll be tracking this issue. It may start to become apparent that there might be a 'critical mass' point at which time the inner ring becomes the place to live simply as a matter of the cost of commuting.

Also, I do not know, (but could find out!) if a 5,000+ sq.ft Mcmansion is cheaper to climate control than a 50+ year old legacy <3,000 sq.ft, but there too is an opportunity to retrofit or otherwise modernize with the purpose of cutting householder overhead.

(I've long maintained that communitarian efforts to help people live within their means at all levels is a hidden factor in stabilizing and sustaining city and civic benefits.

What, am I going to die now just because I looked at this blank post, like in that movie about the videotape? That's utterly ridiculo

Clever Brian. I never saw that movie, but this is all complete bullsh

NYT today:

Rethinking the Country Life as Energy Costs Rise
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/25/business/25exurbs.html

Steven

I agree that this will become an increasingly interesting issue to observe/study.

It may get tough for exurbanites.....What are you going to do when you're stuck in a four lease of a Navigator that you can't get out of because of the trade in value collapse? Even if you decide to move closer in, with the real estate market and potential deminished interest in long gas guzzling commutes, many may find themselves upside down in their McMansions....Especially if they were a stretch to build/purchase (I have a client/plumber who once told me that many of those big beautiful houses are essentially unfurnished...)

Foreclosure crisis on the horizon for the "affluent" outer rings?

Jeff

I also read something in the WSJ recently that a pretty big percentage of these McMansions are owned by 50-to-60-somethings with 25+ years left on a mortgage and no way to pay them off before retirement. The plan, of course, was to sell one day close to retirement and put the ever-increasing property value to use. Great plan until the property values started declining.

I also think businesses might also start making the move back into center city. Like I posted on another thread, the talent pool for a company in Avon gets a lot smaller when far east siders stop applying due to commute costs. Similarly, I'm not sure I'd take a job out at Progressive now, but I would have two years ago.

Jeff Endress wrote:Foreclosure crisis on the horizon for the "affluent" outer rings?

Jeff

I think it is possible but not likely, at least not in Northern Ohio. Why?

1. Northern Ohio is not all that spread out. The trip from Avon to Downtown is only 10 minutes longer than the trip from Lakewood to Downtown.

2. Most of the development money is being spent in the outer burbs, much of it is taxpayer supported. Do you think the politicians will let The Jacobs Group lose its money on its recent Avon development plans?

3. Congress won't let it happen. The new mortgage "crisis" legislation has a proposal in it to offer credits for home buyers.

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/15575616/detail.html

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And these proposals are from Republicans!

I once made a tongue in cheek suggestion that the feds would ultimately fund a new Department of Guaranteed Annual Housing Appreciation. I forgot that todays stupid idea becomes tomorrow's policy.

Stop thinking about how Lakewood will be saved by the collapse of Avon or Avon Lake. It's not going to happen.

We live in a kleptocracy. In a kleptocracy the first duty of the citizen is to get a bigger piece of the action. Instead of concentrating our minds on hoping for someone elses failure we should concentrate our minds on being better burglars.

the higher fuel costs may reverse the expansion of rotting urban cores.

many young urban professionals grew up listening to gangsta rap on MTV and Fox sitcoms and in their car stereos, so they aren't as bothered by modern "urban" realities.

So is this supposed to be a good or bad thing for Lakewood?

The move to the inner ring is just not going to happen. Why? Because most of the jobs are in the suburbs. Here is a good analysis from the Los Angeles Times:

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Why? Because otherwise sensible congressman think it's a good idea for the government to pay for your gasoline. Think of it as gas stamps instead of food stamps:

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Why? Because the laws congress passes are bought and paid for, not debated and thought through. It's like when you go to Spitzer and order that new convertable with all the extras. The well heeled pay your congressman to write laws to specific specifications:

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Off course sometimes the congress can't be bothered to write the laws ordered by the buyer. They just let the buyer write the law. Then all the congressman has to do is submit it. Think of it as eliminating the middle man:

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Billion dollar subsidies to developers for downtown housing is not going to bring people back to the city either. If you insist on a billion dollar subisdy then provide the subsidy for office buildings and light industry.

A policy to bring 20,000 to Downtown Cleveland would do more to bring people back to the City than subsidies for downtown housing. But thats not going to happen either. Why? Re-read number 4.

Bill Call wrote:
We live in a kleptocracy. In a kleptocracy the first duty of the citizen is to get a bigger piece of the action. Instead of concentrating our minds on hoping for someone elses failure we should concentrate our minds on being better burglars.

And safe keepers at home.


Bill, we both know the Federal Government does not have ANY money. This is going to get ugly.

One saving grace, instead of 100 MPG carburetors, ∞ mile internet and video conferencing. Some of my favorite clients are the ones I have met face to face once or less.

I can see the outer rings failing rapidly, and see no one move to Cleveland for the work, or convenience. However, for a 30 year tax abatement, maybe. It would seem that many home buyers can only do simple math. Cost + taxes. So tax abatements seem very attractive to them.

FWIW


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Death of the mall?


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Mike Coleman wrote:Death of the mall?


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What makes this even more troubling is that Lakewoodites had been promised, "malls" would save us. They would drive from all over the county to buy at Lakewood's malls.

Good, clean, safe housing in a fun city, never goes out of style.


FWIW



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Jim O'Bryan wrote:What makes this even more troubling is that Lakewoodites had been promised, "malls" would save us. They would drive from all over the county to buy at Lakewood's malls.

You still need a place to shop.

The article mentions that JC Penny is looking to build free standing stores. One department store in Lakewood would enhance the profitablity of locally owned smaller stores in the City.

Every crisis is an opportunity.

Bill Call wrote:

Jim O'Bryan wrote:What makes this even more troubling is that Lakewoodites had been promised, "malls" would save us. They would drive from all over the county to buy at Lakewood's malls.

You still need a place to shop.

The article mentions that JC Penny is looking to build free standing stores. One department store in Lakewood would enhance the profitablity of locally owned smaller stores in the City.

Every crisis is an opportunity.

Do you?

What do you need to shop for?

One of the many theories thrown out in the now infamous, Visionary Alignment for Lakewood, is the thought will high cost of oil, we had at $6 a gallon, by 2010 is that cities would need to go back to what they were like in late 1800s. That Lakewood's streets were perfectly designed for that era.

Of course many of the needed business for this has disappeared. With the increase in sales of online clothes and shoes, I can see where shoe repair shops and tailors will be needed.

Specialty shops for needed items popping up in more forms. Like butcher shops used to be. 6 on Madison Ave. Lakewood Hardware is a perfect example. Less gas to get there, and you do not need to buy 24 bolts, when one is needed.

Last week I was speaking with the owner of a Mexican Restaurant, about the cost of doing business. He mentioned they are driving twice a week to Chicago to pick up tortillas, and other items. I asked about cost. He claimed that the cost in Chicago (a major hub) was 1/3rd the cost in Cleveland. It was so much cheaper, that they easily recovered gas costs. They sell them in their small store next door as well for 1/2 the price of chains.

This is just the first stage of what will be a monumental change of our lives.



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