The Observation Deck

The chances of seeing the ill-fated Mars research satellite fall to earth are slim.
When it is orbiting over the U.S. it does quite often come over the Great Lakes.
The next seven days are predicted as a likely time for it to re-enter, and probably
with just a few hours notice. Kind of like that fickle monkey.

Anyone planning a hasty party should we be in the right, or wrong, area as it
plops on in ?

We all should hope that it falls in the middle of the Indian Ocean as they are now predicting. The propulsion system that was intended to take it into Mars orbit included tanks full of Hydrazine, which is a really nasty chemical. The Russians claim the tanks and contents will burn up during re-entry, but a couple years ago the US Navy used a modified missile to destroy a dead NRO satellite that was full of hydrazine to mitigate that risk. We have to hope the Russians are right about it completely burning up since they don't seem to be planning to shoot it down.

Thankfully, the statistical chance of it falling on any populated area, let alone Lakewood, is very, very small. Should it appear to be heading this way, there are a number of bars conveniently spread throughout the city that I'm sure would be happy to host a last minute party

Megan, I was wondering if anyone planned to attempt some photos outdoors, maybe
my question was poorly phrased. Hydrazine is quite a common propellant on most
modern spacecraft. A quick check of The MSDS sheets will indicate that most of us
have been living for years next to quantities of this chemical that far exceed what
Phobos Grunt carries. Shuttle Columbia had quite a bit of it aboard as it sadly came
to its end. There is probably more Hydrazine on Triskett Road than on Phobos Grunt.

Many scientists say that the destruction of the U.S. satellite, ( which contributed a
sizeable amount of debris in space ) was unwarranted and probably an exercise in
answer to the demonstration by the Chinese not long before of their ability to destroy
a satellite in space. Also, there were concerns that for once a secret satellite might
not go the ocean route and be recoverable and examined.

There is quite a bit of reputable information and informed discussion surrounding this
subject on the web. Glad that you were interested enough to reply.

Anyone interested in trying to photograph Phobos should it come our way ?

Megan, please accept my invitation to the party.

Russell, if it does fly over, I'd love to come to your party. I'm not much of a photographer, but I would bring my binoculars. Do you know of any good spots in Lakewood to see the sky? The city lights are close, of course, but parking lot lights and safety lights in parks make it especially difficult. My own back yard has too many trees and there's a really bright streetlight right in front of my house.

I agree the satellite destruction was probably mostly for show, which in itself is a sad sign of aggression between countries with little regard to the future of space exploration.

Last semester, I wrote a case study on the Phobus Grunt mission failure for my Designing Space Mission and Systems masters course, so I've been following it closely since it happened. My professor mentioned that people have been looking for a "green" replacement for hydrazine for some time now, and that a company in Sweden is close to having one.

The difference between this failed mission and others that carry hydrazine, is that Phobus Grunt probably had much more on board than others when they re-enter the atmosphere. If all had gone according to plan, the Phobus Grunt mission would have had to use it to fly all the way to Mars and perform an number of burns to maneuver to Phobus, land on Phobus, take off from Phobus, and return to Earth with a sample. Instead, the mission never left Earth's orbit, so those full tanks will be returning.

I agree that we live among some nasty chemicals every day, but I still don't want to be under the doomed satellite as even more is released. I won't lose any sleep over it, but it is something we should hope the mission designers planned for.

russell dunn wrote:Megan, I was wondering if anyone planned to attempt some photos outdoors, maybe
my question was poorly phrased.

Russ

I am more than willing to come, but I am rarely taking photos any longer.

For 2012, I am moving more into charcoal rubbings.

But if it does come close, and you are having a party I would love to stop by with some
paper and charcoal, and perhaps try a rubbing as it passes by.

.

Jim,

I watched you doing some real-time rubbings of the Thunderbirds at the airshow. You
really do work quickly. I was the guy yelling " smoke on ! " and " smoke off ! " so
that you didn't have to look up quite so much.

There are many websites for satellite tracking and most display visible passes only.
Since PG will probably illuminate itself as it comes down there might be chances to
see it any time of day if you are in the right spot. N2yo.com is good place to follow
orbits, and SpaceWeather.com has an easy Flyby tracker which requires only your
zipcode. One site predicts a flyover of Ohio on Monday. Spaceweather will tell exactly
where and when to look on Monday and Tuesday which fall within the window.

I won't quote the coordinates here as they do slightly change.

Megan was wondering where a good viewing location might be. As it stands now,
someone with a nice front porch on Riverside, near the canyon, will have the sweet spot.

I am racking my brain, must be someone I know around there...

Russ

Russia is predicting a re-entry somewhere off the coast of Chile on Sunday.
The numbers keep changing, they have been a little bit off before.

RosCosmos orbital maps show it passing overhead between Lakewood and Toledo
just a few short orbits before it comes in. You never know.

I'm sure the big news outfits will be all over the story in the last few hours.
The time keeps changing too much to state here.