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Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 1:23 pm
by Ryan Salo
One thing that I run into quite often as a broker are people asking to overbuy.
Example.
Yesterday I got a call from someone asking if they could get a lower payment than $650 on a $150,000 loan. I asked them why they wanted such a low payment (some have high interest investments that pay more than the interest rate on the mortgage - which is originally why the pay option arm was sold) They told me they could not afford the "traditional" 30yr fixed rate and term payment. I told them to buy a less expensive house or to rent and she said she would cb if they changed their minds.
I always hear about how brokers push programs, which does happen at some companies, but a lot of customers push brokers. They know the banks wont get special financing programs pushed through but brokers may be able to so they pick up the phone and start pushing. The first 20yr old that is looking for his first commission check that can do it gets the deal. Then 5 yrs from now when the folks foreclose they point their fingers right back at the broker.
I refuse those loans, but many less experienced people do not but they are giving a product to a customer who asked specifically for it.
My concern is not just predatory lenders but all the marketing companies that sell leads to brokers. Ever seen the ads that say 250k house for $600? Or hear the ads from a big building downtown promising super low payments? This advertising is making it much easier for people to accept the fact that maybe they should "max their buying potential!" rather than buy what they can afford.
People need to read before they sign and they need to take advice from other professionals like CPA's and financial planners before deciding on anything other than a 10/15/30yr fixed mortgage.
Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 2:05 pm
by J Hrlec
I as well think that people tend to overbuy what they can afford. There was an article in Crain's about these $500-600K houses on a single street in Solon that are all foreclosed. I just bought a house but made darn sure I could afford it even if times become tough financially.
Market
Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 2:09 pm
by Bill Call
pennies from heaven
Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 6:52 pm
by ryan costa
Various officials and consultants and celebrity cable news talkers will make noise about whose fault it is an how. But the bottom line is that irresponsible mortgage loans are encouraged by big business. They're rolled up, converted to bonds, and traded every which way. The top walks away with billions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liar%27s_Poker
http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary21.html
I guess it could be explained as having been good for the economy. It replaced x-million manufacturing jobs with construction and service industry jobs for 2 or 3 decades.
Re: pennies from heaven
Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:00 pm
by Stephen Eisel
ryan costa wrote:Various officials and consultants and celebrity cable news talkers will make noise about whose fault it is an how. But the bottom line is that irresponsible mortgage loans are encouraged by big business. They're rolled up, converted to bonds, and traded every which way. The top walks away with billions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liar%27s_Poker
http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary21.html
I guess it could be explained as having been good for the economy. It replaced x-million manufacturing jobs with construction and service industry jobs for 2 or 3 decades.
This probably has nothing to do with the increased number of subprime loans in early 2000.
straight
Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:13 pm
by ryan costa
it is fairly straightforward. The federal reserve controls most interest rates whether directly or indirectly. They set the reserve ratio of banks.
The Reaganist-Bush regime deregulated the Savings and Loans, which then got butchered. The right lobbyists made it easier to convert mortgages into bonds.
There is basically a massive housing surplus in America. However, in areas with the surplus there is no "growth". there is no growth because there is no massive construction of new outer rings of housing developments, shopping centers, and massive commute office parks.
However, when this type of "growth", it most frequently involves the donut-ing out of the city. The hollowing out of the city and inner suburbs. Some of this slack is sometimes taken up by immigrants, but when you factor oil addiction into the equation, you can't ask for growth without seriously squeezing gas supplies. Usually a threat of a 2 percent decrease in supplies causes a 10 percent or greater jump in the cost of a gallon of gas. probably a 2 percent rise in demand would also result in a 10 percent rise in cost. and so on. While we could perhaps invade Iran to deal with this(somehow it seems worthwhile?), eventually we would run out of places to invade. I nominate Nigeria before Iran.
Re: straight
Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:21 pm
by Stephen Eisel
a little 4 1 1
Subprime mortgage activity grew an average 25% a year from 1994 to 2003, outpacing the rate of growth for prime mortgages. The industry accounted for about $330 billion, or 9%, of U.S. mortgages in 2003, up from $35 billion a decade earlier.
Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:27 pm
by Stephen Eisel
The Reaganist-Bush regime deregulated the Savings and Loans, which then got butchered. The right lobbyists made it easier to convert mortgages into bonds.
There is basically a massive housing surplus in America. However, in areas with the surplus there is no "growth". there is no growth because there is no massive construction of new outer rings of housing developments, shopping centers, and massive commute office parks.
http://www.answers.com/topic/savings-and-loan-crisis
Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:09 am
by ryan costa
exactly.
Deregulation and other causes
Although the deregulation of S&Ls gave them many of the capabilities of banks, it did not bring them under the same regulations as banks. First, thrifts could choose to be under either a state or a federal charter. Immediately after deregulation of the federally chartered thrifts, the state-chartered thrifts rushed to become federally chartered, because of the advantages associated with a federal charter. In response, states (notably, California and Texas) changed their regulations so that they would be similar to the federal regulations. States changed their regulations because state regulators were paid by the thrifts they regulated, and they didn't want to lose that money. This is similar to the concept of a race to the bottom[citation needed].
In an effort to take advantage of the real estate boom (outstanding US mortgage loans: 1950 $55bn; 1976 $700bn; 1980 $1.2tn) and high interest rates of the early 1980s, many S&Ls lent far more money than was prudent, and to risky ventures which many S&Ls were not qualified to assess. Whereas insolvent banks in the United States were typically detected and shut down quickly by bank regulators, the Congress and the Reagan Administration sought to change regulatory rules so S&L's would not have to acknowledge insolvency and the FHLB would not have to close them down.
One of the most important contributors to the problem was deposit brokerage.[citation needed] Deposit brokers, somewhat like stockbrokers, are paid a commission by the customer to find the best certificate of deposit (CD) rates and place their customers' money in those CDs. These CDs, however, are usually short-term $100,000.00 CDs. Previously banks and thrifts could only have five percent of their deposits be brokered deposits; the race to the bottom caused this limit to be lifted. A small one-branch thrift could then attract a large number of deposits simply by offering the highest rate. In order to make money off this expensive money, it had to lend at even higher rates, meaning that it had to make more risky investments. This system was made even more damaging when certain deposit brokers instituted a scam known as "linked financing." In "linked financing" a deposit broker would approach a thrift and say that they would steer a large amount of deposits to that thrift if the thrift would loan certain people money (the people however were paid a fee to apply for the loans and told to give the loan proceeds to the deposit broker). This caused the thrifts to be tricked into taking on bad loans.[neutrality disputed] Michael Milken of Drexel, Burnham and Lambert packaged brokered funds for several savings and loans on the condition that the institutions would invest in the junk bonds of his clients.
Another factor was the efforts of the federal government to wring inflation out of the economy, marked by Paul Volcker's speech of October 6, 1979, with a series of rises in short-term interest. This led to increases in the short-term cost of funding to be higher than the return on portfolios of mortgage loans, a large proportion of which may have been fixed rate mortgages (a problem that is known as an asset-liability mismatch). Zvi Bodie, professor of finance and economics at Boston University School of Management, writing in the St. Louis Federal Reserve Review wrote that "asset-liability mismatch was a principal cause of the Savings and Loan Crisis."[1]
Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:28 pm
by Stephen Eisel
Human greed was the problem not the political party of the president..