The Vision Thing

[Mark Kindt]

Thank you, gentlemen, for your comments. I will address them in the main today as we go along. Mr. Baker's comments will be particularly relevant to my thread today or tomorrow as we explore negative effects on taxpayers and businesses that pay taxes.

Mr. Mager has a fine idea, but the east side suburbs got there first.

I will address Mr. Alaimo's observation next.

In the early Twentieth Century, when Lakewood civic leaders planned the building of the City's public hospital this must have been done with a sense of importance and pride. Does any commercial development of the former hospital site give us that sense of importance and pride. Probably not. This is the triumph of the mundane over the crucial. I'm pretty sure that we all understand that. (Given the choice: Would you rather buy a sweater or have a broken ankle fixed?)

Given the prior historic use of the former hospital site as an invaluable community asset in service to the public for more than a century, clearly there are strong incentives to continue the use of that site for the larger benefit of the public good, beyond mere commercial development.

As I have so far presented in this thread, we can each identify reasonable and valuable public uses for the former hospital site that contribute to the public good in ways that a commercial development will not.

In public policy "speak", that means that their are "qualitative" reasons to develop the former hospital site in ways that leverage existing public assets as well as other public assets and institutions to do a significant public development project at the site. My example concepts posted above illustrate this.

Next, we will put on our thinking caps and pretend to be policy "wonks" as we look at "quantitative" issues surrounding the proposed mixed use development. You will need a pencil, a calculator and your reading spectacles for this.

[Mark Kindt]

How Many New Apartments Does Lakewood Need?

We can answer this question by looking at several publicly-available documents. One from the federal government. One from the City.

I have attached them for your use. That way you can double-check my argument against the actual documents.

[Mark Kindt]

How Many New Apartments Does Lakewood Need?

Let's start with some background numbers on population figures:

Cuyahoga County: 1,252,000

Lakewood: 51,768

That means that Lakewood only has about a little over 4% of the population of the county.

Lakewood needs about 36 new apartments each year. And, it could be even less.

Here's the data:

[Mark Kindt]

In this 3-year U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development report, two federal economists (T. Kukawski, T. McDonald) forecast demand for rental units in Cuyahoga County at a required 2,635 units to satisfy estimated demand.

We can see that if we allocate Lakewood's share of this demand by its share of Cuyahoga County population (4.13%), then Lakewood's share of the demand is 109 units over the three year period.

This is an annual demand of about 36 or 37 new rental units. It may actually be less when we look at other data in this HUD forecast.

The forecast states that the entire demand for the first two years of the forecast has already been met by the 2,100 units that are already under construction, leaving only a balance of 535 units not yet built.

The Lakewood share of the units to-be-built in the forecast would be 22 or 23 units.

Based on these figure we can conclude that the current demand for apartment units in Lakewood has been more than fully met by current construction of the 144 units at Lakewood Center North.

There is no specific need for the conversion of the former hospital site into apartment units.

More importantly, there is no market failure that would come anywhere near justifying the proposed public subsidies for these proposed apartments.

Lakewood's population is slowly declining and the demand for new apartment units can be met by the ordinary business activities of builders without the extraordinary intervention of the City of Lakewood.

[Mark Kindt]

Let me summarize my argument up to this point before we move on to our review of the City of Lakewood document:

Argument No. 1. There is a strong qualitative argument that the former hospital site be redeveloped for purposes that are broadly public, civic, beneficial and innovative. (An entire essay on this topic was previously published in the Lakewood Observer in 2016. I won't repeat those arguments beyond what I have already posted in this thread.)

Argument No. 2. The quantitative data provided by the federal government does not support the proposed construction of new apartments at the former hospital site.

[james fitzgibbons]

Re: Opioid Center. I told the mayor to do this, at the Lakewood Dem Club meeting where he commented about our city having to deal with: regionalism and the opioid crisis.

He didn't want to hear it. He just maintained his painted-on smiley-face and said nothing.

You mean his Mike Pence face?

[james fitzgibbons]

Seems that what we need is a working hospital with some beds and a treatment center dealing with opioid addiction as Marguerite said. Of course that would not be allowed thanks to Mayor Summers.

[Dan Alaimo]

A side note in regard to apartments.
There's some question about whether Lakewood will reach the important 50,000 population threshold in the next census in 2020. That's worth considering, but not in relation to the hospital property. It's unlikely that many apartments built there will have occupants by the time the census takers come around. And I don't know that they will add that many residents, and not enough to offset the losses from 1000-1500 jobs gone with the hospital (certainly some lived in Lakewood and had to move on).

While public use is a fine idea for the property, a commercial development that brings a significant number of jobs and people to Lakewood, along with immediate payroll taxes and eventual property taxes, is the best use for the long term. If that can be combined with citizen friendly park-scaping, all the better.

And I'd like to see the city address the question about the 2020 census. Housing refugees would be a quick fix, but there's Trump.

[Mark Kindt]

High Technology Research Consortium for Autonomous Vehicles

A future Lakewood Observer story:

"Dateline: Columbus (Oh). Ohio Governor John Kasich announced that Battelle Memorial Institute would lead a consortium of Ohio universities and Ohio manufacturers to promote research into the manufacturing of autonomous vehicles to push Ohio into a leadership position in this 21st Century high technology arena. After negotiations with the City of Lakewood, the consortium will announce its lease of 6 acres of property in Lakewood, Ohio and invest $100 million in a 7 story research building. Testing grounds will be acquired from NASA near Hopkins International Airport. The Mayor of Lakewood announced that the projected would bring between 500 and 750 high-paying jobs to the City. [etc.]"

Guys, I'm not merely suggesting a park. I'm suggesting that there are dozens of major project ideas that are infinitely superior to the proposed mixed-use development.

Why aren't we taking advantage of this "once-in-a-50-year-opportunity" to do something just as leading edge as the hospital was when it was built 100 years ago.

That's the point, I'm trying to make. This is the opportunity to really put Lakewood on the map and claim a stake in the future!

(However, I am most confident that the city administration will spend between $15 and $30 million dollars to facilitate the constructions of apartments that we don't need. Rest assured of that.)

[Mark Kindt]

Now For A Sad, But Comic Interlude

"Who is the largest employer in Lakewood?"

Guess --

In 2017, the consultant for the City of Lakewood is telling the city administration and the citizens of Lakewood that the largest employer in the City of Lakewood is the Cleveland Clinic Foundation (!) Yikes!

[Mark Kindt]

And, again, just how many of these employers are in Lakewood? RTA Headquarters? Really?

Does anyone in the planning department actually read this stuff?

Tomorrow, I promise that we will have more fun with this City of Lakewood consultant report. It's mostly just a puff piece.

Thank you for your continuing interest in this thread. I know it's nerdy!

[Dan Alaimo]

High Technology Research Consortium for Autonomous Vehicles

A future Lakewood Observer story:

"Dateline: Columbus (Oh). Ohio Governor John Kasich announced that Battelle Memorial Institute would lead a consortium of Ohio universities and Ohio manufacturers to promote research into the manufacturing of autonomous vehicles to push Ohio into a leadership position in this 21st Century high technology arena. After negotiations with the City of Lakewood, the consortium will announce its lease of 6 acres of property in Lakewood, Ohio and invest $100 million in a 7 story research building. Testing grounds will be acquired from NASA near Hopkins International Airport. The Mayor of Lakewood announced that the projected would bring between 500 and 750 high-paying jobs to the City. [etc.]"

Guys, I'm not merely suggesting a park. I'm suggesting that there are dozens of major project ideas that are infinitely superior to the proposed mixed-use development.

Why aren't we taking advantage of this "once-in-a-50-year-opportunity" to do something just as leading edge as the hospital was when it was built 100 years ago.

That's the point, I'm trying to make. This is the opportunity to really put Lakewood on the map and claim a stake in the future!

(However, I am most confident that the city administration will spend between $15 and $30 million dollars to facilitate the constructions of apartments that we don't need. Rest assured of that.)

Amen, Brother Kindt.

[cmager]

The new headquarters for the Cleveland Clinic Foundation. World-class architecture, high-paying jobs, and artwork! Hundreds focused on wealth extraction and community wellness.

Mr. Mager has a fine idea, but the east side suburbs got there first.

Clearly I was channeling the idea of a "CCF HQ2" in my proposal.
So, why not go for the real HQ2 - that of Amazon HQ2. Amazon's RFQ demands 8M square feet of land for their build-out. To get to 8M square feet, Lakewood will need to pony up the plot of land bounded by the railroad tracks on the north, Franklin Blvd on the south, Mars Ave on the west, and Chesterland Ave on the east. (You do the math. Hey, I did it - once)

Yes, it wipes out St. Eds, but keeps most of Kaufman Park (alternately, save St. Eds/lose Kaufman and take from Lakeland to Elbur). It makes moot the lane-striping controversy on Warren Road, and the debate over the the Board of Education building. The Library and Grant School can become part of Amazon University. Einstein finally gets a higher and better use, Geiger's is a loss, but Amazon builds around The Root Cafe.

Publicly, Lakewood maybe too late to the HQ2 party (by 120 years or so), but let's send a "Team Diving Catch" delegation led by noted analyst Jenn Pae. Brand Team Diving Catch by hiring Kenny Lofton. Propose a secretive cabal of 4-8-12 insiders/crap lawyers to specify the land boundaries.

5.7 acres of land - pshaw! Go for THE development prize of western civilization! 184 acres is the giant cleanse that will make any Build Lakewood supporter drool in envy! We're talking about a 75-year opportunity - go big or go home!

[Jim O'Bryan]

Join me again tomorrow, when we will do something really policy wonky. Two federal economists will forecast for us the need for apartment space in our region.

In the meantime, I encourage you to post your concept ideas for the redevelopment of the former hospital site.

Mark

While I love your exercise here, you are missing many of the pieces that also need to be placed on the table.

In reverse order.

A plan that makes up the taxes of those that were employed at Lakewood Hospital, the Professional Building, Lakewood Center North, The Post Office and now Board of Education Building. A very serious need, and whatever it is needs to generate a ton in income tax.

A plan that generates as much sales tax, which might not be as high as income tax but is pretty high, when you add in the various buildings and support.

An anchor that is as strong as everything in those spaces. Hundreds if not thousands of people a day were drawn to the area, for services or to come in with people receiving services. Restaurants, gift shops, food and convenience stores.

They also need to be of the same vein, or working together enough to make it happen. Hospital traffic grew up over 50 years so that many if not all of the surrounding businesses many on the verge of failing need to be replaced with the same sort of businesses. OR such a grand plan to replace them all in one move.

On the above list the only thing I can envision is a massive apartment complex for "wealthy" families. Of course there are many of these going up right now in areas that also have the same draw. The School at Coventry and Euclid Heights is about to become a high rise catering to baby boomers that want to recapture the Coventry experience.

But the hardest to accomplish, guarantee success, if it is a one shot deal, it makes success out the box important. Without a key figure or draw, it is at best a crap shoot, by people who have had not much success at gambling, raising money, or drawing people in.

We got lucky with Lakewood Public Library. Kenneth Warren had the vision and the smarts to get Robert AM Stern in to design, build and help promote the building, making the library easily the draw and a success that was far greater than what was there before. Even when books, videos and CDs were on the downslide with the advent of streaming and online reading and borrowing.

When I sat down with the Mayor in January of 2015, I agreed with the idea, any money coming back to the community must not be allowed to go into the general fund. That there must be a way to dream and do something big. Big enough to put Lakewood on the map in Northern Ohio, and the ever shrinking in population Cuyahoga County. We are not talking MOCA, we are not talking Kings Island, both while creating interest and even mass traffic would fall way short on what Lakewood desperately needs right now. One creates a stir, the other created traffic but with a relatively short shelf life compare to the 100 year hospital. And who is the superstar that can both envision it, and carry it off?

Of course also during that discussion I was told, millions if not hundreds of millions would be available to help with this. Enough money where one could have simply banked it, and the interest alone would slow the hemorrhaging of money and allow the city enough time to make sure they had it right. At no point did the Mayor say the truth, which is basically $0.00 from the $178 million dollar publicly-owned business would be coming back to the community. That the city would be in the red nearly instantly.

It would also bear noting, that I said to the Mayor, the group that must not end up with the private monies in the LHF and new Non-profit, must not be the very people that are now controlling it for one simple reason. ZERO success. Their only ability was to set up programs that were parasitical to the city. In other words needing additional money to keep it going which would be another draw against community funds and grants that would be desperately needed elsewhere. The only success they had had in 10+ years was buying their ways into programs to pay more for meaningless designations that needed a paid staff to implement and even more community funds to continue. Prime Example "Mainstreet" which we had to pay for to be part of, that was sold to the public as "winning it" and then a yearly subscription for more "awards" and the necessity of a paid staff to manage PR, handshaking, back slapping, and other community award giving to each other. This then was morphed into "Downtown" during the "Mainstreet" days, so that they could continue their business of asking for and managing community grants and awarding themselves for placing bows on parking meters.

Hospitals were the gold investment of the day, at the turn of the century, an idea that could bring people to within 5 square miles and feel safe, while providing real jobs, real infrastructure, and real benefits that even while being tax-exempt itself had enough of a pull to easily set off their own lack of providing direct flows into the city coffers.

What is that next 100 year gold mine? We lost on Amazon, and who knows how long it does what we would need? In an ever decreasing county in a massive war for residents would or could a high rise for the ultra rich have any success? In the past 15 years we are witnessing the death of retail, followed quickly by the death of office space need. What is that magnet, or even that black hole which has enough gravitational pull that even while not directly adding to the community it brings enough light, spending, and interest that at the event horizon it is blinding in success?

One shot, one shooter, one brief blink of an eye to hit the target. Do we even have the right people pulling the trigger? The mayor, council and their enablers have squandered it all in one chance instead of ten years of wind down and planning. It should make us all very nervous when the very people that took us from ten plus years to days now beg for ideas, or jump at ill-conceived plans by mediocre players whose only real reason for being there is that they are friends of the mayor. Especially as the private foundations whose sole reasons for existing in the past were to keep the gold mine mining, are now set and determined to take their foundation money, which was our money, which is the only money left from the deal, into surrounding communities.

I am not a praying man, but God help us.

.

[Brian Essi]

It would also bear noting, that I said to the Mayor, the group that must not end up with the private monies in the LHF and new Non-profit, must not be the very people that are now controlling it for one simple reason. ZERO success.

I am not a praying man, but God help us.

.

Mr. O'Bryan,

These two sentences make everything else you wrote superfluous.

1. The same "ZERO success" folks are in charge of the "Vision Thingy" and will continue to be in charge---- their perpetual and successive failures will soon been on display in the next two chapters (FPTF & Fitz Development) of the book Mr. Kindt says is only half written.

2. The only hope we have is divine intervention---and I am extremely proud of you that you have come the light and are now relying on God! This is truly "Good News" for Lakewood!