The Observation Deck

When facing a real crisis, such as a very real and deadly pandemic, it is hard to resist panic and caving in to "political" pressure.

Here is one professional study from 2009 study concerning the 1957 virus--a virus that has many similarities to Covid (there are many other studies regarding how to respond to pandemics).

http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/website ... _1957.html

"Measures were generally not taken to close schools, restrict travel, close borders, or recommend wearing masks. Quarantine was not considered to be an effective mitigation strategy and was ‘‘obviously useless because of the large number of travelers and the frequency of mild or inapparent cases.’’4(p36)

Closing schools and limiting public gatherings were not recommended as strategies to mitigate the pandemic’s impact, except for administrative reasons due to high levels of absenteeism.7 For example, ASTHO noted that ‘‘in some instances there may be administrative reasons for closing schools due to illness of teachers, bus drivers, large absentee rates, etc.’’7(p2)

Measures were generally not taken to close schools, restrict travel, close borders, or recommend wearing masks. Quarantine was not considered to be an effective mitigation strategy and was ‘‘obviously useless because of the large number of travelers and the frequency of mild or inapparent cases.’’4(p36)"

Cashiers, grocery store workers, healthcare workers, first responders and many others are putting themselves at risk.

Will keeping schools closed accomplish the safety concerns for our children and teachers?

Are the reasons for differentiating teachers from these other workers and professionals valid considering history and available science?

there are no numbers on exactly how many teachers died during the 57/58 pandemic. at least, on the first five results of a google search.
the average american travels three or four times as far to work than back then. then stops at whatever places before getting home.
presumably something similar is for schools kids. so that is an area at least 9 times greater of people running into each other five days a week.

New evidence suggests young children spread Covid19 more efficiently than adults.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhas ... 577fba19fd


Betsy Voinovich

I read the two studies relied on by Forbes in their article and they don't necessarily support the notion that keeping schools closed is safer--kids under school age don't go to school. Here is my initial analysis:

The CDC Covid Net data through July 25, 2020 would suggest that, with "reinforcement of prevention efforts" schools could be just as safe open as keeping theme closed. Here are my take aways from the "scientific" data collected in the first 5 months of the Covid crisis:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932e3.htm?s

Through July 25th, hospitalizations of children under 18 have averaged 8 out of population of 100,000 confirmed covid cases (or 0.00008) but of those 8 children 6 were under 2 years of age (not school aged). So the kids ages 2 to 18 were hospitalized at a rate of 2 per 100,000---that is 80 times less than adults (those over 18).

Per the internet, Lakewood has 1462 public school students and Cuyahoga County has 163,502. In theory, if I am interpreting the data correctly, if the entire public school system population in Cuyahoga County was diagnosed with Covid, there might be 3 or 4 students hospitalized in a 5 month period or double that through the entire school year (10 months). ICU admissions might be zero or 1 since children admitted to the ICU are generally younger than school age and/or with pre-existing conditions. This assumes that the next few spikes we have are no worse than those in the last 5 months when the data was collected.

On the other hand, we must consider teachers and their increased risk of being in class rooms with the student population.

Given the results of studies cited in the Forbes article concluding that children under 5 spread their Covid more efficiently and are difficult to isolate even at home, logic would tell us that these kids are spreading it to their other family members who are going to stores, doctors visits etc. and to their school aged siblings who are interacting with their friends.

So, I am confused as to how the cashier at Marc's who handles perhaps 1,000 items a day handled by a theoretical 100 customers checked out each day is any less at risk than a teacher in a classroom of 39 students (assuming they all attend) and school halls if reasonable "reinforcement of prevention efforts" are in place? How about a doctor or nurse who sees say 39 patients a day, up close and personal? Or a flight attendant on a plane?

Clearly teachers will be at greater risk than staying out of school, but available science suggests it is likely manageable.

Can anyone correct me on my interpretation of the CDC Covid-Net data, my assumptions or otherwise?

Food, household items (soap, toilet paper, cleaners, etc) and healthcare are essentials. The people, who work in these fields, are considered 'service workers'.

Teachers are educators. While in-classroom instruction is desirable, it is not essential. Children can still receive an education, whether through tutors or online classes.

While the risk of a teacher contracting contracting covid-19 may be manageable, there are no guarantees of not catching it.

I don't believe in sacrificing a teacher's health/life in the name of teaching children in the classroom, when there are other methods available. And, there are teachers, who are already dealing with their own compromised auto-immune systems. Adding the possibility of catching a highly contagious disease would cause undue stress.

I 've heard, that there are parents who want their own lives back, by getting the kids out of the house.

Meanwhile, covid-19 continues to spread amongst children.

https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/08 ... 597074314/

Mr. Essi -- Generally, I avoid comment on the Lakewood Board of Education or its policies.

In the context of your posts, I note the following:

1. For the past 6 months, I have studied all of the publicly available sources that I can find and I have not been able to identify quantitative measures of uncertainty or or risk associated with Covid-19 contagion or impacts that I am prepared to rely upon for the personal safety of my family at this time.

2. In fact, to the contrary, the quantitative measures of uncertainty and risk all seem to point to both high uncertainty and high risk for many classes of individuals.

2. Each person has to make their own judgment about the level of uncertainty and the level of risk that they are prepared to accept for themselves or their family members.

3. I have also reviewed information about prior influenza epidemics and I have found them to provide poor guidance with respect to local policy choices.

4. My viewpoints on uncertainty and risk are unlikely to change until I see actual reliable data on the outcome of antigen testing in Lakewood.

I wish local decision-makers the very best during a time of ever-changing facts. I encourage them to plan into what I perceive as worsening conditions.

I also encourage them to disclose to the residents the actual state of antigen testing availability in Lakewood or in nearby communities.

The 1957-1958 Influenza Pandemic

It is clear from the medical article cited by Mr. Essi, that early in this influenza season (57-58) that a vaccine existed for this flu and that 30 million doses of that vaccine were manufactured for use. Enough vaccine was produced to inoculate 17% of the U.S. population.

The vaccine had a 53% to 60% effectiveness rate.

Today, there is no vaccine for Covid-19 for use in the United States (though trials have recently begun).

Obviously, Covid-19 is not influenza.

Thus, I remain skeptical of using the 1957-1958 flu pandemic as a guide-on in the current crisis.

The disease was well understood at that time and a vaccine appears to have been promptly tested and manufactured for national use.

A vaccine with a maximum 60 percent effective rate was acceptable for 1957 pandemic.

How is the effectiveness of a vaccine measured when so many infected have mild symptoms or no symptoms?

Mr. Costa,

I wore a mask yesterday. I maintained my social distance. I washed my hands. I was alive in both 1957 and 2020. The article says what it says: They had a vaccine. They manufactured a lot of it. If they had to, they could have manufactured more.

I get an influenza vaccine every year, many others do to.

In fact, I am a very pragmatic individual. If there is an available method to reduce the risk of a future illness, I pursue that method under the advice of a physician.

When I need the services of an attorney, I retain them. I also trust my car dealer to properly service my car.

When a vaccine becomes available for Covid-19, I will likely choose to be vaccinated as soon as possible.

If you have some special information about the 1957-1958 influenza season, I would be happy to read it. I took the time to read the link that Mr. Essi posted. I believe that it is a credible source on this topic.

Not sure I have much to add here.

ryan costa wrote:A vaccine with a maximum 60 percent effective rate was acceptable for 1957 pandemic.

How is the effectiveness of a vaccine measured when so many infected have mild symptoms or no symptoms?

You are asking the wrong people your question. You should address your question to the 3,703 former Ohioan who've recently died from Covid-19 or any Covid-19 hospital patient.

Here is my reference source, please take the time to visit the ODH Dashboard:

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal ... id-19/home

My impression from reading your previous posts here is that you are among those who are not prepared to trust the professional advice of virologists or epidemiologists.

The next time you are injured in an automobile accident ask the EMS squad to deliver you to a doctor of economics. See how that works for you?

My concern is the "warp speed" at which these vaccines ate being developed, and the number of them that may come to market within a short time of each other.

I'm no anti-vaxxer but I wouldn't want to be the first in line.

any legitimacy of these "vaccines" has been tainted by the financial skulduggery of the Kodak loan

You have to wonder who WILL voluntarily get the vaccine.

You’ve got a lot of whackos who believe the government and Bill Gates are plotting to inject you with a microchip and who will refuse.

You’ve got thoughtful, rational people who know full well that a rushed vaccine might cause injury, or just might not work.

So who is left? Not enough to get us to herd immunity.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/12/us/g ... virus.html


1,193 Quarantined for Covid. Is This a Successful School Reopening?

A suburban Atlanta county opened its schools amid controversy and a growing case count, previewing a difficult national back-to-school season.

CANTON, Ga. — The first letter went out on Aug. 4, one day after students in the Cherokee County School District returned to their classrooms for the first time since the eruption of the coronavirus pandemic.

“Dear Parents,” wrote Dr. Ashley Kennerly, the principal of Sixes Elementary School. “I am writing this letter in order to communicate that a student in 2nd grade has tested positive for Covid-19.”
By the time the last bell rang on Friday afternoon, principals at 10 other schools had sent similar letters to families in Cherokee County, a bucolic and politically conservative stretch of suburbs north of Atlanta. This week, more letters went out.

Altogether, nearly 1,200 students and staff members in the district have already been ordered to quarantine. On Tuesday, one high school closed its doors until at least Aug. 31. A second high school followed on Wednesday.

While many of the nation’s largest school systems have opted in recent weeks to start the academic year online, other districts have forged ahead with reopening. In Georgia, Tennessee, Mississippi, Indiana and elsewhere, some schools, mainly in suburban and rural areas, have been open for almost two weeks.

Their experience reveals the perils of returning to classrooms in places where the coronavirus has hardly been tamed. Students and teachers have immediately tested positive, sending others into two-week quarantines and creating whiplash for schools that were eager to open, only to have to consider closing again right away.
All of this has only further divided communities where parents and teachers have passionately disagreed over the safety of reopening.
Depending on whom you ask, the string of positive tests and isolation orders in Cherokee County either proved the district’s folly for opening schools during the worst American public health crisis in decades, or demonstrated a courageous effort to return to normal.

“This is exactly what we expected to happen,” said Allison Webb, 44, who quit her job as a Spanish and French teacher in the district because of her concerns about reopening schools, and who put her daughter, a senior, in the district’s remote-learning program. “It’s not safe” to return to the classrooms now, Ms. Webb said.

But to Jenny Beth Martin, who wanted schools to reopen — even appealing directly to President Trump in a visit to the White House — the district’s return has been a rousing success.

“I think that the opening plan is working,” said Ms. Martin, a district parent and co-founder of the national Tea Party Patriots, a conservative political group. “They’re checking, they’re making sure when people have tested positive that they’re watching the exposure and spread.”

Controversy emerged on Day 1, as schools opened in Cherokee and nearby Paulding County on Aug. 3. At North Paulding High School, at least one student was suspended, then unsuspended, for sharing photos of crowded hallways on social media, prompting a national uproar. Her school closed for at least three days this week after nine positive cases emerged.

Cherokee County had its own firestorm. A photo taken outside Etowah High School on the first day back showed scores of students crowded shoulder to shoulder, smiling and unmasked. A similar photo from Sequoyah High School was also posted to social media. Beneath the photo, a commenter wrote, “Most of these kids are gonna be sick in the next few days … was it really worth it to appease the anti-mask parents? At what cost?”

The county’s reopening plan was unanimously approved by the school board on July 9. Families could choose online or in-person, five-days-a-week instruction, and masks would be encouraged, but not required, for the district’s 42,500 students.
Opposition began to coalesce almost immediately. Ms. Webb, the foreign language teacher, organized a group on Facebook called Educators for Common Sense and Safety. The group started an online petition asking for, among other things, a mask mandate for students and a delayed start to allow time to rework schedules, classrooms and the curriculum “to be safe and engaging for our students.” It attracted more than 1,100 signatures.
In mid-July, the group, which Ms. Webb said currently counts hundreds of members, picketed outside a board meeting. A former English teacher, Miranda Wicker, 38, became its spokesperson — a necessity, she said, because current teachers lacked union protection and feared retaliation if they spoke out.

“They’re terrified,” Ms. Wicker said. “They’re being asked, literally, to risk their lives.”

But proponents of reopening, including Ms. Martin, cheered the district on. Two days before the school board vote in July, she appeared in a round-table discussion with Mr. Trump at the White House. Parents needed to go to their jobs, she told him. Students needed to be with their teachers.
“America is not meant to shut down,” she said.
Late last month, Ms. Martin was an organizer of a Washington news conference featuring people who identified themselves as doctors and who made misleading statements about the coronavirus, including unsupported claims that the drug hydroxychloroquine was an effective treatment. Mr. Trump tweeted a video of the event, which was later removed from major social media platforms on the grounds that it was spreading misinformation.

In early July, when the school board approved reopening, case tallies in Cherokee County, with about 260,000 people, had only begun to rise after remaining flat and relatively low — an average of about 10 new confirmed cases a day — for most of June. Since then, though, the numbers have climbed steadily, mirroring the state as a whole, with the county averaging more than 90 new confirmed cases daily over the past week. Sixty-four people in the county have died of Covid-19, including eight in the past week.

As the first day of school approached, Ms. Webb, the foreign language teacher, asked if she could erect a plexiglass barrier in her classroom. The district’s risk management director, Melissa Whatley, told Ms. Webb in an email that she could not “make modifications to a classroom beyond the scope of the approved C.C.S.D. Reopening of Schools Plan.” Ms. Webb then resigned from teaching and took a job at a law firm.


What a mess.

Betsy Voinovich