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Just How Reliable Are The Schools Financial Forecasts?

Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2011 7:07 am
by Bill Call
I suppose this is another question I'm not supposed to ask.

The Sun Post reported today that the fall 2011 forecast projected a cash balance of $500,000 for June of 2014. The fall 2009 forecast projected a cash balance of $49.8 million for June of 2014.

What happened to the $49.3 million? Is this bad reporting or bad projecting? I hope it's bad reporting because the alternative leads to even more questions that I'm not supposed to ask.

Re: Just How Reliable Are The Schools Financial Forecasts?

Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2011 8:19 am
by Jim O'Bryan
Bill Call wrote:I suppose this is another question I'm not supposed to ask.

The Sun Post reported today that the fall 2011 forecast projected a cash balance of $500,000 for June of 2014. The fall 2009 forecast projected a cash balance of $49.8 million for June of 2014.

What happened to the $49.3 million? Is this bad reporting or bad projecting? I hope it's bad reporting because the alternative leads to even more questions that I'm not supposed to ask.



Bill

Well according to others...

http://lakewoodobserver.com/read/2011/10/19/school-board-receives-updated-5-year-financial-forecast

The updated and corrected 5-year forecast is far worse than what the schools were even
presenting. Hmmmmmmmmmm, really.

Add in the buildings that it is looking like we will not get paid for again, and the numbers
are so staggering between the schools and the city we should be wondering who is
running these ships into the rocks of poverty, and why?

FWIW


.

Re: Just How Reliable Are The Schools Financial Forecasts?

Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2011 8:42 am
by Bill Call
Woody is a fine choice for Lakewood School Board.

Re: Just How Reliable Are The Schools Financial Forecasts?

Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2011 9:28 am
by Charlie Page
Jim O'Bryan wrote:
Bill Call wrote:I suppose this is another question I'm not supposed to ask.

The Sun Post reported today that the fall 2011 forecast projected a cash balance of $500,000 for June of 2014. The fall 2009 forecast projected a cash balance of $49.8 million for June of 2014.

What happened to the $49.3 million? Is this bad reporting or bad projecting? I hope it's bad reporting because the alternative leads to even more questions that I'm not supposed to ask.



Bill

Well according to others...

http://lakewoodobserver.com/read/2011/10/19/school-board-receives-updated-5-year-financial-forecast

The updated and corrected 5-year forecast is far worse than what the schools were even
presenting. Hmmmmmmmmmm, really.

Add in the buildings that it is looking like we will not get paid for again, and the numbers
are so staggering between the schools and the city we should be wondering who is
running these ships into the rocks of poverty, and why?

FWIW


.

Woody’s piece on the 5 year forecast just underscores the importance of people with a strong financial background as members of the BoE and City Council. People to challenge assumptions and ask the right questions. People who’s eyes don’t gloss over upon initiating financial discussions.

This sounds like an opportunity for the School Board to establish an audit committee (similar to the City of Lakewood’s audit committee) to review the financials, challenge assumptions, review audit findings, etc.

Re: Just How Reliable Are The Schools Financial Forecasts?

Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2011 10:45 am
by Christine Gordillo
It is bad reporting. The 2009 financial forecast projected a $49.8 million cash deficit.

Christine Gordillo
Communications & PR Specialist
Lakewood City Schools

Re: Just How Reliable Are The Schools Financial Forecasts?

Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2011 11:17 am
by Scott Meeson
Bill Call wrote:Woody is a fine choice for Lakewood School Board.


Agreed!


http://calleriforschoolboard.info/index.cfm

Re: Just How Reliable Are The Schools Financial Forecasts?

Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2011 11:41 am
by stephen davis
Christine Gordillo wrote:It is bad reporting. The 2009 financial forecast projected a $49.8 million cash deficit.

Christine Gordillo
Communications & PR Specialist
Lakewood City Schools


Christine,

Thank you for the reminder to not believe everything you read/hear without checking other sources.

The budget projections are bad enough without histrionics from the uninformed, or those that misinform.

Glad you stepped in.

Steve

.

Re: Just How Reliable Are The Schools Financial Forecasts?

Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2011 11:52 am
by Bill Call
Christine Gordillo wrote:The 2009 financial forecast projected a $49.8 million cash deficit.

Christine Gordillo
Communications & PR Specialist
Lakewood City Schools



Well that's a relief.

Re: Just How Reliable Are The Schools Financial Forecasts?

Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2011 12:12 pm
by Scott Meeson
Lakewood's Five-Year Forecast Assumptions:

ftp://ftp.ode.state.oh.us/geodoc/5-yrForecast/2011%20OCT%20Assumptions%20-%20FY12/Lakewood-044198.pdf. As of 10/19/2011 5:38:00 P.M.

Re: Just How Reliable Are The Schools Financial Forecasts?

Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2011 8:31 pm
by Meg Ostrowski
Charlie Page wrote:People to challenge assumptions and ask the right questions.


My observation is that they don't take kindly to this kind of behavior...especially from outsiders.

Re: Just How Reliable Are The Schools Financial Forecasts?

Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2011 3:44 pm
by Betsy Voinovich
Bill Call wrote:
Christine Gordillo wrote:The 2009 financial forecast projected a $49.8 million cash deficit.

Christine Gordillo
Communications & PR Specialist
Lakewood City Schools





Wow, the Sun Post reported a projected cash BALANCE of 49.8 million, instead of a DEFICIT? What a difference a word makes.

That's even worse than calling property "abandoned, " all the time instead of "vacant."

Bill Call wrote: Well that's a relief.


Bill, I just got how funny your response is. (It's been a long week.)

The kids are in the kitchen right now, dumping out their backpacks, showing me their school papers and talking about all the great stuff going on in their classes. 49 million, huh? Gotta go get ready for the Grant Fall dance. Guess we'll be dancing while we can. Kind of gives the Limbo a new meaning.

Betsy Voinovich

Re: Just How Reliable Are The Schools Financial Forecasts?

Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2011 9:01 pm
by Kristine Pagsuyoin
This sounds like an opportunity for the School Board to establish an audit committee (similar to the City of Lakewood’s audit committee) to review the financials, challenge assumptions, review audit findings, etc.



I agree. At the recent League of Women Voters forum, I put forth 5 ideas that were based on conversations that I have had over the last six months with voters. One of the ideas is to establish an oversight/revenue finding committee. The Lakewood Schools, like many other districts, has already made significant cuts. We cannot continue to cut teachers as a solution to our financial challenges, nor can we continue to rely on levies and state money. We must find other long-term to permanent solutions that are different from the same old formula.

Other districts around the country are going directly to the community to build new relationships with businesses, non-profits, and to tap into innovative ideas.

Let me be clear, I am not talking about another committee that produces a predetermined outcome or solutions that will never go anywhere. I am talking about assembling our best and brightest who will become a constant fixture to provide oversight.

I will bring many talents and skills to the Lakewood Board of Education, if elected. Yet, I recognize that I do not have all of the answers to our future financial problems. Here is what I will do—I will ask questions, I will vet the contracts that come before me and make thoughtful decisions, I will work to hire the best treasurer for our district, I will do the research and work needed to tap into any resources that will most benefit our students and district and I will listen, and I will respond.

As many of you know, I have attended school board meetings for a long time. It is rare for school board members to ask questions of the treasurer during a forecast presentation. Local school boards were intended to consist of members of the community representing the values of their neighbors. The job of the school board is to be your link to the district—asking the questions on behalf of the public. We have 3 current board members who have served 15-28 years. Do you feel like they are representing your values? Do they listen to what is important to you and ask questions of our administrators on your behalf? Or, do you feel like things have gotten switched around?

Public education in this state is at risk. If we care about our students and our community we’ll have to work together and keep asking questions so that we reach answers that keep us strong and sustainable, not only financially of course, but in terms of the education

We are providing for our children.

Re: Just How Reliable Are The Schools Financial Forecasts?

Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2011 9:54 pm
by Scott Meeson
Kristine Pagsuyoin wrote:
This sounds like an opportunity for the School Board to establish an audit committee (similar to the City of Lakewood’s audit committee) to review the financials, challenge assumptions, review audit findings, etc.



I agree. At the recent League of Women Voters forum, I put forth 5 ideas that were based on conversations that I have had over the last six months with voters. One of the ideas is to establish an oversight/revenue finding committee. The Lakewood Schools, like many other districts, has already made significant cuts. We cannot continue to cut teachers as a solution to our financial challenges, nor can we continue to rely on levies and state money. We must find other long-term to permanent solutions that are different from the same old formula.

Other districts around the country are going directly to the community to build new relationships with businesses, non-profits, and to tap into innovative ideas.

Let me be clear, I am not talking about another committee that produces a predetermined outcome or solutions that will never go anywhere. I am talking about assembling our best and brightest who will become a constant fixture to provide oversight.

I will bring many talents and skills to the Lakewood Board of Education, if elected. Yet, I recognize that I do not have all of the answers to our future financial problems. Here is what I will do—I will ask questions, I will vet the contracts that come before me and make thoughtful decisions, I will work to hire the best treasurer for our district, I will do the research and work needed to tap into any resources that will most benefit our students and district and I will listen, and I will respond.

As many of you know, I have attended school board meetings for a long time. It is rare for school board members to ask questions of the treasurer during a forecast presentation. Local school boards were intended to consist of members of the community representing the values of their neighbors. The job of the school board is to be your link to the district—asking the questions on behalf of the public. We have 3 current board members who have served 15-28 years. Do you feel like they are representing your values? Do they listen to what is important to you and ask questions of our administrators on your behalf? Or, do you feel like things have gotten switched around?

Public education in this state is at risk. If we care about our students and our community we’ll have to work together and keep asking questions so that we reach answers that keep us strong and sustainable, not only financially of course, but in terms of the education

We are providing for our children.


Hello Kristine,

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't you of the mindset that our community should complete Phase 3 without any further delay...bypassing state funding that may never come? If such an idea moved forward,do you feel the additional tax burden would have an adverse effect on any potential operating levies?

My question is prompted by a comment you made at the recent League of Women Voters forum.

Thanks in advance for your reply.

Scott Meeson

Re: Just How Reliable Are The Schools Financial Forecasts?

Posted: Sat Oct 22, 2011 9:29 am
by Kristine Pagsuyoin
Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't you of the mindset that the community should complete Phase 3 without any further delay...bypassing state funding that may never come? If such an idea moved forward, do you feel the additional tax burden would have an adverse effect on any potential operating levies?



Hi Scott,

Thanks for giving me the chance to clarify my position. No. We shouldn’t, and can’t, complete Phase 3. My position is that we make finishing the high school a priority (another candidate has said repeatedly that we must "finish the '50-year Committee Plan'").

We are not able to move the entire Phase 3 in its current form forward—here’s why. All along, the funding that we were supposed to receive from the OSFC (Ohio School Facilities Commission) was only going to cover part of the cost of the Phase 3 plan. That is, finishing the second half of the high school and rebuilding/renovating 2 out of the 3 remaining elementary schools. When our school board made the decision in 2009 regarding Phase 3 we were “locked-in” with the OSFC for the amount of funds we were awarded for two years. Then, the waiting started for our number to come up to receive those funds. However, our number didn't come up.


In fact, Lakewood has received the new rankings and we are further down the list than we were before. Now, we will need to be re-evaluated by the OSFC. They will look at our enrollment and other criteria to figure out what they will fund. In other words, the Phase 3 facilities plan is on hold indefinitely. I am going to guess that any funding we would receive will be less than we originally anticipated. Too much has changed since the Phase 3 decision. The OSFC will re-evaluate our plan and so the new school board must re-visit Phase 3.



Typically, when we talk about funding problems we automatically jump to figuring out what should be cut. I think it is important to first ask the question, “Where should we invest?” I think investing in finishing the high school is a good investment for our community. Research is early on this issue, but there are studies that show that school facilities can have a positive impact on local economic development, and may help to increase student achievement. Do we really want an unfinished high school sitting in our community for the next 7-10 years? We can choose to wait to see if the state will give us money. If we do, the cost of the project will only get more expensive. What will be the long-term cost to our community and students with continuing to wait? Our current 2nd graders might not start as freshmen with a finished high school. Our high school should be the gem of our district. I think an unfinished high school is unappealing to families who are looking to move to our community, and may be a possible reason for students to choose to attend high school elsewhere.


As we move our district forward in these challenging times, we are are going to have to figure out, as a community, what we value and where we want to invest. If we begin to view funding problems as possible opportunities: investments, revenue generating ideas, creating community oversight, collaborating with businesses, etc. then I think levies will still pass. Do you agree that we cannot keep relying on levies and state money? Here’s our chance to make (and demand) changes. It won’t change overnight. We have a long road ahead. However, it isn’t acceptable to allow our high school to remain they way it is now.

Kristine

Re: Just How Reliable Are The Schools Financial Forecasts?

Posted: Sat Oct 22, 2011 4:21 pm
by Bill Call
Betsy Voinovich wrote:
Bill Call wrote: Well that's a relief.


Bill, I just got how funny your response is. (It's been a long week.)

[/quote]

I once had hopes of being a stand up comic but no one laughed at my jokes until they got home.

Kristine Pagsuyoin wrote:In fact, Lakewood has received the new rankings and we are further down the list than we were before. Now, we will need to be re-evaluated by the OSFC. They will look at our enrollment and other criteria to figure out what they will fund. In other words, the Phase 3 facilities plan is on hold indefinitely.


Somtimes memory fails but I seem to remember questions about State funding during the first bond campaign. Weren't we assured that the money was guaranteed?