The Observation Deck

Ivor Karabatkovic wrote:Cleveland Heights also has 5x the property value than us.

Ivor, sometimes I am not sure when you are kidding or when you are serious. Normally I just ignore it when it is questionable. Here are some estimates from an independent site.

Lakewood - http://www.city-data.com/city/Lakewood-Ohio.html $141,400

Cleveland Heights - http://www.city-data.com/city/Cleveland ... -Ohio.html $131,300

I am assuming that you were trying to say that with more expensive homes comes less crime, but not according to this site.

Statistical anomalies are exactly why you don't jump to conclusions about what happens in any given month. That's why you look at long range trends.

Again, it is simply not disputable that the ten-year trend for crime in Lakewood shows a dramatic increase, particularly in property crime and drug crime, but in other areas as well.

Well Ed, if it's not disputable, when do we all get to see the statistics that show a rise over the last 10 years? Let me know and if I see I'm wrong, I will apologize.

However, I would also like to do a comparison of those figures to the figures from the '70s (huge drug problems here). The 80's (cocaine reared it's ugly head) and the 90's (crack and methamphetamine invade all suburban and urban areas on a national level).

You and I have discussed the xenophobia factor and the national fear factor before.

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Rick,

thanks for the heads up.

Me being a huge baseball fan, I wouldn't mind giving up my personalized bat to teach these thieves a lesson.

And if they ask me for a name, I'll say it's "Joe Boo".

yippee kay-yey...!

oh and Rick, after posting what I said about the property value I realize I didn't mean dollars and cents.

From what I've seen of Cleveland Heights, there are nicer homes, nicer schools (the high school is nice) and the homes around there remind me of a Fairview Park..

but I've never been down the back alley's and dark streets so I'm just assuming.

You know what they say if you assume...

What are considered the "bad" areas of Lakewood?

Fear mongering?

I hear what you are saying Sharon and I understand that argument against terrorism and giving up our civil liberties - but I think I disagree regarding that issue here in Lakewood.

Obviously the two candidates challenging for Mayor believe there are problems and that they can do a better job. One of the problems you do hear about from citizens all over is crime. I was talking to an 80+ year old lady the other evening and we were discussing this race. She said she used to walk everywhere in Lakewood but she is more and more afraid so she is voting for the FBI guy. She hadn't read the crime statistics - she was telling me her gut feeling.

Is it better to pretend it doesn't exist and stick our heads in the sand until it is really bad or to discuss it now and nip it in the bud while we still have a chance to change it with relatively minor steps?

Even some of the current Mayor's biggests supporters are talking about a Police levy to increase the number of police on the street. If there isn't a problem why would we need them?

So, if we see scores slipping in schools - we sound the alarm and get it fixed before it gets bad.

If a property starts showing signs of neglect - we fix it before it falls apart.

If the budget is out of control we find ways to save or to increase revenues before we have a problem

If the roads have potholes we fix them before we have to do every street in Lakewood.

Fear mongering or seeing real problems - clearly defining them and fixing them before they define us?

Lynn -

Frankly - I would be afraid to walk alone in N. Olmsted, Westlake or Bay Village in the evening.

I can see having a more visible presence. I can see needing extra officers for prevention.

What I can't see is the numbers to backup their contention that crime is on the rise. I have the citistat report, from the LPD here in my hands. Look back to my previous post - 1% does not a crime wave make.

There is a huge difference in violent crime in this country because of the preponderance of guns and the usage by those who are younger and younger..

There is a huge difference in the ravings of someone on methanphetamine as opposed to someone on pot - but Lakewood is no less safe than any other place in this country.

There is also a perceptual problem in our city about people of color and people with lower economic access. Look back at the posts where there were slams galore about a young black girl selling lemonade. That sparked off a whole tirade from many that we were having problems here because of "Section 8, thugs, ghetto, hoodlum".

Remember when people of Middle Eastern origin first started moving to Lakewood? Remember everyone saying that they were causing problems?
Look around, who are some of our more respected citizens?

When I see numbers bandied about that do not exist and it is in relation to issues that are perceptual - I will question that. When I see statements that say crime is up by 33% when the LPD's own figures say +1% - who do we believe.

I already told Ed that if he could show me the statistics that prove a 33% rise in crime over the last 10 years - and see the statistics for the 70's, 80's and 90's to see if we are worse off and I see that I'm wrong, I will apologize.

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One also must consider how and by whom these statistics are generated and presented. The court statistics could either indicate a rise in crime, an overzealous prosecutor or a police force that solves and brings to trial more and more cases.

It could also indicate a cities attitude towards each crime. When we were kids, the police would dump out our beer and tell us to go home but if years later they decided to prosecute underage drinkers then statistically this crime would rise. Each scenario gives a different outcome.

"Figures lie and liars figure" rings true in people's manipulation of statistics in order to sway the reader to their own point of view. It's called propaganda.

Case in point:

33% increase in taxes. Bad.
33% increase in INCOME taxes or .5% increase. Not as bad.
1/2 a cent on a dollar. Sounds Better
If you factor in income taxes +real estate taxes +all the other fees and taxes you pay the tax increase would amount to 1% overall. Even better

The above example merely illustrates how statistics can be manipulated in order to prove any point the speaker wants to make.


We need solutions. If we need police on the streets now, then raise revenue to accomplish this. Or do another study and b*tch about the crime, it's cheaper. Action costs money. The longer you wait the higher the price tag..

Alright so I think I've been relatively clear that I accept that crime statistics can be tricky at best and manipulated at worst. I've asked in the past for any sort of concrete evidence that show that crime is not on the rise in Lakewood. To this point what I've seen is micro comparisons which essentially show that we're not as bad as last year but fail to look at the details or lumped sum totals that ignore what charges are increasing and which are decreasing. Can anyone backup this claim that crime is decreasing that will hold up to the least bit of scrutiny?

Rick Uldricks wrote:Lakewood was in the news again tonight. Add a rape, a shooting, and a possible murder to those statistics.

http://www.wkyc.com/news/news_article.a ... ryid=74978

http://www.wkyc.com/news/news_article.a ... ryid=74985

I'd be interested to to know how Mayor George or his handlers can explain these things in light of his "crime's not a problem" campaign strategy. These are pretty shocking incidents and we're only days away from the primary. Whether these incidents are indicative of rising crime or not, it will be in people's minds when they vote, it just adds to the perception there is a problem.

Bryan

I have no idea how Tom, Ed, or Ryan would explain these. Ryan was there when I arrived, and was at every stop last night. The Mayor was at the scene working out of the "command area." As was Brian Corrigan Law Director.

These were real crimes last night, and last month. No doubt about it. I am not trying to frost crap and make it taste good, but...

Once again all the victims knew each other. Doesn't make it any easier on the victims. Will not make it any easier in the courts on the criminals, but...

The is not the same crime wave hitting Bay, Westlake and River or the same thing going on in Cleveland. It happened in my parking lot. The same lot I walk ten times a day. the same lot I park in for the office. This will not worry me today, or down the road. Personal fight between two people that knew each other. Of course it will never be the same for me, or those that live looking at it. But it is also the same lot I left my phone, police scanner, and ipod on top of my car by mistake at 8am, and when I came out to my car at noon, still found them on top of my car.

Bad night for Lakewood no doubt, but...


Rick

Is there a time you could join me for some walking? I have walked your street a couple times at night and did not see or hear anything. I realize I could have been lucky, and just not been there on a bad night. If not maybe you could let me know some hot spots.

C. Dawson

I have taken to walking our neighborhood. On your street we generally have a group of kids about 2/3rds - 3/4s up the street from Detroit that always seem to be out. Various ages from 2-8 to maybe 14 or so. I have not heard them cause trouble, but can see how it would grate on nerves.

Again, if you want to walk fine, if not let me know where and I will walk slower past them.

Both crimes could have been easily preventable.

That is what is so sad.


.

I hope the boy that was shot will be okay - what a horrible, horrible thing to happen.

The rape doesn't surprise me at all. This is a scenario played out over and over again, in every town, for years. The difference here is that it was reported. I think the girl has some very brave and determined parents. The mother who may have bought the alchohol should be severely punished, along with the boys.