The Observation Deck

Let's imagine. We make a total pull-out of Iraq, and Afganistan. Iran is the only country with nuclear capability besides the possibility of Israel.

1) What country there could stand up to Iran, besides Israel?
Irregardless of who is the next President, will that next president abandon Israel. None since Isreal was created have. All have provided Isreal with weapons, finances, miilitary assistance etc.

2) Iran is determined to see the U.S. fall. Is this new? It wasn't new in 1970 when I was in the general area. A few other countries fall into the same category also. Hating the U.S. did not start with the Gulf 1.
In 1970 we were hated by several countries of the mideast, to the same degree as today. I was there, I saw it, heard it, felt it, and know it.
Exactly where, as I've mentioned in this board before, is a matter of OPSEC.

3) Are we prepared to pay 10 or more dollars per gallon of gas if we could get oil to begin with at all, if Iran becomes the dominant country and overshadows the rest of the oil-price setters? What would they do to stop Iran, throw rocks and shoot AK 47s at nuclear weapons?
Do we realize this could happen in less than 1 - 2 years if any of their friendly countries gives them an assist ie: N.Korea by selling them some related weapons and systems?

How many auto makers in the U.S have produced vehicles that we could use?
How well prepared are we, to function with very little or no oil from the mideast?

It seems to me, it really doesn't matter who is or becomes President, the fact remains, that Iran is building up it's military and nuclear capability. It out and out made the public statement it would "wipe Israel off the map.

Where does either party stand on Iran? Where do we here on the Deck stand on Iran?

I don't see Iran as a major threat, or a nuclear threat.

I doubt they intend to use Nuclear weapons on anyone. If they used one they would immediately be carpet bombed by conventional air power, guided missiles, etc. They wouldn't even succeed in destroying a great percentage of whoever their enemies are at the time.

Having a nuke is just the cool thing to do. It's cooler than having jet fighters and tanks.

There's no net benefit to us propping up Israel: they don't have oil. They have a few nukes. They've got Joe Lieberman appearing on infomercials asking us to donate money to settle Russian Jews and converts to Judaism in Israel. Middle Easterners feel towards Israel what our own reactionaries feel towards Cuba.

Iran doesn't want to see the U.S. "Fall". They resent U.S. influence in the region. At most they want our influence there to end. The rest gets lost in translation and the rhetoric of crowds.

If you're worried about gasoline being ten dollars a gallon, you would address your fears more effectively by dogging our Pro-Free-Traders. Free Trade is justified by the claim it will allow the rest of the world to live "like us". Until recently China was a net-exporter of oil: they are progressing. Ultimately we will have no economic interest in Middle Eastern oil: about 5 billion people nearer by will be able to pay more for it than us. At most we can count on oil from West Africa and South America for a little longer: It is closer, and they use less. They say the Iraq war will cost 2.1 trillion when all the bills are due: maybe that would have been better spent subsidizing oil procurements or rebuilding America to not be based on sprawl.

The entire middle east is ultimately a disaster area. fortunately it isn't an industrial super power. It is a commodity exporter on the verge of famine and ecological disaster. They can't engage in a world war, they can only offer moral support to industrial super powers fighting over them.

Mark

Some interesting questions, but I think you've lost the global focus.

Are we prepared to pay 10 or more dollars per gallon of gas if we could get oil to begin with at all, if Iran becomes the dominant country and overshadows the rest of the oil-price setters?

Oil is a global commodity. If it's a thousand dollars a barrel for us, it is for everyone. I dare say that the Chinese would weigh in on the pricing of oil.

As important as oil is to the US economy, it is no less important ( and perhaps more so) to China, India and other emerging third world countries. Not to mention Japan, Western Europe and the developed countries. So we're not the only ones in the equation, not the only ones with a stake in the power vacuum we've created in the mid-east. We're just the only ones with leadership that continues to rattle sabres with a military that's already streched to the breaking point.

Jeff

Count me in for $10 a gallon gas!!!!

If that really did happen, we would have A) energy efficient cars and B) a society that remembers when NOT to use them.

Any sustained gas price spike would finally put the brakes on sprawl and the resulting value of the first tier suburb (aka: Lakewood) would skyrocket.

Unfortunately, this country is far too dependent on sheer laziness. And the only thing the government does well is keep the commuters relatively pacified.

We put a "sin" tax on cigarettes and liquor, why not one on gasoline? People use it in the same way - wantonly and irresponsibly.

What makes gasoline a better candidate for a “sin taxâ€Â

Bret, Tim

While I agree that we really need to stop subsidizing Hummers, we also have to realize that $10 gas would probably cause , at the least, a worldwide recession, perhaps depression, or, at the worst, a complete economic collapse.

Jeff

I think we could easily brush off Iran if the leadership was rational and not radical anti- U.S./ anti-Israel/anti-everyone but themselves.
They do have medium range missle launch capablity now, to hit any U.S base in the area, and any U.S interests plus Israel.

A rational leadership there wouldn't consider it. All over the web, the statements made by Iran's leadership highlights the leadership is far from rational.

Jeff,

okay, so $10 a gallon is a little radical, however, most of Europe is paying five and six bucks per, and the roof hasn't caved in yet.

Point is, I don't recall anything about cheap oil in that whole "life, liberty and pursuit of happiness" thing.