Central Bank Monkeyshines....
Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 8:18 pm
So the Brexit vote itself wasn’t predicted. But with the vote, two things were entirely predictable. One was the accompanying drop in (U.S.) equity prices. Uncertainty does that. The second predictable outcome, more importantly, was the rapid, full recovery in those prices, to the point where we’ve hit all-time highs (again) in equities the last 2-3 days.
I watched stock futures tank the night of the vote and posted that they were throwing the baby out with the bathwater. So why was the U.S. stock price recovery easily predictable? Two reasons. One, sovereignty issues in Europe don’t matter much over here. And two, and this is critical so repeat after me….
THE FED WILL NOT LET STOCK PRICES FALL!!!! NO WAY, NO HOW, NOT EVER….
So over Brexit weekend late last month I put in a market order for 200 IXP on the Monday open that got filled at about 61. It’s been uphill from there, predictably. Nice to get a new position “on sale.” By the way, as stock go (which is pretty much nowhere from here) I like IXP. It invests in telecommunication companies, most of which are gonna make good money when G5 hits. Or at least I hope. At that point (2019 or so) I become a seller for sure. BTW I don’t own much stock, relatively. Haven’t for over ten years.
Now the during the last couple days, the central banks have fallen all over themselves to talk up “stimulus” and “accommodation.” Bernanke trekked all the way to Japan and jawboned it with Abe and the market gained another 2% that day. Huzzah! Mission accomplished! Even the head of the Cleveland Fed, like Bernanke a lifetime apparatchik from Princeton with no accomplishments to her name whatsoever, is quoted as saying “We’re always assessing tools that we could use. We’ve done quantitative easing and I think that’s proven to be useful. So it’s my view that (helicopter money) would be sort of the next step if we ever found ourselves in a situation where we wanted to be more accommodative.”
Huh? Quantitative easing (QE) has been effective? Tell that to anyone who doesn’t own a lot of stocks. The economy sucks. Salaries are flat at best. And despite what we’re being told, price inflation is rampant. Unless you measure inflation entirely in flat-screen TVs and not so much in health care or housing. Or tell retirees earning 0% on their life savings how great QE and interest manipulation (ZIRP) have been for them.
But that’s where “helicopter money” comes in. “Helicoptor money” is newly-created money (credit, really) directed right at consumers. No bank, corporate or government middlemen to reap the spoils first as with quantitative easing or interest rate suppression. Remember about a decade ago when the government sent every family a check? I got $1,200 I think. My brother only got $600 and boy was he pissed! That’s helicopter money. Told him he shoulda had TWO kids like I did, dumbshit.
But at its core, helicopter money is no different than QE. It still “money” (ha!) from thin air created by the Treasury and financed by the Fed, and it still adds to the Fed balance sheet. And it is still expected that it be repaid from excess economic activity, presumably by our children and grandchildren. But that is laughable. The magnitude of the debt is far greater than can ever be repaid. We can’t pay a tenth of what we owe, at least not honesty with equivalent money.
I’m actually in awe of what the Fed accomplished. QE was like the proverbial neutron bomb (the bomb that kills people and leaves all the other stuff perfectly intact). In a crappy economy, QE only lift stock prices without causing demand-based inflation in labor costs and most goods. I wish I had predicted it in 2008 but I didn’t. And I don’t think even helicopter money will cause classic price inflation at first because the economy is so darn bad. It won’t even help stock prices much, though it will keep them from falling.
But all the central bank monkeyshines, and helicopter money in particular if they go with it, will someday cause severe inflation, possibly even hyperinflation. It may take many years but how can it not? You can’t possibly create trillions and trillions of dollars in counterfeit “money” without people someday catching on. And make no mistake. Money created by the Fed is just as counterfeit as money created in my basement. Sooner or later, people will be eager to exchange their money for things. Not so much because they want the things, but because they don’t want the money. To date, money has been exchanged for stocks to the point where stocks, even in a crappy economy, are at record highs. But helicopter money starts to change that equation. So far, and I don’t know whether it’s just ignorance, or maybe bias (“it can’t happen to me”), people still have confidence in our money. Of course people thought Beanie Babies were safe too. Until they weren’t.
And the “best” thing about helicopter money, and the eventual inflation it will eventually trigger, is that the unpayable national debt will not have to be honestly repaid. Instead it will be “repaid” in severely devalued dollars. Which is the same thing as being defaulted. And it does keep stock prices high, so pensions can be paid, even if the monthly check won't buy much.
(As an aside, why is the economy so chronically crappy, as I keep asserting? Because we spent the last 40 years creating credit and "pulling forward" demand. Borrowing and spending on things we had not honestly earned. With loans out our ears. We can't do that anymore, period. Again, look to Japan....)
I’ve said it before. I’m no fan of the millennials, but I kind of feel sorry for them. They’re being handed a messed up financial state of affairs. But their salvation is that they don’t have much in the way of paper assets. When debts get repudiated, they won’t be the ones holding the bag. Creditors will. And I won’t be a creditor by then either. But to be honest, I don’t really know what price will be paid and by who. I just know that inevitably there will be a price paid. Cuz it just ain’t normal….
I watched stock futures tank the night of the vote and posted that they were throwing the baby out with the bathwater. So why was the U.S. stock price recovery easily predictable? Two reasons. One, sovereignty issues in Europe don’t matter much over here. And two, and this is critical so repeat after me….
THE FED WILL NOT LET STOCK PRICES FALL!!!! NO WAY, NO HOW, NOT EVER….
So over Brexit weekend late last month I put in a market order for 200 IXP on the Monday open that got filled at about 61. It’s been uphill from there, predictably. Nice to get a new position “on sale.” By the way, as stock go (which is pretty much nowhere from here) I like IXP. It invests in telecommunication companies, most of which are gonna make good money when G5 hits. Or at least I hope. At that point (2019 or so) I become a seller for sure. BTW I don’t own much stock, relatively. Haven’t for over ten years.
Now the during the last couple days, the central banks have fallen all over themselves to talk up “stimulus” and “accommodation.” Bernanke trekked all the way to Japan and jawboned it with Abe and the market gained another 2% that day. Huzzah! Mission accomplished! Even the head of the Cleveland Fed, like Bernanke a lifetime apparatchik from Princeton with no accomplishments to her name whatsoever, is quoted as saying “We’re always assessing tools that we could use. We’ve done quantitative easing and I think that’s proven to be useful. So it’s my view that (helicopter money) would be sort of the next step if we ever found ourselves in a situation where we wanted to be more accommodative.”
Huh? Quantitative easing (QE) has been effective? Tell that to anyone who doesn’t own a lot of stocks. The economy sucks. Salaries are flat at best. And despite what we’re being told, price inflation is rampant. Unless you measure inflation entirely in flat-screen TVs and not so much in health care or housing. Or tell retirees earning 0% on their life savings how great QE and interest manipulation (ZIRP) have been for them.
But that’s where “helicopter money” comes in. “Helicoptor money” is newly-created money (credit, really) directed right at consumers. No bank, corporate or government middlemen to reap the spoils first as with quantitative easing or interest rate suppression. Remember about a decade ago when the government sent every family a check? I got $1,200 I think. My brother only got $600 and boy was he pissed! That’s helicopter money. Told him he shoulda had TWO kids like I did, dumbshit.
But at its core, helicopter money is no different than QE. It still “money” (ha!) from thin air created by the Treasury and financed by the Fed, and it still adds to the Fed balance sheet. And it is still expected that it be repaid from excess economic activity, presumably by our children and grandchildren. But that is laughable. The magnitude of the debt is far greater than can ever be repaid. We can’t pay a tenth of what we owe, at least not honesty with equivalent money.
I’m actually in awe of what the Fed accomplished. QE was like the proverbial neutron bomb (the bomb that kills people and leaves all the other stuff perfectly intact). In a crappy economy, QE only lift stock prices without causing demand-based inflation in labor costs and most goods. I wish I had predicted it in 2008 but I didn’t. And I don’t think even helicopter money will cause classic price inflation at first because the economy is so darn bad. It won’t even help stock prices much, though it will keep them from falling.
But all the central bank monkeyshines, and helicopter money in particular if they go with it, will someday cause severe inflation, possibly even hyperinflation. It may take many years but how can it not? You can’t possibly create trillions and trillions of dollars in counterfeit “money” without people someday catching on. And make no mistake. Money created by the Fed is just as counterfeit as money created in my basement. Sooner or later, people will be eager to exchange their money for things. Not so much because they want the things, but because they don’t want the money. To date, money has been exchanged for stocks to the point where stocks, even in a crappy economy, are at record highs. But helicopter money starts to change that equation. So far, and I don’t know whether it’s just ignorance, or maybe bias (“it can’t happen to me”), people still have confidence in our money. Of course people thought Beanie Babies were safe too. Until they weren’t.
And the “best” thing about helicopter money, and the eventual inflation it will eventually trigger, is that the unpayable national debt will not have to be honestly repaid. Instead it will be “repaid” in severely devalued dollars. Which is the same thing as being defaulted. And it does keep stock prices high, so pensions can be paid, even if the monthly check won't buy much.
(As an aside, why is the economy so chronically crappy, as I keep asserting? Because we spent the last 40 years creating credit and "pulling forward" demand. Borrowing and spending on things we had not honestly earned. With loans out our ears. We can't do that anymore, period. Again, look to Japan....)
I’ve said it before. I’m no fan of the millennials, but I kind of feel sorry for them. They’re being handed a messed up financial state of affairs. But their salvation is that they don’t have much in the way of paper assets. When debts get repudiated, they won’t be the ones holding the bag. Creditors will. And I won’t be a creditor by then either. But to be honest, I don’t really know what price will be paid and by who. I just know that inevitably there will be a price paid. Cuz it just ain’t normal….