Ohio/Lakewood reopenings

[pj bennett]

I drove past Edgewater Park on Monday around 4:15 p.m. It was a relatively nice day, and the beach, the trails, and the new building were PACKED!! There must have been at least 2,000 people at the park. I couldn't see any evidence of social distancing. We are doomed as a species if this behavior continues. And I am personally pissed that the Metroparks aren't doing a better job of policing their parks.

I took a drive through the Metroparks yesterday, in the name of keeping my car battery charged. The park was packed. The amount of traffic was incredible, and many people walking on the path were not practicing social distancing. All the cyclists were on the road, which slowed down traffic, because of course, cyclists cannot keep up with traffic. It was anything but, a relaxing drive through nature.

[Jim O'Bryan]

Photo of Ohio from space.

Looked at the map 5 times, still only see one Ohio..

Dan, am I getting closer to an answer here?

204cd6a181fc3d797a6f3174e66d9f83.jpg

Closer? Yes. Cigar? No.

When I look at this map, I see vastly different needs in this Ohio. And I see the guv's compromise as largely out of touch with all. The borders don't break down as neatly as New York's, but some places like here in Cuyahoga need continued strong limitations, while others need hardly any at all.

Dan

When I look at a photo of Ohio I see no lines?! You see those are drawn by human, not really there.

My point was, and I am reaching for my lighter, and cigar cutter, that people travel, each of those little shapes have people that travel outside of the lines they are in. And sooner or later they come to county seats, state capitals, etc. So the lines have very little to do with actual spread. Except point of contacts and chances to spread. With that said, you open one county it will flood into others bringing the virus home.

I was watching a NetFlix special last night on Corona Virus. Season 1, Episode 1. I would encourage everyone to watch it. It will open your eyes while giving hope for light at the end of the tunnel. A tunnel that is as long as we make it. And that is the truth.

We have to reopen at some point. But to do so anywhere without proper testing and tracers is simple ridiculous.

The meme posted that makes the most sense explaining this is creating a safe to pee spot in a public pool. It will move, and soon be everywhere.

The real problem is the number of mixed messages out there. Bridget is the only one on the Deck I know of that really has gotten it since day one. Stay home stay away from people. Make sure you are not sick with it. Then wait for everyone else to follow suit. Now, we have a small grasp of what is going on. If we could do that for say 4 weeks, everyone, and they work on tests, then we could emerge and start things up slowly.

But no one is testing, all the numbers you are seeing are bullshit. You are seeing the number of people sick tested. Not the number of people. With a 2-4 week incubation before becoming sick, and many people carrying the disease never showing symptoms anything less is suicide, and a quick trip back to shutdown.

Now the good news, while there are no real corona virus vaccines, and most immunity in a corona virus last 1.5 years tops. I see this quickly becoming a flu like disease where everyone gets shots yearly. One of the most fascinating parts of the show was a real graph of all the big viruses over the decades based on death rate and ease of transmission. This is not at easy to transmit as the measles or small pox. But is about as deadly right now as the measles.

What freaked everyone was two things. Both worth mentioning. The first was that WHO, and the USA with others have scientists and doctors in China collecting bats and charting the over 1,000 viruses they can carry. This is done with the concept of getting the vaccine going before it happens. This is what is going on at Oxford University with their "head start." They were working on a vaccine for MERS and SARS and other corona viruses in general. Now comes the scary part, out of the 19 variations of Crorona Viruses, COVID-19, they thought this was the least dangerous and had ignored it. When they went back and did the tests, they found out that it was in fact #19 with a mutation. Something they are very good at doing. I posted this site early on... Next Strain https://nextstrain.org/ here they are tracking the various strains of COVID-19. Up over 8 as I write this. This is how they found out that America caught COVID-19 from Italy before China. Play the video of the map showing start and spread. To get back to where we started and that cigar. Watch it jump those lines too. Bringing it to every county in Ohio.

If you want to battle this for years and hope for a vaccine, then relax the stay at home. If you want to beat this, EVERYONE STAYS IN until the tests are ready.

,

[Jim O'Bryan]

Dan

I remembered your answer from Gov. Coumo months ago.

They had to close down the tri-state area. Because they found out that people in infected areas would bleed into surrounding areas that were open for shopping, dining, etc. So each day people would bring in their exposed selves spend the day or the weekend and go back to NYC for another chance to get it.

This is what caused the explosion in the Tri-State area. That was over 3 state lines.

Same with DeWine saying, no to people in PA. coming into Ohio for booze.

.

[Dan Alaimo]

Jim
I picked up some cigarillos for you Thursday afternoon, but then I saw a second post from you, and that deserves a cigar, but an exploding cigar. You've uncovered the source of much of my thinking on Covid trends, which I've been trying to keep on the down low. Why? The name Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York, will prompt an explosion from many of our Progressive, Bernie Sanders-supporting friends in Lakewood. So handle that cigar with care. I watch Cuomo most every day and find his information right on point. Many would agree that he is filling a national leadership gap. Others would propose other governors. Fine, but I hear little about them.

In New York, the Tri-State area is a huge concern with lots of population movement. A northern suburb, New Rochelle in Westchester, was one of the first hot spots. New York has joined with New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Rhode Island to coordinate reopening.

As you mention, eventually, we must reopen. That gets you a cigarillo. As Cuomo says, we must be smart about it. He also also notes the different rates of infection in different regions of the state. The New York metro area is around 22% last I heard, while Rochester (where I have an interest) is around 10%. Buffalo and Albany more. Farm country less. Kind of like Ohio. In an early reopening move, New York is allowing elective surgeries in areas of less concern where demand for hospital beds is less. Ohio is doing it statewide. See what I mean about a regional approach being smarter?

The space view map didn't cut it for countering the regional lines idea, and really the virus knows no lines, but will follow human activity. However, the map you show does have lines: Indiana, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Kentucky...

As Bridget points out in another thread, we in Cuyahoga are simply not ready yet, the same for Columbus, and there's a hot spot north of Columbus I'm having trouble identifying (is it Marysville where Honda has stopped production because of Covid?). Statewide, I just don't know.

It seems to me that many parts of this state have not yet reached the apex, let alone a plateau. Maybe there have been some less horrible numbers for a few days, but we're hardly ready for statewide reopening. Some very selective reopenings maybe, but not as much as Kemp's Georgia. As we reopen we need to be smart about it, especially in a densely populated city like Lakewood.

Cuomo wraps up each of his presentations, before taking press questions, by saying to get through this and emerge better for the experience we need to be tough, smart, disciplined, unified and loving. I hope DeWine gets that message.

[ryan costa]

These people have extended it four weeks.
https://fox8.com/news/coronavirus/ohios ... her-month/

trust but verify.
https://www.quora.com/Can-a-beard-trimmer-trim-hair

stock up on vicks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jKiq6WGjtY

[Bridget Conant]

Maybe the Feds aren’t telling us the truth. All their “optimism and happy talk” is just for show

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.co ... 1588172780

[pj bennett]

These people have extended it four weeks.
https://fox8.com/news/coronavirus/ohios ... her-month/

stock up on vicks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jKiq6WGjtY

Omg....I just clicked on the YouTube link and proceeded to watch the clip on Vicks and the next five of his skits. Terrific! I was in stitches

[John Myers]

...there's a hot spot north of Columbus I'm having trouble identifying (is it Marysville where Honda has stopped production because of Covid?).

Take a ride on 23 instead of 36: You're probably thinking of Marion, home of the Marion Correctional Institution.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/in ... s-n1194786

The large number of cases within the prison have expanded outward into the community.

[Dan Alaimo]

Maybe the Feds aren’t telling us the truth. All their “optimism and happy talk” is just for show

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.co ... 1588172780

They don't want to talk about a second wave which will come sooner than later thanks to unwise reopenings. At least they are preparing.

For better or mostly worse, when death trends are bigger news than infection rates, we're approaching an end point.

[Stan Austin]

Note to the Mayor and Council: If we can super ramp our own Health Department we will be more able to make good health based decisions.