The Observation Deck

Of the 51k Lakewood residents, what would be a good estimate of the voter turnout for this election? 18,000, 10,000, 8,000? How many turned out for the West End vote? I remember that the West End vote went down with a very small margin (40 votes)? For the record, I voted against the West End development.

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2003 ... c-projects

It was close. Lots of gloom and doom threats ... change or die! here that never came true ...

Pat-- I'm estimating about 15,000 turnout. Now that's just a gross overall number.

For many decades the turnout had been a fairly consistent percentage for local elections. I know because we did the research back in 1973. We (me and a couple of friends who became the basis of my campaign) had to ask the basic question-- In order for a Democrat to win in Lakewood did that candidate have to switch existing voters or bring in a significant number of new voters to outweigh the natural (at that time) Democratic deficit? As part of that research we determined that the turnout was very consistent and that therefore the Democratic candidate (me) would have to change minds. Nevertheless, we did do extensive voter registration.

Since then, turnouts of been inconsistent. And, within an election, turnout varies. For instance most voters will vote for Mayor and then there is a sharp fall off for the other races. But even that can change with a hot issue on the ballot like you mentioned.

This time around we also have a potentially hot issue with State Issue 3.

So my conclusion is that this time in Lakewood at least the turnout and how it plays across all the different races and issues is going to be totally unpredictable.

One other indicator is my informal lawn sign predictor. Different combinations of lawn signs for candidates and/or issues could be a reliable predictor of a voter. However, this time as you drive down the streets the combinations are all over the place.

Conclusion----don't place any bets and voter early and vote often!!!

Stan Austin

Paul Schrimpf wrote:http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2003-11-10/news/0311100205_1_eminent-domain-lakewood-public-projects

It was close. Lots of gloom and doom threats ... change or die! here that never came true ...

The West End Development, Issue 47 came down to a difference of 47 votes.

In the hand recount of which I was a member, Pro-West End side found 1 vote in the morning, which had to be approved by the other side, and in the afternoon, the anti-westend group found one vote, approved by the other side.

So the difference between on Issue 47 after the recount was 47.

In this one I have heard polling numbers from all sides that are doing it. I don't put much stock in it.

.

Stan Austin wrote:Pat-- I'm estimating about 15,000 turnout. Now that's just a gross overall number.

For many decades the turnout had been a fairly consistent percentage for local elections. I know because we did the research back in 1973. We (me and a couple of friends who became the basis of my campaign) had to ask the basic question-- In order for a Democrat to win in Lakewood did that candidate have to switch existing voters or bring in a significant number of new voters to outweigh the natural (at that time) Democratic deficit? As part of that research we determined that the turnout was very consistent and that therefore the Democratic candidate (me) would have to change minds. Nevertheless, we did do extensive voter registration.

Since then, turnouts of been inconsistent. And, within an election, turnout varies. For instance most voters will vote for Mayor and then there is a sharp fall off for the other races. But even that can change with a hot issue on the ballot like you mentioned.

This time around we also have a potentially hot issue with State Issue 3.

So my conclusion is that this time in Lakewood at least the turnout and how it plays across all the different races and issues is going to be totally unpredictable.

One other indicator is my informal lawn sign predictor. Different combinations of lawn signs for candidates and/or issues could be a reliable predictor of a voter. However, this time as you drive down the streets the combinations are all over the place.

Conclusion----don't place any bets and voter early and vote often!!!

Stan Austin

I have feeling it's going to be high turnout. Lots of signs in the hood.

Patrick Wadden wrote:I have feeling it's going to be high turnout. Lots of signs in the hood.

Patrick,

Around here we like to call it the 'Wood, which doesn't have the same negative connotation as "the hood."

Thanks for becoming an Observer.

Welcome!

Matt

I often refer to it as the Wood. In this case I was specifically talking about the street that Stan and I live on and surrounding streets. Stan lives across the street from me. Plus, there is a guy down the street with the old Detroit Theater sign. He has everyone's sign in his front yard.

Damn--- now I'm a marked man