The Observation Deck

I thought it would be interesting to see what the 3 candidates say in the web sites about Crime Prevention and Safety. I'm giving a brief summary and referencing their websites.

Mayor George:
http://www.thomasjgeorge.com/index.php? ... tion=25:25

Discusses his work with Lakewood Radio and CERT. He also points out that he has changed the police from 8 hour shifts to 12 hour shifts.

Councilman Demro:
http://www.neopolitics.com/blog/index.p ... &blogId=25
He talks about the "Broken Window" theory and the need to nip minor crime in the bud quickly before it allows serious crime to take over. He puts forth a 6 point plan which includes:

Zero-tolerance policing, restoring control of neighborhoods to law-abiding residents

Reduce the burden of problem Section 8 tenants by reporting them to CMHA

Utilize real-time statistics to prevent crime waves

Implement neighborhood policing and expand the Block Club program

Reassess staffing levels to ensure appropriate force for increasing needs

Invest in proper facilities and long-range planning for safety capital needs

Councilman Fitzgerald:
http://www.fitzgeraldforlakewood.com/issues.htm
Fitzgerald "believe that we must develop a comprehensive law enforcement strategy which establishes a real community policing network which includes residents and local businesses. "
He lays out a 15 step agenda to fight crime
1. Shifting resources into the Police Department, to provide for additional safety personnel.

2. Promoting a comprehensive Neighborhood Policing Strategy, with officers assigned to individual neighborhoods and working with neighborhood block clubs to prevent crime.

3. Enforcing the Section 8 regulations to crack down on any criminal activity in subsidized housing.

4. Aggressive prosecution of our local laws, particularly against repeat offenders.

5. Establishing task forces with federal and local law enforcement and prosecutors.

6. Holding absentee landlords responsible for the criminal acts of their tenants.

7. Giving incentives to Lakewood Police officers to reside in our city.

8. Properly maintaining and monitoring our parks so they do not become havens for criminal activity.

9. A juvenile crime initiative which includes parental responsibility measures.

10. Aggressive monitoring and enforcement of sex offender restrictions.

11. Forming the non-profit Lakewood Safety Association, to give residents an organization which can support police officers and block watches, track crime trends, and provide public safety information at LakewoodSafety.com.

12. Performing annual “safety auditsâ€Â￾ of every neighborhood in Lakewood, utilizing the resources of every department in Lakewood.

13. Expanding the number of Lakewood Auxiliary police to free up our police to focus on more serious crimes.

14. Establishing a Code of Conduct for bars and taverns regarding their patrons, including the hiring off-duty police officers,

15. More aggressive criminal enforcement of our public nuisance laws, charging chronic offenders and their landlords for repeated police calls.

I'm taking information off the websites. I'd like to invite the candidates to feel free to expand on this. I'd also like to read your impressions.

Okay, I have questions of all 3 of the candidates

Mayor George, how does a 12 hour workday help? Does science show that people are less effective after 8 hours? Do these police then work 36 hours or do they split and have some 12 hour days and some 8 hour days?

Councilman Demro, are we lacking in proper facilities and what do you think that the police need?

Councilman Fitzgerald, Lakewood Auxillary police - are these part time police? What would they do? Are they full time? Are they paid on a different scale? Would they be part of the police union? Additionally holding absentee landlords responsible for the crimnal acts of their tenants? How hard is it for a landlord to evict a tenant? Would the city assist the landlord in evicting a tenant that was causing problems? Additionally would you assist landlords in finding good tenants?

Lynn:

Thank you for a good capture of the positions and platforms.

On the safety front, the personality of the Mayor may well be the most critical factor in holding feet to the fire.

So let me cut to the chase: 1) Measurement; 2) Management; 3) Manpower.

These are the three fundamental components, I would suggest, that Mayoral candidates must address if we are to grant any credibility to their claims and intentions to improve safety.

Here are the questions we might ask ourselves:

Measurement:

Which candidate will pull the trigger effectively sooner rather than later on the Citistat component for the police department?

Management:

Which candidate has considered the need for civil service reforms in order to obtain the necessary management strength in the organization of the police department? Does the candidate have the capacity and personality to compel such a change?

Manpower:

Which candidate is best positioned to deliver on the above two, sooner rather than later, in order that increases in manpower can be measured and managed responsibly?

Kenneth Warren

Has this discrepancy in the candidate's analysis of crime statistics been answered anywhere yet? As would be expected, the two challengers state that crime is up while the incumbent says it's down. Are they looking at different reports or basing it off a different period of time? Is there a different focus related to total incidents vs. specific increases (ie. the suggestion that crime rates have shifted in nature of the crime). There are standards which broke crime into categories; Homicide, Rape, Robbery, Felonious Assualt, etc. Shouldn't this be an analytic process based on actual numbers? How much of this information is public record and can it be compiled and clearly shown? Has it not been done because it would look bad? Can there be reports that would show arrests/convictions as a success and accurately portray the LPD as vigilant on crime?
What is the public opinion of how crime rates should be measured?
Is it reasonable to compare current year to the past 4 year average? Particularly during an election cycle since it would be difficult to make a case that the incumbent can be to blame for the current year but had little impact on the past 4 years while he was in office.
Should we be looking at trends from over the past 10 years? Would this help to alert us that there is an issue that should be dealt with to avoid the "boiling frogs" scenario.
Is it necessary to compare to numbers from neighboring or similar communities? Which ones do we expect to have comparable crime rates to? Should we be as "safe" as Garfield Hts, Cleveland Hts, Rocky River or Westlake?

Well looking on the Bureau of Justice Statistics website of the Department of Justice for City of Lakewood between 2000 and 2005 (the latest data available there) things have stayed largely the same. The rate of violent crime has gone down from 277.2 to 211 per 100,000 population and the rate of property crime has gone down from 2494 to 2474 per 100,000 population. There are a couple that have gone up slightly also. Motor vehicle went up from 210 to 251 per 100,000 population and burglaries from 372 to 438. But the robbery rate is about half and the aggravated assault rate is down also. This is just looking at 2000 and 2005 but you can search it out yourselves using any years between 1985 and 2005.

The message I get from looking at it is twofold: things haven't changed much and Lakewood's crime rate is LOW. I don't advocate any candidate in saying that. I think that candidates are respoding to people's perception of the crime in the city. And I think it's appropriate for them to show that they hear what people are saying. But unless things changed radically in 2006 I think that perception does not seem to be justified by the data.

I hope that people's fear of crime is not aggravated by the incresing diversity of Lakewood. I think diversity is a very good thing. I have come to feel much safer in diverse populations myself. But I have not lived in Lakewood all my life (9 years now) and for some people it starts to look different than they remember and that worries them.

My own thinking about Lakewood (I love Lakewood) and what is important for it h as more to do with economic development, building a sense of community among a diverse population, and making it known as a wonderful place to live. And I have concerns about whether all the candidates are supportive of diversity.

My hope is that we will hear more from the candidates than about crime.

David Bargetzi wrote:Well looking on the Bureau of Justice Statistics website of the Department of Justice for City of Lakewood between 2000 and 2005 (the latest data available there) things have stayed largely the same. The rate of violent crime has gone down from 277.2 to 211 per 100,000 population and the rate of property crime has gone down from 2494 to 2474 per 100,000 population. There are a couple that have gone up slightly also. Motor vehicle went up from 210 to 251 per 100,000 population and burglaries from 372 to 438. But the robbery rate is about half and the aggravated assault rate is down also. This is just looking at 2000 and 2005 but you can search it out yourselves using any years between 1985 and 2005.

The message I get from looking at it is twofold: things haven't changed much and Lakewood's crime rate is LOW. I don't advocate any candidate in saying that. I think that candidates are respoding to people's perception of the crime in the city. And I think it's appropriate for them to show that they hear what people are saying. But unless things changed radically in 2006 I think that perception does not seem to be justified by the data.

I hope that people's fear of crime is not aggravated by the incresing diversity of Lakewood. I think diversity is a very good thing. I have come to feel much safer in diverse populations myself. But I have not lived in Lakewood all my life (9 years now) and for some people it starts to look different than they remember and that worries them.

My own thinking about Lakewood (I love Lakewood) and what is important for it h as more to do with economic development, building a sense of community among a diverse population, and making it known as a wonderful place to live. And I have concerns about whether all the candidates are supportive of diversity.

My hope is that we will hear more from the candidates than about crime.

Bravo! I second that emotion. Good for you for putting it so eloquently.

Diane

But I have not lived in Lakewood all my life (9 years now) and for some people it starts to look different than they remember and that worries them.

David

That speaks volumes. Unlike you, I have lived here all my life, And a change in the status quo can be disconcerting to some. As I looked out of my office window, I watched the Harding kids on their way home from school this afternoon. I saw typical junior high kids, very much the same as I would've seen when my father and I opened here 22 years ago. There was, however, a notable difference. It was a much more racially, ethnically and religiously diverse group.

A trio of female students, one wearing a head covering, one black and one white, sat for a time on the curb at my front walk, passing a pop. My father would've probably shooed them away (as he did from time to time). But, there was no harm being done, so I went back to my work. Next time I looked, they were gone, having left the pop can behind. Pretty much as used to happen 22 years ago.

Jeff

Did you see Bowling for Columbine? American's are scared. We are conditioned to being scared. Terrorist threats Orange level - what have you. The TV news, TV shows, The State allowing us to carry concealed weapons - Every business now posting that you can't bring guns on site.

No wonder people are more worried about crime - real or imagined.

We had hoodlums when I was young. What my mom would have called snot nosed kids - and she would have happily told them to behave without being too concered about retribution. Now days - people are too afraid to tell the pain in the neck kid who is misbehaving to be good - they want the police to do it - they are afraid that the kid will pull a gun on them. So has our need for police changed. What about bars? Do we have more bars now than we did twenty years ago? Are they playing music louder - more outdoor patios?

Has crime change? Or is it our perception? And if it is our perception - do we need to change that perception and if so how?

I do think that perception is very important. I do think that what Ed and Ryan are suggesting are measured, calculated responses that would work well to make sure that people are feeling safer without taking away civil liberties.

I know it is cost effective - but the cameras in the parks kind of bother me - kind of like big brother watching. What do you think?

Shawn Juris wrote: What is the public opinion of how crime rates should be measured?

Shawn

It think the three crime stats need be be looked at for a true picture.

Stats would be: Arrests, Convictions, and possibly the most important calls, which is very raw data and hard to capture and even harder to process. Citistat would help with this I believe.

It is the raw data that will tell us most importantly where and how the police are going and being used. The lost stats I mentioned months ago are the woman on Wascana that calls every Saturday around ten because her boyfriend beat her up and never presses charges. Every Saturday 4 police respond, as it is a call with violence, they are off the street for at least 20 minutes.

Another interesting stat would be criminals caught. Like the other day, three thugs rob a girl and get caught. Their crime spree went three cities, and Lakewood nailed them. Those with police scanners often hear police chases that end in Lakewood. They get caught burglarizing a home in Bay, Westlake, Rive, get on I-90 and bail out in Lakewood. I think the caught rate has to be almost 100%.

The only reason i mention this is like the the robbery. Those three thugs will be in jail for at least 3 years as a gun was flashed but not used in the robbery. That is three years of telling other criminals, stay out of Lakewood, between the residents and police you will be busted.

Lynn

Perception is everything. Perception is the killer, it trumps facts in most people's eyes and hearts. Ask the Observer involved on the Madison purse snatching this week. Crime is up and a problem. Ask the woman that walked past the park 15 minutes earlier and was not robbed it is not a problem.

Ask their friends and the capture might be the same.

As it appears that violent crime is Lakewood is static, and even those offense largely come from outside the city into the city, we have begun to consider it more as a Quality Of Life issue.

Let's go back to Wascana. The neighbors sitting on their porch seeing the police every Saturday, feel the quality of life is threatened. At the safety meetings, many of the complaints were nothing more than that. Hanging gutters on neighbors homes, junk in yards, loud music, parties, etc. Many not illegal or crimes, but it drags a person down causing their perception of quality of life to be shaken. Throw in a police action on their street and they are ready to move.

This is one of the things that is distressing many of us. You get 13 or more politicians talking none stop door to door or worse yet in the media about crime, and most people will start to believe it is a serious issue. I was speaking with one candidate about this last week. He/She were assuring me crime is on everyones mind when he/she goes door to door. He/She said, I say hello and ask, "What is your feeling on crime in Lakewood?" A loaded question. I suggested looking at the questions to mayor on the front page. Safety at the time only showed up twice while, housing stock and property value was the number one question.

Back to the safety meetings. While some of the people heading the meeting would bring up crime, most of the residents went to littering, illegally parked cars, gutters hanging, loud neighbors, etc.

NEVER heard burglary, rape, shootings, assaults, stolen cars, muggings, drug dealing brought up. Not once that I remember in 5 meetings. The closest it came was the disturbance that night when the guys visiting a girl got into a fight in the driveway, the police came and the "near riot" broke out.

Again quality of life issues, that are very real, very serious, and will affect the property values for all.

FWIW

Did you see Bowling for Columbine? American's are scared. We are conditioned to being scared. Terrorist threats Orange level - what have you. The TV news, TV shows, The State allowing us to carry concealed weapons - Every business now posting that you can't bring guns on site.

Michael Moore is hardly the barer of truth. The right to carry a concealed weapon is a 2nd Amendment right for most (who want to carry a concealed weapon) not a fear factor. just sayin

Well, you might shoot the messenger (many want to) but Moore's point is pretty spot on. He isn't the only one making the point, though he was probably the highest profile entertainer to so.

An interesting lecture on this. It is about Australia but applicable to our own country:

Dr. Carmen Lawrence Lecture

We should challenge those who retail fear for their own profit and advantage, closely scrutinising their claims and assertions. Living with unnecessary fear has consequences - it stops us taking a stroll in our own neighbourhoods or letting our kids ride their bikes to school; it leads elderly people to lock themselves in their homes and draw their blinds against prying eyes.

Are our local politicians getting a profit from retailing fear for this campaign? Are they acting on perceptions or augmenting perceptions with their platforms?

While citistat will be very informative and useful to track these indicators of safety issues (calls, arrests and convictions), it seems that the numbers from 1999-2005 indicate that there is an increase in violent crime, specifically aggrevated assault (the majors- rape is similar and the murder average increased but this number is very sensitive since the range is 0-2). Violent crime increased by 18% as I see it comparing the average from 1999-2003 vs the 2004-2005 average. Property crime is similar as a total but has shifted from larceny to Burglary and auto theft. I accept that there are other factors to consider and that to assess the performance as it relates to the mayor's race it is important to see the 2006 and YTD 2007 numbers. To be clear we are looking at % changes and this should not, in my opinion, be viewed as a crime spree or that the city is going down the tubes. The trends should be scrutinized and not dismissed.
At this point though, the numbers available seem to support the challengers claims that crime has increased. Perception is fine and good but for us pragmatic types, I would like to see the numbers that back up campaign rhetoric and put into perspective when this discussion resorts to I'm positive, you're negative banter. If we as residents and the individuals responsible for electing leaders want to passively accept that statements don't jive with the numbers and trends, I suppose that our choice. For such an active, involved community though I would expect that there would be an effort to dig into the details and get to the bottom of the question if crime is up or down and what this increase or decrease is being compared against. Again, I ask for more information and admit that my assessment is not final.
I found it interesting that in 2002 both property and violent crimes dropped off dramatically compared to 2001 or the 3 year prior average. Since that time we seem to be steadily rising in property crime and have been somewhat spikey in violent crimes. Was there a change that happened in 2002 that caused such a drop (particularly in larceny)?

Phil -

That quote was excellent and says a lot about what messages like we've been getting can do to a community.

The perceptions being put forth can be extremely damaging to our town. If people think it is unsafe to live here, what does that do to home sales, community involvement, neighborhoods? The list goes on and on.

sharon kinsella wrote:The perceptions being put forth can be extremely damaging to our town. If people think it is unsafe to live here, what does that do to home sales, community involvement, neighborhoods? The list goes on and on.

Here is another problem. If perceptions of what, statistically, is a stable amount (and even reduction) of crime over the last half-decade causes "fear" in the electorate, then how will people know that things are a) getting worse if they REALLY get worse or b) get better when they aren't really that bad? Basically, are the candidates raising the level of fear in order to scare a victory ("Vote Like Your Neighborhood Depends On It!") only to have to justify the scare with stats that don't bear up? When a national candidate does it, who cares...we always assume the "bad stuff" is happening just out of sight and either trust what is said or trust that to someone else it is bad.

But when it becomes local, you realize a lot sooner that you were sold a bill of goods. There will still be random muggings (ala the Marathon Man story) in Lakewood and Westlake and Cleveland. But how is a mugging under the Demro/Fitzgerald/Thomas administration better or worse than what has come before it?

I am very confused by some of these responses. Is the suggestion really to just believe that it's all okay? I've said it time and again that crime statistics are a tricky animal and can be easily misinterpreted. But to throw them out though in favor of simple perception is fool hearty or naive. Until I see the 2006 and 2007 numbers then I see an issue that needs to be addressed. It is not okay that the city is experiencing increases in crimes like aggravated assault and burglaries and motor vehicle thefts and justifying it with, well overall we had the same number of crimes. I know that as a resident it's easier to just feel good about your city because crime hasn't happened to you but if you compare 1999-2003 to 2004-2005 there were 22 more victims of aggravated assault (44% increase), 48 more victims of burglary (22% increase) and 22 more victims of auto theft (22% increase). In fairness there were 5 fewer robberies (11% decrease), 58 fewer larceny-thefts (6% decrease) and 2 fewer arson fires (20.7% decrease). I suppose that it's a tough question to ask but given the choice would you rather have you bike stolen or your car? Prefer your pocket picked or your home burglarized?

I hope that this will be a discussion to clarify facts not opinions. Maybe I have misinterpreted the statement that the police chief made. Maybe he is referring to numbers that are more accurate reflections. I would like these issues addressed though and come to terms about these discrepancies. If we can really compare what we are looking at without excuses and explaning it away with the likes of; old crime happens everywhere or I feel safe here or those aren't Lakewood residents committing crime, that would be great. Just my preference, feel free to say whatever you like. And I apologize in advance if these numbers are misleading or somehow considered an inaccurate representation. They were pulled direct from the FBI website and seemed to be the best tool to discuss this topic that is currently available. Hopefully something better can come forward to really determine which direction we are going on this topic.