The Observation Deck

Now we know more about the reopening plans for the next month in Lakewood and Ohio. All seem reasonable to me. Denser Lakewood should move more slowly than the rest of the state, and the plans so far for Ohio seem measured, especially when compared to southern states like Georgia.

Most scientists are saying it’s too early to even do limited reopening.

Look at the projections here, the number of cases by July will be much higher than we have now.

https://policylab.chop.edu/covid-lab-ma ... -community


It’s like dipping your toes in the ocean and a big wave crashes over you and pulls you out to sea.

What makes me angry is that if we just stayed the course NOW, and get the transmission rate, or RO, below 1.0, we could avoid the next surge.

Are we going to have close back up? That’s going to be worse.

When can only hope he waits until the state has testing. His 6 week plan to get up to 20,000 a day, averages out to just 2,000 more a day then they are currently doing.

Funny how people think Ohio is doing so well, when they only test people going into the hospital, and now prisoners.

It is kind of wild. Every day DeWine and Dr. Acton say, "We are far behind in testing, maybe in two weeks..." For a month and a half.

The reason Ohio is doing so well is the same reason Trump got America to slow down. Stop testing.

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Has anyone discussed taking a regional approach to reopening within the state? Urban/suburban concerns are much different from rural concerns.

Dan Alaimo wrote:Has anyone discussed taking a regional approach to reopening within the state? Urban/suburban concerns are much different from rural concerns.

As talked about in threads about start ups. If your business sector is "allowed" to restart, and you refuse to go to work. Unemployment ends.

So the Feds shifted burden to the states. The states shift the burden to business. Then shift it to the individuals. Bankruptcy and death follow.

Meanwhile, Germany opened up for 8 days, saw an immediate spike in cases, and is getting ready to close down again.

Had the country spent 3 weeks mostly at home, while making tests, this would be over.

Tell me again what a great job DeWine and others are doing?

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Jim O'Bryan wrote:

Dan Alaimo wrote:Has anyone discussed taking a regional approach to reopening within the state? Urban/suburban concerns are much different from rural concerns.

As talked about in threads about start ups. If your business sector is "allowed" to restart, and you refuse to go to work. Unemployment ends.

So the Feds shifted burden to the states. The states shift the burden to business. Then shift it to the individuals. Bankruptcy and death follow.

Meanwhile, Germany opened up for 8 days, saw an immediate spike in cases, and is getting ready to close down again.

Had the country spent 3 weeks mostly at home, while making tests, this would be over.

Tell me again what a great job DeWine and others are doing?

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Exactly what’s happening.

Making people choose no job, no money or possible illness and death.

And unfortunately, the majority of those people in this terrible situation are from the lower pay classes. Middle level people have been teleworking or are in paid leave. And the wealthy- well let’s just say they aren’t doing too bad.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.gq.com ... ndemic/amp



But it extends to small business, as well. If your sector has been declared open and you do not reopen because you don’t choose to put employees and customers at risk, you are not qualified for any federal funding like PPP or whatever that joke if a program is called.

Everyone is between a rock and a hard place.

The virus will spread quickly as we “open up” and deaths will rise prompting a call to shut down again. The fallout will be tough

We need to get this under control NOW. Stay home, stop the spread. Let’s get it now otherwise it will remain a huge problem.

Serious question here : so how long do we actually wait at home and how do we know it is actually time not to be at home?

Do we wait for a vaccine? For a certain item to happen on a curve? For it to hopefully go away? For more PPE to be manufactured? I don't the know answer but not certain that our society can just sit at home forever.

This really is a no win situation for any of our politicians (and, yes, I'm including Trump but he can do enough damage on his own). There is only so much time that many people can just stay at home before they actually have no money to do anything at all. This includes feeding their own family. If DeWine (as an example) continues keeping people at home there are families that won't make it. If DeWine (again, as an example) allows people to go back to work there are families that won't make it.

I really don't know the right answer. I just am not so certain that we (as society) can just stay at home for some undetermined amount of time.

I mostly agree with Jim and Bridget. The reopening train left the station too early, at least for Northeast Ohio. DeWine's actions were more measured than some governors, especially Kemp in Georgia.

But as far as my question, it was...
...a swing and a miss, and then...
...another swing and a miss.

While I've seen data from other states, I haven't seen it it for Ohio, but it makes sense that the problem is more severe in more densely populated areas than, say, Podunk County, Ohio, and merits a different response. I've observed a correlation between the initial spread of Covid and proximity to international airports. This, of course, has changed, but less so for farm country than for the inner city.

I'm questioning whether the reopening should be different for these two Ohios.

Dan Alaimo wrote:I mostly agree with Jim and Bridget. The reopening train left the station too early, at least for Northeast Ohio. DeWine's actions were more measured than some governors, especially Kemp in Georgia.

But as far as my question, it was...
...a swing and a miss, and then...
...another swing and a miss.

While I've seen data from other states, I haven't seen it it for Ohio, but it makes sense that the problem is more severe in more densely populated areas than, say, Podunk County, Ohio, and merits a different response. I've observed a correlation between the initial spread of Covid and proximity to international airports. This, of course, has changed, but less so for farm country than for the inner city.

I'm questioning whether the reopening should be different for these two Ohios.

Looked at the map 5 times, still only see one Ohio. I know what you are saying but the lines between counties are just that lines. Out in Burton I would watch the young men file into the bus station on a Friday night, going in fine Amish boys. Coming out, Urban Cowboys headed to the bus and downtown Cleveland. (Downtown Lakewood had not been invented yet.)

What they are finding in rural areas is it is there just taking a little longer.

What it comes down to is, do you want to end it, or play with it for years.

If you are for ending it. Everyone stays home 3 weeks. If you don't care and want to live like this forever, relax the guidle lines and accept the losses.

Dan, am I getting closer to an answer here?

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Jim O'Bryan wrote: If you are for ending it. Everyone stays home 3 weeks. If you don't care and want to live like this forever, relax the guidle lines and accept the losses

Why are these the only options? I don't get it. We have already been home for WAY more than 3 weeks. Is 3 more weeks going to solve it? If it is, I am all for it. But is there any science anywhere that confirms 3 more weeks is going to do it?

There is no easy answer. And anyone who says there is (including me) is wrong. But it is not as simple as saying "if you are for ending it, stay home for three weeks. And if not, then accept the losses". This virus, and life, isn't working that way.

We could be on the way to safely reopening, but the botched response by the Feds is making the “stay at home” last longer. You need to isolate to lower the initial transmission, then you need testing and isolation of positive cases. It worked for SARS and it worked in several Asian countries like Taiwan and Singapore.

We don’t have tests. I don’t see much happening until you address that. So basically we are trapped at home far longer than had the test production been immediately ramped up. The president had the power to direct the country’s manufacturers to get cracking in the tests and supplies, but he didn’t. Come on, we are the greatest country in the world and we can’t get test production going?

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Bridget Conant wrote:We could be on the way to safely reopening, but the botched response by the Feds is making the “stay at home” last longer. You need to isolate to lower the initial transmission, then you need testing and isolation of positive cases. It worked for SARS and it worked in several Asian countries like Taiwan and Singapore.

Let's be careful about praising countries too soon. And trust me, I am definitely NOT saying that the U.S. did it right. Not at all. Just that there is definitely not one "magic" way to solve this.

Singapore is having a resurgence:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/18/asia/sin ... index.html

Taiwan had a resurgence:
https://www.wired.com/story/the-asian-c ... -it-again/

Basically, there is no definite way to beat this thing. As mentioned above if staying at home for three more weeks was the magic cure, that would be great. But I don't think it is so we have to think differently. At least IMHO.

if it is a permanent part of the environment, of the population, it will always be resurgent.

I drove past Edgewater Park on Monday around 4:15 p.m. It was a relatively nice day, and the beach, the trails, and the new building were PACKED!! There must have been at least 2,000 people at the park. I couldn't see any evidence of social distancing. We are doomed as a species if this behavior continues. And I am personally pissed that the Metroparks aren't doing a better job of policing their parks.

Jim O'Bryan wrote:
Looked at the map 5 times, still only see one Ohio..

Dan, am I getting closer to an answer here?

Closer? Yes. Cigar? No.

When I look at this map, I see vastly different needs in this Ohio. And I see the guv's compromise as largely out of touch with all. The borders don't break down as neatly as New York's, but some places like here in Cuyahoga need continued strong limitations, while others need hardly any at all.