Jeff Endress wrote:My point? Anyone blaming tax rates alone for an exodus is throwing out a red herring. It’s a bogeyman. But, don’t trust me. Take a look at housing. Figure out what would be an acceptable house with a lesser tax rate. Run the numbers, including mortgage payments, transportation, etc. If you want to get really artsy, factor in the net loss of return on your down payment vs. projected real estate appreciation. What you’ll see is that despite the scary tax rate, Lakewood housing is still one of the best bangs for the buck around.
Jeff
Any analysis of the effect of property tax rates on behavior has to take into affect the income of the average resident. Your average Woodie is not going to go from his nice house on Belle to a McMansion in Avon Lake.
The following table shows the average property tax bill as a percentage of income:
City AGI Property Average Property As % of
Tax rate Value Tax Income
Lakewood 43405 0.0248 126000 3124.8 7.20%
Avon 69864 0.0166 217000 3602.2 5.16%
North R. 47243 0.0165 142000 2343 4.96%
Parma 39714 0.0186 123000 2287.8 5.76%
Stronsville 62085 0.0178 191000 3399.8 5.48%
Rockyiver 72467 0.0205 189000 3874.5 5.35%
Westlake 88235 0.0183 211000 3861.3 4.38%
As you can see the average Lakewood resident pays substantially more in property taxes as a percentage of income than residents of other communities.
Those who choose to live in Lorain or Medina or Lake County can also save a substantial amount of money on sales taxes. The Cuyahoga County sales tax rate is about 17% higher than the sales tax rate in Lorain County.
As to your point about commute time you are forgetting one minor detail. As people leave high tax areas they take jobs with them. The economic center of gravity is moving away from high taxed Cuyahoga County. As that trend continues it will be the residents of cities like Lakewood who will face higher commuting costs.
As to your point about real estate values: Values in Lakewood are stronger than you would expect when compared to other communities in Cuyahoga County but weaker than you would expect compared to communities outside of Cuyahoga County.
The bottom line? The continuing decline in Lakewood's population is part of the general trend of people leaving high taxed Cuyahoga County. The fact that Lakewood has some of the highest taxes in the County leads me to conclude that Lakewood's population decline will accelerate at an accelerating rate. That continuing decline will ultimately have a detrimental affect on property values.
If current trends continue we will be faced with the question: What is the taxable value of a house that cannot be rented and cannot be sold?