New Home Price Statistics.
Posted: Wed Feb 27, 2008 2:43 pm
Maybe you saw the article in the PD yesterday morning, the 4th quarter 2007 home sale numbers are in from the MLS. Actually they were out last Thursday, but I waited until today because the Case-Shiller numbers came out yesterday and I thought I'd add those as well.
Below are the updated Lakewood home sale numbers. As before, the first dollar column below is the actual average for that quarter. The second column is “smoothed†by calculating the weighted (by # of homes sold) average sales price for the most recent 15 months ended that quarter. By contrast the numbers in the PD were not similarly smoothed and were very misleading. The actual number of homes sold in each quarter is shown in the third column. The Case-Shiller index for the Cleveland metro area is in the final column. The Case-Shiller index is updated monthly, I used the quarter-end number.
Q4 2007 $115,500 $142,440 113 112.07
Q3 2007 $141,000 $148,430 169 117.35
Q2 2007 $152,400 $152,108 141 118.33
Q1 2007 $153,200 $147,370 103 117.60
Q4 2006 $148,900 $145,480 120 119.59
Q3 2006 $149,400 $149,760 153 122.27
Q2 2006 $156,300 $148,590 154 122.93
Q1 2006 $119,300 $144,861 88 120.58
Q4 2005 $142,700 $149,374 134 122.71
Q3 2005 $161,500 $149,668 150 123.17
Q2 2005 $155,400 $146,203 162 122.43
Q1 2005 $139,900 $142,415 99 119.72
Q4 2004 $135,400 $143,681 124 119.58
Q3 2004 $153,800 $143,365 174 119.95
Q2 2004 $145,000 $139,200 147 118.63
Q1 2004 $138,400 $137,847 86 115.59
Q4 2003 $135,000 $137,711 121 116.14
Q3 2003 $146,800 $137,085 185 116.08
Q2 2003 $136,000 $135,357 170 114.03
Q1 2003 $127,100 $135,453 94 110.82
Q4 2002 $137,600 $136,573 141 109.98
Q3 2002 $137,400 110.20
Q2 2002 $132,100 109.79
Q1 2002 $139,900 106.94
Q4 2001 $136,900 106.10
Obviously the 4th quarter MLS number is a train wreck. I believe I predicted in a previous post that Lakewood home prices would fall back to 2004 levels by the end of 2008, obviously that has pretty much already happened unless there is a turnaround, which I don't see happening anytime soon. In fact at this point, more quarters of numbers anywhere close to the 4th quarter number will bring the moving average down to 2002-2003 levels within a couple quarters. The Q4 Case-Shiller number shows that Cleveland metro home prices are down to 2003 levels already.
Here is the url for the current MLS report (PDF file): https://www2.normls.com:442/market/pdf/ ... LS4Q07.pdf You can tweak this url by changing the quarter and the year to see earlier reports.
And here is the URL for the Case-Shiller spreadsheet: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pd ... 022603.xls
BTW, the Case-Shiller numbers are regarded in most circles as the most accurate home price statistics, because they are based on multiple sales of the same house, adjusting for things like improvements, inter-family sales, etc. Case-Shiller is researched and prepared by Standard & Poor's.
The bottom line is that Lakewood home values, like home prices almost everywhere, are in a rather steep decline, though not as precipitously as some parts of the country. Hopefully you bought your home to live in and enjoy, and not as an investment.
And by the way these steep home price declines are against a backdrop of higher inflation inflation than we have seen in many years. The January PPI numbers also came out yesterday. Year over year, the PPI jumped 7.4%, the biggest yearly advance in more than two decades. So your home is worth what, maybe 8% less than a year ago (at least), and what money it is worth is also worth quite a bit less than it was a year ago. So against inflation, our homes have lost about 15% of their real value in just one year....
Below are the updated Lakewood home sale numbers. As before, the first dollar column below is the actual average for that quarter. The second column is “smoothed†by calculating the weighted (by # of homes sold) average sales price for the most recent 15 months ended that quarter. By contrast the numbers in the PD were not similarly smoothed and were very misleading. The actual number of homes sold in each quarter is shown in the third column. The Case-Shiller index for the Cleveland metro area is in the final column. The Case-Shiller index is updated monthly, I used the quarter-end number.
Q4 2007 $115,500 $142,440 113 112.07
Q3 2007 $141,000 $148,430 169 117.35
Q2 2007 $152,400 $152,108 141 118.33
Q1 2007 $153,200 $147,370 103 117.60
Q4 2006 $148,900 $145,480 120 119.59
Q3 2006 $149,400 $149,760 153 122.27
Q2 2006 $156,300 $148,590 154 122.93
Q1 2006 $119,300 $144,861 88 120.58
Q4 2005 $142,700 $149,374 134 122.71
Q3 2005 $161,500 $149,668 150 123.17
Q2 2005 $155,400 $146,203 162 122.43
Q1 2005 $139,900 $142,415 99 119.72
Q4 2004 $135,400 $143,681 124 119.58
Q3 2004 $153,800 $143,365 174 119.95
Q2 2004 $145,000 $139,200 147 118.63
Q1 2004 $138,400 $137,847 86 115.59
Q4 2003 $135,000 $137,711 121 116.14
Q3 2003 $146,800 $137,085 185 116.08
Q2 2003 $136,000 $135,357 170 114.03
Q1 2003 $127,100 $135,453 94 110.82
Q4 2002 $137,600 $136,573 141 109.98
Q3 2002 $137,400 110.20
Q2 2002 $132,100 109.79
Q1 2002 $139,900 106.94
Q4 2001 $136,900 106.10
Obviously the 4th quarter MLS number is a train wreck. I believe I predicted in a previous post that Lakewood home prices would fall back to 2004 levels by the end of 2008, obviously that has pretty much already happened unless there is a turnaround, which I don't see happening anytime soon. In fact at this point, more quarters of numbers anywhere close to the 4th quarter number will bring the moving average down to 2002-2003 levels within a couple quarters. The Q4 Case-Shiller number shows that Cleveland metro home prices are down to 2003 levels already.
Here is the url for the current MLS report (PDF file): https://www2.normls.com:442/market/pdf/ ... LS4Q07.pdf You can tweak this url by changing the quarter and the year to see earlier reports.
And here is the URL for the Case-Shiller spreadsheet: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pd ... 022603.xls
BTW, the Case-Shiller numbers are regarded in most circles as the most accurate home price statistics, because they are based on multiple sales of the same house, adjusting for things like improvements, inter-family sales, etc. Case-Shiller is researched and prepared by Standard & Poor's.
The bottom line is that Lakewood home values, like home prices almost everywhere, are in a rather steep decline, though not as precipitously as some parts of the country. Hopefully you bought your home to live in and enjoy, and not as an investment.
And by the way these steep home price declines are against a backdrop of higher inflation inflation than we have seen in many years. The January PPI numbers also came out yesterday. Year over year, the PPI jumped 7.4%, the biggest yearly advance in more than two decades. So your home is worth what, maybe 8% less than a year ago (at least), and what money it is worth is also worth quite a bit less than it was a year ago. So against inflation, our homes have lost about 15% of their real value in just one year....