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Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2006 10:28 pm
by Joan Roberts
Mr. Calhoun.

I think that data would be fascinating to see, too, since I'd bet it would show exactly the opposite of your premise.
Besides the oft-mentioned bookstore and MY garden center, what's missing from Lakewood are budget to popularly-priced clothing, furniture, school supplies, appliances small and large, hardware, just to name a few.
Even the really good n' cheap thriift stores are outside Lakewood. It's not the less-affluent families shopping for sofas at Harrison's. As someone who's doing OK now but hasn't yet forgotten tougher times, I can say Shopping here is fine, as long as you really don't NEED anything.
Of course, that's not necessarily a big complaint. I knew what I was getting into when I moved here. Nobody moves to Lakewood for the shopping.

Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:28 pm
by Jim O'Bryan
Made a trip to a Dollar Tree store. I have to admit it was much cleaner and nicer than what Medic had become down there.

But it does beg a question - Who is planning what? There was a person in the know building homes, next to where someone was trying to put a hotel. I have to think the only thing people look for less in Lakewood than shopping is a hotel?!

While Joan is correct that we cannot limit or hold back, does anyone have a plan?

What is the theory on economic development, what is the definition of economic development?

The city could quickly become the "mystic center" of Cleveland with fortune tellers and mystics, is this economic development?

But the more I look at the background of Dollar Tree, the more I think in this economy it has a better future than $8.00 cheesecake, $5.00 coffee, and $300.00 purses.

Party supplies, cards and batteries.


.

Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 8:30 am
by Stephen Calhoun
Jim.

What is the theory on economic development, what is the definition of economic development?


I liked the description in the latest LO, 'urban studies monkey'. Dr. Puck is a pleasant misnomer too. Well, monkey at the least...

I can only frame your question unconventionally while being mindful that "urban development" is generic and so there isn't any single theory that supports its definition or makes it particularly an instrumental (i.e. for the sake of,) term.

At a commonsense level, to develop anything in an urban space is to suppose that there are specific suppositions which underlie the actual favorable benefits to the developer.

There's a continuum one can use to frame this broadly.

If an entrepreneur opens a mom and pop store, at the lowest level, this kind of developer may be supposing the new store will return to them profits that will support their immediate livelihood. We might suppose that the entrepreneur lives in the community and, if so, this investment is ramified to include further investment in supporting their livelihood in the community.

If an entrepreneur opens a store and this store is part of a portfolio of profit centers, (so-to-speak,) then we can also learn whether the portfolio includes other sites in a specific community, or includes sites spread over a number of communities. If this same entrepreneur lives in the community, in either the case of a wholly local portfolio or otherwise, their investment is probably ramified differently because they live in the community.

(A good example, often, of portfolios being wholly local, are found in entrepreneurs who own real estate in a community. It is also often the case that a real estate portfolio is owned by someone who doesn't live in the community, and, the portfolio is dispersed over many communities.)

Again, if we extend the complexity of local investments along a continuum, we'll arrive at 'entrepreneurs' who invest in local profit centers but hold regional or national scale portfolios. As far as I know, and I could well be incorrect, prominent developers at this end of the continuum do not live in Lakewood. (Jacobs? What private developer, who lives here, is the most locally invested?)

Then there are more complicated plays. In such plays various parties work together to develop buildings or tracts or blocks or neighborhoods (!). When these plays are said to be 'vertical' then property owner, rentier, entrepreneur, banker, broker, contractor may all work together and bundle their self-interests together, as it were; attempt to characterize complicated and diverse returns on mutually aggregated investments.

In mixed use plays developers, financiers, entrepreneurs, renters, householders, consumers (etc.) may all figure in as potential revenue centers in a complicated development proposal/project.

This is, of course, just one way to look at development. Folds in extant or projected infrastructure, the complexities of financing, the legal and regulatory environment, and, the civic/community interests into this mix, and every development concept at each point on the presumed continuum is, to some extent, complex.

The good thing about looking at it economically is that it is very concrete.

(Whereas my personal preference is to make it hideously complicated by adding to this concrete perspective the much more intangible and subjective factors having to do with social psychology, cultural effects, affectual ecology, sustainability, and, in general, figure in psychic overhead. This reduces to: most residents feeling in the aftermath of a development, happier, less anxious, more intelligent, more connected, more prosperous, more confidant, etc.)

***

One way to look at the theoretical underpinning is to comprehend that certain factors have to be in sympathy to provide the developer or entrepreneur with return on their investment. "Synergy" is an evocative concept too. For example, there's reason to suspect that Lakewood wouldn't allow a sustainable return on a half-million dollar bookstore investment, and Lakewood doesn't need another saloon, yet, the right new saloon might be very profitable.

A good rule of thumb with respect to any inquiry into a given development proposal is to, "follow the gold".

Given a project proposal, where do cash flows and profits end up? Even in the smallest scale entreprenurial project, the investment and revenue monies go to different locations. For example, tax monies go to the city, state, and feds. Loan payments go to local or other banks, then flow elsewhere. Revenues go first to the entrepreneurt but then quickly get dispersed to vendors, employees, etc..

Some of this money stays in the community, some does not.

Any developer should have a somewhat workable model of what is assumed to be the ramification of presumptive cash flows. If not, ask 'em.

It's very much worth noting that every adult has to pay bills and so at the level of the renter or householder there is something like a 'personal' entrepreneurial model. One could plot in and out flow there. It's deceptively complex; our individual earnings represent returns on our individual investments in time, career, job, eductation, etc.

On this very tangible level, a community constitutes, economically expressed, a web of entangled entrepreneurial models. In this respect, synergy means sympathy between the developer's wish for a return AND the consumer's (etc.) wish for a return. Where the presumed match doesn't happen, businesses go out of business as can also, in effect, individuals.

It's important to comprehend that an economic development of anything is a kind of 'bet' on future conditions. There's a risk management feature implicated. Also, since Lakewood or any other community isn't an isolated location, many development projects assume that many of these factors connect up to other communities.

Lakewood sends more workers to work outside of Lakewood than work in Lakewood. This is a good example of how Lakewood residents are intimately entangled in development elsewhere.

***

The Dollar tree is a good case of a development coming onto the radar screen pretty much after the doors are open. If we use the continuum to typify various scales of development, we could suppose that developments which are complicated, and occupy some spot on the continuum of development, will usually land on the radar screen at some point in their development cycle 'before the doors open'.

In our increasingly transparent and open source paradigm, oriented around civic capacity and intelligence, what may be needed are 'development trackers' who can navigate the trail of future developers.

I mention this because there is a kind of coldly calculating development ethic which takes a kind of mechanical 'birds-eye' view of return-on-investment opportunities 'down below' and they can be expert at moving projects forward off the radar screen.

The question begged gets at an important idea: how much should a community collectively work on behalf of its own interests against the individualistic ethos that, in some cases, is not very concerned with anything like 'community self-interest'.

I raise this because there exist different sensings of what is in the greater community interest, and, because this happens to be always true, the question of who gets to decide what is the optimal greatest self-interest, when granted as a factor in urban development, is, in many ways, the hardest question of all. It's certainly the question for which theoretical considerations become very knotty.

Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 9:23 am
by Joan Roberts
Mr O.

It seems to me that before we can "plan" we need to determine what our goals are, and from what I see and hear, we're not even close to agreeing on that.
What are the goals? Increase jobs? Replace or rejuvenate housing? Destination retail to bring dollars in? Convenience retail to keep them from going out? Build the tax base? Prettify? Utilize vacant space or brownfields? Shore up shaky neighborhoods? Improve city services?
Then we have to decide what our commtment is going to be, and that's when things really get hairy. Taxes? TIFs? Eminent domain? Studies? Consultants?
I don't think Lakewood is anywhere near a consensus on any of these issues, and I believe it's because nothing really bad has happened here. We're still largely safe, secure, and solvent. A crime spree, major reduction in city services, or default could change that in a hurry, but right now, Lakewood sees no particular need for big ideas or sweeping change. As a result, it's just not worth any elected official sticking her or his neck out to propose it.
Check back in 10 years. Or 5.

Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 10:07 am
by Stephen Calhoun
Joan.

You supply an excellent snapshot of many of the possible motives, goals, and categories which can promote development.

Lakewood sees no particular need for big ideas or sweeping change.


Here, on the other hand, you make a sweeping statement that evokes in me wonderment about what actual data you have to support the assertion.

***

One of the interesting things about change is, (as much as a critical mass of citizen 'will' speaks for itself,) that the need for a big idea or sweeping change can be satisfied by the motive and goals of one person or in a small group of person--working hard and with vision.

In fact, the overall lassitude, (or worse such as complacency or withdrawal,) of the citizenry greatly serves those who might wish to inject a big idea or sweeping into a community while said community's attention is focused elsewhere.

***

As for sweeping change, one can maneuver via google to learn what other communities in the United States have activated and today sustain a vigorous multiplicity of discussions about civic matters using a virtual web forum.

There are forums out there like the Observation Deck. Not as many as one might expect; none with the Deck's distinctive 'cognitive character' (...the way I qualify interpersonal stuff,) and zero coming off the platform of an all volunteer newspaper stewarded by a crazy big illuminary with his heart and devotion to his community on his sleeve. ...and there are more than a few other peeps similarly disposed and activated and on a mission, on various missions.

I submit: we're in the midst of a big idea and sweeping change just do to this! Here. Now.

Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 10:30 am
by dl meckes
Can I be wary of The Tyranny of Good Intentions?

Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 11:00 am
by Stephen Calhoun
Dl, being sure that you can be wary, I would suppose anyone should be wary too.

Good intentions possess shadows too? Right?

But, since bad intentions are an even less attractive alternative...

Dollar Tree

Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 11:48 am
by Bill Call
Joan Roberts wrote:Mr O.

It seems to me that before we can "plan" we need to determine what our goals are, and from what I see and hear, we're not even close to agreeing on that.
What are the goals? Increase jobs? Replace or rejuvenate housing? Destination retail to bring dollars in? Convenience retail to keep them from going out? Build the tax base? Prettify? Utilize vacant space or brownfields? Shore up shaky neighborhoods? Improve city services?
Then we have to decide what our commtment is going to be, and that's when things really get hairy. Taxes? TIFs? Eminent domain? Studies? Consultants?


I agree. Many people were opposed to the income tax increase not because they opposed a tax increase but because they opposed spending more money without a plan of action.

This city is uniquely positioned to prosper. Lakewood has above average education and income levels, a strong property tax base and a citizenry willing to spend money on a plan. Where is the plan?

Can empty store fronts be an Aldi, a Trader Joe's or a Dress Barn?
Would it take a little help from the City?

Ken:

You are right on about Dollar Tree and other similar stores. If 70% of the population would rather shop at Wal Mart the remaining 30% ares a large market. Think of Wal Mart as the Spanish Armada and the competition as the English fleet. Wal Mart operates under very tight margins and is more vulnerable than people think.

Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 11:52 am
by dl meckes
Stephen Calhoun wrote:But, since bad intentions are an even less attractive alternative...
In the example of planning for Lakewood's future, who posesses a bad intention? What I see as a bad intention might be someone's idea of a Really Good Idea.

You submit "we're in the midst of a big idea and sweeping change just do to this! Here. Now."

Who is "we"?

Is there one definable "big idea"?

Is your interpretation of "sweeping change" the same as mine? Do we even agree there is a definable "sweeping change"?

People have been talking (and arguing) with each other since we could grunt and point.

Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 12:04 pm
by john crino
Kenneth Warren wrote:Suzanne:

I am not much of a shopper. I didn't dream a Dollar Tree for the edge of the Emerald Canyon.



While living in nyc I read an article speaking of the decline of a neighborhood. Big part of the equation was the emergence of Dollar stores and nail salons.
Madison ave already has 2 dollar stores.

Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 12:50 pm
by Joan Roberts
Stephen Calhoun wrote:Joan.

You supply an excellent snapshot of many of the possible motives, goals, and categories which can promote development.

Lakewood sees no particular need for big ideas or sweeping change.


Here, on the other hand, you make a sweeping statement that evokes in me wonderment about what actual data you have to support the assertion.



.


You're correct. I should have qualified my statement with the preface, "My sense is...."
For evidence however, I wlll simply point to the people we elect to run our city. None of them, I believe, has suggested or promoted "big ideas or sweeping changes" yet incumbents tend to get re-elected on a near-universal basis. Our previous Mayor had a big idea (although many would consider it a bad one) and her efforts were rewarded with a pink slip. a chilling lesson for future "big thinkers", wouldn't you agree?
Similarly, orbit-stopping referenda tend to be defeated while more prosaic ones pass.
In the end, our civic direction will be determined not by a message board (as fun as it might be to participate) but by the people we OFFICIALLY empower to act on our behalf. Up to now, we've been choosing the "default mode".
No predictions here. I couldn't even get the Super Bowl right.

Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 9:33 am
by Kenneth Warren
John:

There’s no need for nail-biting over the impact of a Dollar Tree on the edge of Emerald Canyon. I saw the Dollar Tree ad announcing the opening of the Rocky River Dollar Tree in today’s Plain Dealer. There was an immensely comforting image – a young man in a blazer, looking like an English teacher from Saint Ignatius, with a bundle of Valentine’s Day balloons, coming in at a price point below a dozen roses.

Now I guess you picked up the Nail Salon/Dollar Store There Goes the Neighborhood meme from snippy New York magazine, while you were bunkered in Brooklyn.

But again we are taking Dollar Tree, a big positioning difference.

Stores are in North Olmstead and Rocky River.

You might wish to read this economic development in several negative ways: Either they are going down while Lakewood is going up. The western suburbs of Cuyahoga County are going down

I refuse to read the good news on Lakewood’s Laizzes Fair economic front as bad.

As you know I am a New York mutt - German, Irish, Italian, with an apocryphal Dutch line that lays claim to the Trinity Church property. My great great grandfather had a Brooklyn flophouse, quite possibily the one you owned.

Mutts like me think New York magazine is bogus, a mirage-making machine for opportunists and wash-a-shores.

I have seen the Nail Salons rise in Queens, signaling a shift to Asiatic ethnic groups. That’s not the end of the neighborhood but the beginning of another chapter in the migrant mania that drives the churn in the Big Apple and its boroughs.

So don’t get depressed.

In Lakewood there is churn but insufficient numbers of Wall Street office femmes and vixens to invite the influx of Nail Salons you evidently suggest would signal the end of Lakewood as we know it or would prefer to grow it.

Lakewood has always reminded me more of Queens than Brooklyn. It's been that way for me when I moved here more than twenty years ago and although lacking the Asiatic and Indian populations that have swelled the borough over the past twenty five years the same to some degree now.

In fact Dr. Calhoun, who through the tender bona fides of Boasian anthropology sees the United Nations of Lakewood in the library's technology center, mentioned yesterday that he met a recently retired NYC Yugoslavian cab driver, who moved from Queens to Lakewood for a happy and affordable retirement.

Kenneth Warren

Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 11:57 am
by john crino
I think the important thing here is that it is too bad we are so excited about a Dollar store moving into Lakewood because to me that signifys that we have very little else to be exceited about here when it comes to economy or jobs or development.
I've said it before, the Y,the Library, Rockport, the Dollar store,Dave's Cosmic subs,bela dubby are all fine but how about something that will create jobs and tax revenue?
I also believe Dollar stores search out a lower economic demographic which in the absence of any other revenue or job producing development or something else a little more quality oriented show that Lakewood is not far behind Euclid in quality of life.
Call me a snob but I want the best for Lakewood not "whatever we can get". Hate to bring up the West End,especially because I was not even living in the state when that was going on and I do not know the details but it sounds like Lakewood missed out on something there.

Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 1:01 pm
by Jim O'Bryan
john crino wrote:...Call me a snob but I want the best for Lakewood not "whatever we can get". Hate to bring up the West End,especially because I was not even living in the state when that was going on and I do not know the details but it sounds like Lakewood missed out on something there.



John you snob.

Perception is everything. When I grew up in Lakewood we had three of four Dime Stores. It was not a reflection on the city that all we had were dimes to spend it was a catchy name. the Medic that was there did have a pharmacy, but was a total dive filled with stuff at $1.50 that we can now get for $1. :look at Marc's home of water damaged tape, and other crap. Those are places that should be talked about.

The Westend! 49% of Lakewood does not even want to hear the FACTS on how good that would have been for the city. This year, we would have made nothing. For the sake of not alienating 49% of the members I will do this with you over coffee and chocolate cake.

I know you are not a snob, but you did move back to the Buckeye state with that New York frame of mind.

Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 1:34 pm
by Jeff Endress
John

On the snob thing.....

River (where you just might find a snob or two....or someone who turns up their nose at Lakewood) has a brand spankin' new Dollar Store. Right next to Ford's Clothier and Minotti's. I don't see it as a slap. Would I rather have LL Bean? Sure. But any productive business (unless its a check cashing store) beats an empty storefront.

Jeff