The Observation Deck

Natural gas prices are at record highs and expected to climb even higher this winter. I know my last winter's bills were the highest I ever paid in spite of efforts to insulate and keep the thermostat under 68 degrees.

The cost of heating a home is especially concerning to Lakewood homeowners due to the age and size of the homes.

What, if any, changes are you making in preparation for this winter? I assume most of us will "dial down," but will you be supplementing with other fuel sources like electric or wood burning? Wearing heavy clothing indoors?

Considering that a $400 bill last year will probably translate to $650 or more this winter, I worry about those families that work, but live on tight budgets. This winter could be very stressful for many people.

Grace

The potential costs of heating this winter, with a projected colder then average season coupled with ever rising gas prices has the potential to put a real chill on all of our budgets. I really worry about people using dangerous methods to stay warm (unvented heating devices) or the potential rise in house fires from space heaters and the like.

I have read in a number of places, that use of a wood burning fireplace actually cause more loss of heat then it adds. So, I'm not sure if that is a helpful option (unless you have a fan equipped insert or wood stove). The old leaky windows are always a problem, and we noticed a significant drop in fuel usage once we replaced the original steel casement windows on our home. Short of that expense, there's always the "shrink wrap" inner storm window option.

You can also "zone" the house, cutting heat flow to rooms not being regularly used and closing their doors, and doing the same for sleeping areas relying on a down comforter, electric blanket or spouse for added warmth. Weather stripping around the doors, can be checked and replaced as needed. I also "shut down" the front door, and keep the foyer inner door closed so insulate that heat drain. Ceiling fans actually can help if reversed, pushing warmer air back down. Unfortunately, its too late now to respond to that offer to lock in gas prices at nine bucks a yard for the next 3 years, although the exercise you get in kicking yourself for failing to do so might help in keeping you warm.

Jeff

Grace, I don’t think the average homeowner understands what is in store this winter. The cost of natural gas is soon going to make $3.00 gasoline a total non-issue. Heating bills will be astronomical. More than a few Lakewood residents will see $1,000 monthly heating bills.

Last year we put storms on every window of the house. This year, for starters, I have a lot more firewood than normal, though this really isn’t for the purpose of heating the house (but we do have a variable damper that should retain a lot of heat). We also have a late October appointment with USA Insulation to have insulation blown into the attic floor and upstairs crawlspace. I have already bought fingertip caulk for the porch doors we don’t need to use in the winter. And my wife is FINALLY gonna have to dial it down.

Best for us, early this year I canceled the last three months of my $5.56 mcf contract with Shell Energy and locked in three years with MxEnergy at $7.79 mcf. The same contract today is $13.85. I just had a hunch……..

So many related topics:

Choosing a supplier and signing a contract. Don't feel too bad, Jeff, many suppliers will bail when the wholesale price goes up. Stories from other states that already offered supplier choice programs found that suppliers often pulled out of the market when the contract prices left them with no profit. Although the contract locks the consumer into a set price for a designated time, the suppliers have many clauses that allow them to bail when wholesale prices go up.

You, too, Tim may find your supplier unable to fulfill the contract, and the PUCO will do nothing for you. Let's hope it doesn't happen, but many consumers have found themselves thrown back to their original supplier and paying current (higher) prices for gas.

In addition, do any of you find it disconcerting that your neighbor pays a different price for natural gas than you do? On any given street, you could have a wide range of prices for natural gas. That seems absurd. It all comes in the same pipe, in the same quality, at roughly the same time, usually from the same source. Why should there be vastly different prices paid among houses all on the same street? So if you were clever enough to do some research and lock in a good contract price, why should your elderly neighbor lady, without such savvy, pay significantly more for her gas than you? Or when your current contract expires and you find only higher prices, will it bother you that your neighbor may then be paying LESS than you?\

Edited to add: Here is the disclaimer on MxEnergy's web site:

MXenergy will not be responsible for supplying natural gas to me in the event of circumstances beyond its control such as events of Force Majeure as defined by DEO or any transmitting or transportation entity, acts of terrorism or sabotage, or acts of God. If there is a change in any law, rule or pricing structure which results in MXenergy’s being prevented, or prohibited from carrying out the terms of our agreement, MXenergy may cancel it subject to any required notices.

Pretty much covers their butt and its standard on all supplier contracts.

I am very worried about the cost of heating our house this year. We generally have a large bill because I am always here and I like having the house warm for the kids. I guess this is one of the times that it might be good if I was gone at a job during the day, but alas I am always here and the house has to stay heated. I will just be bundling up and keeping the kids bundled too. I usually don't stress too much about the media hyping up issues, but I know this is for real. I just hope the prices don't go as high as they are saying. I am also concerned about some of our elderly residents. There are lots of programs out there to assist in those that can't pay their bills. The issue usually is that people aren't aware of the various programs.

Jeff Endress wrote:...there's always the "shrink wrap" inner storm window option.
Jeff

We found that using bubble wrap on the windows worked better than the shrink wrap stuff. We used clear packing tape to put it up. Perhaps the "double insulation" of the bubbles made it work better. When spring came, we took it down & had extra amusement...

When gas was climbing, it was front page news, and presented in a way to induce fear and dread.

This week, the news is that the supplies of natural gas are plentiful, weather is forecast to be warmer, demand should drop, and prices are falling.

And where do they print this news in the PD? Buried inside the Business section.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aK3C87cTRJd4


Now the question is, when will we see this reflected in our gas bills? Ever notice how quickly rates rise with even a hint of impending problems? They never adjust downward with the same alacrity.

We have done a few things. We replaced an outdated inefficient boiler. We added programmable thermostats that can be programmed to drop at night and raise in the morning. We have changed almost all of our lights to fluorescent. Even spotlights now come in fluorescent and except for the slowness turning on, you can't really tell - the face looks just the same.

Hopefully prices won't go up as dramatically as forecasted.

Tim Liston wrote:We also have a late October appointment with USA Insulation to have insulation blown into the attic floor and upstairs crawlspace.

Were you pleased with the job they did? I am in the market for the same after having a new roof put on. Considerate? Clean? Professional?

Lynn Farris wrote:We have done a few things. We replaced an outdated inefficient boiler. We added programmable thermostats that can be programmed to drop at night and raise in the morning.

Ditto...plus the new roof. I just don't like the programmable heat variances. Why do my ears and nose have to be cold all darn night?

My gas budget was increased by 85%. When I called (as I do every year) to dispute it, as usual they dropped it back for me. This year from the 85% increase to a 24% increase.

I do worry about the older folks with lower fixed incomes.

USA Insulation, they were average I would say. Half the insulation could just be rolled down and that went fine. But the other half, they had to pull some (tongue/groove) floorboards up and blow it underneath, which they should have known but the fellas that came to do the job didn't. So of course they weren't real happy and didn't put all the boards down where they came up from. So I still have a bit of work to do up there myself. But to their credit they did call to follow up and have offered to help. Overall I am satisfied but barely. They do have the right equipment but finding qualified people to do the work is another matter. I'm sure they are incredibly busy. If you need anything blown in you'll need access to 220V power.

You didn't ask me about boilers but I'll weigh in anyway. We had ours replaced about three years ago. Dave Slife did a great job. But it's not an improvement that is gonna pay back quickly, the new boilers are just not THAT big of an improvement, efficiency-wise. It will take 10 or 20 years even with high natural gas prices for a new boiler to pay back its costs.

Also, a 24% boost in your budget amount won't suffice. Natural gas prices for almost everyone are up at least 50%. At some point your budget amount will have to be increased again to something much closer to the gas company figure.

Finally, MXEnergy says they already purchased my gas and have every intention of honoring my gas contract. They have so far and I have two more winters with them. I do cross my fingers now and then though.

For anyone who is interested the new Dominion East Ohio "Apples to Apples" chart of natural gas suppliers/prices just came out. It's not much of an improvement though. I suspect that the gas suppliers are not convinced the big dip in the wholesale prices we have recently seen will continue.

You can access it at http://www.puco.ohio.gov/Puco/ApplesToApples/NaturalGas.cfm?doc_id=601. You can also ask them to alert you by e-mail anytime there is a new chart published. That's how I just found out.