The Observation Deck

..

Despite my high esteem, I must disagree

While I agree, the financial forecast is impossible. It is far harder than the forecasting the weather 5 years from now.

I think this is what makes much of the work of VAL so exciting. It plains for a Lakewood in best and worst of times. If Cleveland goes down the tube, very little effect on Lakewood, if it does better it helps us. Would seem like a win win.

The schools do forecasts. The library does forecasts. If things happen that change the premise, we adjust the forecast. True, five years may be difficult to predict accurately, but it isn't really five years, it's a series of five 1 year projections, each building on the other.

But Jim, how do you plan for the "best and worse of times" without a forecast that predicts the variables that constitute the "best and worse"?

You can do whatever dreaming you want, but until you have a firm understanding of the financial probabilities by way of forecasts, your dreams aren't plans.

But, I'll still respect you in the morning.

Jeff

Jim and Joan

To put it another way, what you are doing in discussing the visionary alignment is akin to going grocery shopping, and deciding what looks good at the meat counter and devising your menu accordingly.

What I'm advocating is FIRST, checking your wallet, taking a look at the bills due, when the next check is coming, and figuring out what you can afford, and if you still want filet, figuring out what extra job you need to buy it.

Jeff

Jeff Endress wrote:Jim and Joan

To put it another way, what you are doing in discussing the visionary alignment is akin to going grocery shopping, and deciding what looks good at the meat counter and devising your menu accordingly.

What I'm advocating is FIRST, checking your wallet, taking a look at the bills due, when the next check is coming, and figuring out what you can afford, and if you still want filet, figuring out what extra job you need to buy it.

Jeff

Not to torture the point, but I think of planning as almost a given. Saying "we need a long range plan" is sort of like saying "we need good people." I understood the original question to mean something more specific. Frankly, I think we have had quite a few studies and commissions and citizens groups. Yes, the city indeed does need to get its financial telescope out, but I don't see that as an end.

That said, I stick to my guns and say that with a city whose finances are on the bubble, whose median household income is not exactly elite, whose tax burden is already sending some to greener pastures, the idea of developing new, enhanced and expanding revenue streams seems fairly obvious.

You can't just keep raising taxes and at some point you can't cut any more.
The schools have been fortunate (and smart). The mayor wasn't either one, and the anti-tax faction ate his lunch. Again, the "tax me again, please" contigent is somewhat overrepresented here.

Now, a plan may tell you that you don't need a Toyota plant, just a couple of data processing centers. But crimineys, do we NEED a five-year forecast to try to get some jobs here?

and Joan....Not to further belabor the point, but a PLAN is not a FINANCIAL FORECAST. I am not simply advocating we "need a long range plan"....Obviously. Nor am I advocating "more taxes please".

What I am advocating, in response to the "what's our biggest problem" is to look not at the symptoms (high taxes, low income, whatever) as a problem itself, but to identify WHY those symptoms exist, and address that underlying issue. While you are free to disagree, I believe that virtually any problem/symptom which you can identify could have been ameliorated had this city been analyzing income and expense projections on a long range basis, giving it the ability to see potential problems on a distant horizon, and adjust course instead of waiting to be smacked in the face.

Financial forecasts don't involve study groups, commissions, or citizen's advisory panels......except, of course, as those groups use the forecast as a tool for developing a new and enhanced revenue streams. They are straight forward analysis of financial realities and predictable variables. Many businesses find them indispensable is developing their future PLANS. Some do them poorly, al a GM, and go bankrupt. Others do them well, al a Toyota and prosper. But at least GM could choose to ignore the writing on its forecast wall......Lakewood's wall is graffiti-free.

But I think you make my point

That said, I stick to my guns and say that with a city whose finances are on the bubble, whose median household income is not exactly elite, whose tax burden is already sending some to greener pastures, the idea of developing new, enhanced and expanding revenue streams seems fairly obvious.

Until and unless you have a financial forecast for the city, how do you quantify the bubble? Predict the impact of changing incomes? Forecast future tax burdens and evaluate whether actions will enhance and expand revenue streams? Until you an idea of potential issues, how do put any plan in place that is flexible enough to address them?

So, yes, we need jobs, factories, malls, lower taxes, higher incomes, Bob Evans, Arts Centers, flower baskets, day spas and really good steak houses. They will cure certain issues as they arise, and may even fit into some master plan. I just think it would be prudent if we used common forecasting tools to identify upcoming issues (which may well have avoided current problems) before we trip over them.

The question was/is, "What's Lakewood's biggest problem" My answer:
Our biggest problem is that we not been proactive. We have been reactive. A financial forecast is a proactive tool. It is a necessary component if we are to solve the foudational problem of being reactive to forces which we have failed to anticipate, rather than being proactive in addressing problems wihich we have identified. From this ALL other problems and solutions flow.

Jeff



S

Joan Roberts wrote:But crimineys, do we NEED a five-year forecast to try to get some jobs here?

I am just curious what jobs can be brought here in 5 years, at what cost.

The answer reminds me of Mosquito Coast. "Give them fish and they will need more. Teach them to fish or better yet farm fish, and you have cured hunger."

LO had brought a plan to the table to help home based businesses move into store fronts that would have needed to hire help. I was kicked under the table, as trying to do too much.

There is no manufacturing coming to Lakewood, so what is left. Minimum wages at best, at the end of a large abatement.

.

We could always use a 10th McDonalds


Teaching is always available in Lakewood it seems like, nursing/health care maybe? I can't think of anything else off the top of my head.

Jeff:

I'm all for planning and forecasts. There is absitively no disagreement on that. There are many words that can be used to describe Lakewood. "Proactive" is not among them. That must change.

My point is simply this: If, let's say, Google wanted to set up a Great Lakes operation employing, say, 500 people and wanted a suburban setting near a major city, does the mayor NEED A FINANCIAL FORECAST OR STRATEGIC PLAN TO PITCH FOR THE THING?

"Sorry, we can't respond to your RFP. Our five-year forecast isn't done yet." AAAARRRRGGGGH. Give me the Kool-Aid, but with extra cyanide, please.

I know you're not suggesting that. But you ain't the mayor.

Jim:

Once again, if Lakewood can be a mecca for SOHOs and cottage-industry storefronts, fine. But the sheer scale needed to make a dent in a community with nearly $150 million a year in public financing requirements (city and schools) and a steadily shrinking population suggests that something other than SOHOs (even ones in storefronts) may be necessary.

Quick side bar. What is in the works currently to address these problems or symptoms?
LCPI and the Main Street Program have their objectives
what is VAL but who is involved and what is it working to accomplish?
the city is currently working on what? (other than the building dept's overwhelming mound of tasks w/ all of the new construction).

Shawn Juris wrote:Quick side bar. What is in the works currently to address these problems or symptoms?
LCPI and the Main Street Program have their objectives
what is VAL but who is involved and what is it working to accomplish?
the city is currently working on what? (other than the building dept's overwhelming mound of tasks w/ all of the new construction).

Shawn

I for one would love to learn the plans and objectives of LCPI and Mainstreet. I have heard many ideas, and many would seem to be ideas from VAL meetings.

The Visionary Alignment for Lakewood is nothing more than a think tank of people from all over the city. Ideas are thrown out, discussed, and then professionals are sought to kick it to death. What stands up to all of that is adopted into the pyramid, that is often changed into parallelogram, or circles when the occasional person mentions fear of pyramids. At one point LO was going to place this in the area called "The Thought Puddle" LO's and VAL's answer to think tank. Ken Warren is the unofficial/official head of VAL as he tracks, most of the thought processes. The library has hosted many seminars on the topics that come from VAL. Community Currency, Cafe University, Water Rights, Food Security Network, Jesuit Satellite Colleges, Brand Building, Alternative Arts Programs, Alternative Civic Groups, etc. Each of these ideas can and should be put in place by citizens.

That would be the short story. As some prefer small focus groups we prefer to get as many serious people in the discussion as possible. That the Library is the intelligent safe zone for exploring all possibilities. It also comes from the thoughts that the citizens can often do more faster and better than asking the government or non-profit groups to help. Best example would be the LO Bike Advocacy Group, that was ready to put up bike racks two months ago, after a couple meetings. It landed in a non-profit group and is now at a crawl.

The most visible part of the VAL is The Lakewood Observer. Which is born out of two concepts. 1) Getting everyone to one large table that shows respect for people while ideas are thrashed and kicked around. 2) An easy way to disseminate data gathered in the various groups and discussion arenas.

The Lakewood Observer, is often thought of as Lakewood's newspaper and discussion board. Everyone outside of Lakewood that has taken the time to meet with us, sees the Observer Family as the ULTIMATE revitalization tool, economic development tool, and a great way for cities, schools, hospitals, etc to save thousands allowing them to serve the residents better. One clue to what is down the road might be the term Observer Media Family.


.

Ok, but what about specific to the task of addressing the problems or symptoms related to generating business income within the city, the economic development component. Is any group already focused on gathering the details and statistics relating to the businesses within Lakewood? The original question was what problems does the city face at each time period but without knowing where we stand now, not where we "feel" we stand but really where we are.

VAL sounds great for what it is and seems to have produced some great results but for a change I would like to see some empirical information. Maybe I'm not asking the right questions or looking in the wrong places. Seems that emotional opinions are readily available but a well researched statistic is like finding Sasquatch. Not that there's anything wrong with an impassioned opinion, if that's what you need.

As for the LCPI/Main Street program, I've lost touch with it but it seemed to me that those minutes would be readily available to catch up on what they're up to. Am I off base on that?

Out of curiosity, what was the last business that the city attemped to woo into our fair city? Was it the West End Project? How do other cities attract employers to their cities?

Shawn

One of the many things the Lakewood Observer is working is filling up store fronts. Currently the Observer offers more $$$$ in incentives than most store fronts cost. This is not a one time check, it continues on through their life in Lakewood. We instituted a program to help store fronts with their windows, at low or free cost. To date we have done 5.

We have a bunch more stuff rolling out in the next two months, one we are working on together. See you are deep in the VAL without even knowing it. Just taking part on this board, fuels VAL and the diverse members. Showing up at an Observer meeting, allows you to dive deep into the project. Stopping in at the office or Ken Warren's office will get you insight. another major belief that has been proven time and time again, is if you do not live here, you cannot understand it.

As far as attracting businesses, I believe it is the thought process of the VAL currently that Lakewood has a better chance becoming a Chataqua, than a corporate powerhouse. The fact remains, Lakewood has made it for over 6 decades without throwing out residents for bandaids that fall off in the rain. This brough a new concept to many of us today, that will be interesting to see what happens.

But let's be honest if someone wants to live near a mall, I can show them 30 cities to choose from. If someone wants to live but 15 minutes from all the malls, I can show them Lakewood.


.

There is only one issue facing Lakewood. It is the same issue facing other cities in Northeast Ohio. Decline.

Decline in population
Decline in standard of living
Decline in civilized behaviour
Decline in law and order
Decline in property values
Decline in tax revenues
Decline in City services


There are two choices:

Manage the decline
Reverse the decline

Immediate past and current administrations have chosen to manage the decline. I think that is a mistake. With the proper leadership the City can thrive.

Jeff,

You can do pro-forma financial forcasts that use different criteria to show best case and worst case scenerios. "What if games" are what pro-formas are designed to do and we should be doing. We should plan to have reserves in the worst case scenerios with work to make sure those don't happen - but some of those scenerios are outside of Lakewood's control.

I do agree with you that pro-active solutions are important with the flexibility to alter the solutions when better options become available.

Joan Roberts wrote:The fact remains, and you cant rationalize it away, that to maintain a quality school system and city services with no economic base, Lakewood places an ever greater burden on its individual residents. The fact that there has only been one tax "revolt" in the past 20 years speaks highly of the residents here. But there is no doubt the tax burden has taken its toll.

If you cannot raise taxes and will not consider cuts in pay and benefits for City employees where does that leave you?